Is CPF a PONZI SCHEME?

MrBraun

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i am goign to tell u a fact. Ponzi like schemes are common anywhere a financial entity is involved

Madoff's Ponzi schem itself was inspired by ofiicial financial entities
 

goenitz33

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i am goign to tell u a fact. Ponzi like schemes are common anywhere a financial entity is involved

Madoff's Ponzi schem itself was inspired by ofiicial financial entities

Any reason why to dig on a Apr 2011 thread out ? :s22:
 

vin002

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I just found out from my friend, who is a finance professional, the meaning of PONZI SCHEME. We discussed the case of SUNSHINE EMPIRE where the boss ended up being charged.

Why dont ask your finance professional?

If he is a finance professional and in investment industry, he should give you an idea of how a portfolio works. Not every single investment in a portfolio need to make money. Of course, if one can do that, he will be a legend. Even WB can't ensure that all his investments make money. There are no such things as sure win investment.

What they need to do is to ensure that portfolio generate a returns that is higher than for the paid out of the CPF interest through various form of investment instrument.
 

ponpokku

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What they need to do is to ensure that portfolio generate a returns that is higher than for the paid out of the CPF interest through various form of investment instrument.

correct, by pure mathematics it can be done and has been done. seen at least 2 already. :s7:
 

dannytan87

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Any reason why to dig on a Apr 2011 thread out ? :s22:

haha he too free ma. This thread makes me wonder what will happen if temask become lehman brother. GLC become AIG and MAS become merril lynch. hoseibo. then you see some people will take private jet fly to some remote island in central america. even big big banks and conglomerate can fall, i dun think any company can be always on it feet forever.
 
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:o
Im lazy to read but I feel every where , every gov in every countries work like this ~

"They" the powerful rich finanical elites lay down this system which EVERYONE must follow ~

you have to trace back histories of why there are currency ~
who are rothschild families ~

blah blah blah ~
 

HunterXtreme

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I believe the answer is both yes and no
It is not a ponzi scheme outright but it works like a ponzi scheme because the fresh funds contributed from the working community will be paid out to the withdrawing community. This is because their investments are usually quite long term and it is impossible to en-cash that investment just to raise the funds to pay out to every individual retiree.

However, we can only speculate at what CPF does with our money... they do not offer transparency with their operation...
 

celsus

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if you read Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, he suggests finance has three types - hedge (stable), speculative (risk-taking) and ponzi (unstable) - and the degree of debt within the financial system is the determinant of these three types.

Certainly if CPF is in fact owing excess due to loss, it will enter the ponzi finance category, but we cannot know because govt keeps it absolutely hush hush anything to do with our reserves. Even our president not allowed to know :s22:
 

wMulew

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celsus

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All their money is invested in SG Government Bonds that are guaranteed by the SG Government using the Nation's Reserves. Currently the SG reserves > CPF amount.

http://app.mof.gov.sg/data/cmsresource/Feature%20Articles/Singapore%20Government%20Borrowings%20An%20Overview.pdf

Bonds are a form of debt, albeit a relatively safe one from an individual's perspective. Debt owed by our own government, however, means that it is ultimately safe because our government can tax or inflate its way out of debt - which is a losing proposition for the citizen, who happens to also be the individual "investing" in the bond indirectly. So the amount of risk borne by the citizen is "safe" from a micro individual point of view, but enormous from a macro perspective based on how the government uses its loans (aka bonds) for. And for these purposes we are not even allowed to know, nor is our President.

TLDR: $inkies are $toopid.
 

yeokiwi

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Well, Temasek and GIC suck in investing.
The gov should let each individual singaporean do his/her investment.

How well can Singaporeans invest?

Year 2011
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 45%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 38%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 17%
http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/NR/rdonlyre...B6361611DF/0/CPFISProfitandLossReport2011.pdf



Year 2010
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 49%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 37%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 14%
http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/NR/rdonlyre...2FC1BD0AF4/0/CPFISProfitandLossReport2010.pdf

Year 2009
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 52%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 35%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 13%
http://www.cpf.org.sg/NR/rdonlyres/...899FFF31FB/0/CPFISProfitandLossReport2009.pdf

Year 2008
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 49%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 31%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 20%
http://www.cpf.org.sg/NR/rdonlyres/...561B31470/0/CPFISProfitandLossReportDec08.pdf

Year 2007
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 43%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 29%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 28%
http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/NR/rdonlyres/D324F161-1F6A-4699-A6BA-C5ACA0E11C5F/0/IE_reportpl.pdf
 
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ponpokku

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Im lazy to read but I feel every where , every gov in every countries work like this ~

"They" the powerful rich finanical elites lay down this system which EVERYONE must follow ~

you have to trace back histories of why there are currency ~
who are rothschild families ~

blah blah blah ~

nah it cant stand. then how u explain paper currencies turning up earlier in china? that the rothschilds or the wadever elites are actually ah tiongs? =:p

sometimes angmohs spin doctors are so ignorant and lame. =:p
 

peterchan75

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nah it cant stand. then how u explain paper currencies turning up earlier in china? that the rothschilds or the wadever elites are actually ah tiongs? =:p

sometimes angmohs spin doctors are so ignorant and lame. =:p

The current financial system is based on rot-child. Of course, the Chinese made use of paper currencies during the Sung dynasty.. I think.
 

goenitz33

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Well, Temasek and GIC suck in investing.
The gov should let each individual singaporean do his/her investment.

How well can Singaporeans invest?

Year 2011
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 45%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 38%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 17%
http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/NR/rdonlyre...B6361611DF/0/CPFISProfitandLossReport2011.pdf



Year 2010
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 49%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 37%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 14%
http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/NR/rdonlyre...2FC1BD0AF4/0/CPFISProfitandLossReport2010.pdf

Year 2009
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 52%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 35%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 13%
http://www.cpf.org.sg/NR/rdonlyres/...899FFF31FB/0/CPFISProfitandLossReport2009.pdf

Year 2008
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 49%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 31%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 20%
http://www.cpf.org.sg/NR/rdonlyres/...561B31470/0/CPFISProfitandLossReportDec08.pdf

Year 2007
Members with losses (less than 0% return) 43%
Members with gains (less than 2.5% return) 29%
Members with gains (> 2.5% return) 28%
http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/NR/rdonlyres/D324F161-1F6A-4699-A6BA-C5ACA0E11C5F/0/IE_reportpl.pdf

Yup if only i had more prior to 2007 to invest.

Net gain at 2007 was at 350%

:s13:

2008 - 2011 not as good though 10-12%
 

ponpokku

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I believe the answer is both yes and no
It is not a ponzi scheme outright but it works like a ponzi scheme because the fresh funds contributed from the working community will be paid out to the withdrawing community. This is because their investments are usually quite long term and it is impossible to en-cash that investment just to raise the funds to pay out to every individual retiree.

However, we can only speculate at what CPF does with our money... they do not offer transparency with their operation...

one typical tell-tale sign of a ponzi scheme is promised high returns within a relative short period, which obviously not in line with major savings schemes like banks, CPF, social security etc, or even govt bonds.

long term investments etc, the interests is for the risk factor and inflation. so no, CPF doesnt work like a ponzi scheme.
 

leonaheidern

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I'm 29 now.

I wonder if I will have to live to age 95 and beyond before I see my CPF money the way the rules keep changing every 2-3 years or so.
 

goenitz33

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I'm 29 now.

I wonder if I will have to live to age 95 and beyond before I see my CPF money the way the rules keep changing every 2-3 years or so.

no need to live to 29.

just take it as Tax that can be used for Housing / Medical Subsidy.
 

ponpokku

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I'm 29 now.

I wonder if I will have to live to age 95 and beyond before I see my CPF money the way the rules keep changing every 2-3 years or so.

dun blow out of proportion lah, if u really desperate just denouce citizenship and u will see every cent of it. :s13:
 

HunterXtreme

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All their money is invested in SG Government Bonds that are guaranteed by the SG Government using the Nation's Reserves. Currently the SG reserves > CPF amount.

http://app.mof.gov.sg/data/cmsresource/Feature%20Articles/Singapore%20Government%20Borrowings%20An%20Overview.pdf

Singapore gets a very good credit rating internationally because it does not have any external debt. All debts are internal... SG govt borrows money from our own people. CPF lends money to govt and gets a guaranteed return.

Now what does the govt do with all these monies that form our reserve? Let me guess.... Managed by GIC and Temasek of course! Its not hard to do the sum 1+1 = 2.... however, CPF insists that our money is never handed directly to GIC or Temasek for investment... which is true in a sense. This is what I mean by the lack of transparency.....
 

HunterXtreme

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one typical tell-tale sign of a ponzi scheme is promised high returns within a relative short period, which obviously not in line with major savings schemes like banks, CPF, social security etc, or even govt bonds.

long term investments etc, the interests is for the risk factor and inflation. so no, CPF doesnt work like a ponzi scheme.

when MLM first appeared, they claim its perfectly legal too,
that it is not a pyramid scheme because there is a product involved

you see, these people are very smart are tweaking the formula to disguise their intent
you are right, CPF is not a ponzi scheme based on the definitions you gave but what if they tweaked the formula somewhat? "promised high returns within a relative short period" will surely be uncovered quickly since such deception is not sustainable for long.

CPF's rates of 2.5% and 4% are quite high considering bank deposits only give 0.05% and bonds give roughly 1% only? If we were to find out, it will only be decades later...... and they kept increasing the retirement age + increasing minimum sum + CPF life annuity which is raising some suspicion don't you think so?
 
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