is usd rising or dropping in the near future?

FreedomAngelz

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The changes can be drastic depending on situation.

No one can predict what that situation can be.

It can be anything due to...
1) FED raising the interest rates
2) EURO collapsing
3) Major disasters
4) China and Russia dumping US treasuries
5) Collapse of stock market (bubble)
6) QE announcement

I am already very wary of the current trend of economic activities.
 

Obama486

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its very hard to predict the movement of forex...sometimes can just consider hedging and focus on picking the right stocks and bonds instead... no need worry too much about USD going up or down against SGD
 

Shiny Things

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Yes. Yes, it is rising or dropping.

Anyway, this is a ridiculously broad question, nobody knows the answer, but because I've just had my morning coffee and I'm in a good mood I'm going to gesture in the general direction of an answer. You got lucky.

Over the short term, I can't pick which way it's heading; that's ultimately driven by buyer-vs-seller flows, and I'm not close enough to the industry any more to make any sort of judgment about which way it's headed.

Over the longer term, though - say 1-2 years - I think it keeps going up. We've already had a pretty substantial USD rally, driven by a flood of assets into the US in anticipation of higher interest rates, and I think once the US actually starts hiking rates that flood is going to continue.

For years, investors have been borrowing USD at near-zero interest rates to invest in higher-yielding overseas assets; once the cost of those loans starts going up, they're going to start re-evaluating those investments - and if they cut their losses, that means they have to buy USD to repay the loans. So - USD goes up.
 

wondrdoggie

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Latest house views from JPMorgan and UBS is that the dollar will continue to appreciate against other currencies. The Euro, their view is that it will continue to show weakness, thereby the euro zone equities should gain from that. I have quite a lot of positions in USD so I hope it continues to go up! :)
 

jchua010

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I would say it would be roughly in the 1.3 to 1.5 range compared to SGD.

But dear friend, if we knew exactly how the USD will react, we'll not be talking and speculating about it but making millions from forex liao :p
 

SpinFire

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MAS is also expected to further loosen monetary policy in October. USDSGD will go up even further, maybe 1.40. SIBOR will follow suit
 

Perisher

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The dollar firmed against other major currencies on Wednesday, buoyed by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's reiteration that an interest rate hike remained likely this year as the economy improves.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/dollar-strengthens-as/1987624.html

Though not confirmed but it's repeated a second time. Anyway the operative words is Very likely. Wait for September to see.
 

IronMac

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Though not confirmed but it's repeated a second time. Anyway the operative words is Very likely. Wait for September to see.

As the WSJ pointed out, this particular speech highlighted China's situation much more than earlier speeches.

Anybody could see by CNY that China was slowing down fast. The Greece situation was a slow simmer that just exploded recently. The EU is still sickly despite the Brits having a good time. And, like I said before, Japan and Abenomics is a Potemkin village.

Is it all doom and gloom outside of the US? For the rest of this year, yes.

The Fed would be crazy to raise rates this year. Their trading partners are weak and a higher dollar will just make US exporters that much less competitive.
 

Perisher

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USD expected to rise further.
Pressure mounts for vulnerable SGD as regional currencies stumble
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/pressure-mounts-vulnerable-sgd-regional-034000381.html

It will experience greater weakness against the greenback.
The Singapore Dollar will remain under pressure in coming months as regional currencies continue to weaken, a report by BMI Research revealed.

“The minefield in which the SGD is navigating is unlikely to improve in the near future, and it is for this reason that we expect the currency to fall to SGD1.3900/USD by the end of the year,” BMI Research said.

Although the SGD enjoyed a brief respite in April to May, BMI Research believes that the aggressive depreciation of many of its trade-weighted peer currencies will cause the SGD to further weaken against the greenback.

For instance, the Malaysian ringgit has lost 20.2% versus the USD over the past year, while the Indonesian rupiah has slipped by 15.9%. Other currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen has fallen by 17.5% and 20.9% over the past year.
Altogether, these four countries comprise approximately 31.0% of demand for Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX), and therefore are likely to have prominent positions within the SGD's trade-weighted basket.

“To be sure, the currency remains fundamentally supported by Singapore's very high current account surplus, which we forecast to actually rise to 20.1% of GDP (versus 19.1% in 2014) owing to significantly lower oil prices.

Nevertheless, the Singapore dollar is susceptible to a wide range of other factors which have conspired to overwhelm the appreciatory effects of the country's large external surplus, and we believe that these factors will continue to dominate into 2016. As such, we have downgraded our average forecast on the SGD to SGD1.4100/USD in 2016, from SGD1.3700/USD previously,” BMI Research said.
 

Perisher

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1.38 liao... Huat arh to all foreign USD holders.
 
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