World Economy Discussions

FreedomAngelz

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A set of questions to discuss about the current and future world economy.

1) What do you think of Singapore likely economy performance for 2015 and the years that follow till 2020?

2) What's your prediction for the prices in energy market till end of 2015 (Up or down?)

3) Do you think Greece will stay with Euro currency or force to leave?

4) When do you think US FED will raise the interest rates?

5) Name 3 countries that has likelihood to perform the best in their economy for 2015?
 

Shiny Things

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1) What do you think of Singapore likely economy performance for 2015 and the years that follow till 2020?

It's gonna slow. Higher interest rates in the US will feed through the currency peg into Singapore, and that'll bring things down a bit. I'll say 3.25% GDP growth for 2015, and 3-4% for the rest of the decade (which is still a huge number, compared to Europe or Japan or America).

2) What's your prediction for the prices in energy market till end of 2015 (Up or down?)

WTI: down a bit as Cushing fills up and overflows. Brent: down a lot.

Ultimately, though, this is completely up to the Saudis; if they turn the taps off then it'll stabilise around current levels.

3) Do you think Greece will stay with Euro currency or force to leave?

I... honestly don't know. I think there's a significant chance they leave - call it one-in-three.

4) When do you think US FED will raise the interest rates?

20% chance they raise in July; 50% chance they raise by September; 20% chance they wait until 2016. (Incidentally I think that means the December 9950 Eurodollar calls are still expensive.)

5) Name 3 countries that has likelihood to perform the best in their economy for 2015?

The problem with playing games like this is that some of the countries with the highest GDP growth are absolute investment murderholes. Have a look at the top of this list. Qatar's getting incinerated because oil prices are falling. Mongolia's on the brink of not being able to service its sovereign debt after years of commodity-fueled expansion. Turkmenistan I know literally nothing about, so I won't comment. Ghana's been crippled by Ebola. Panama's economy is pretty much entirely driven by canal fees and tax-dodging; and then it's East Timor (civil war), Iraq (civil war plus psycho death cult), Solomon Islands (civil war), and Zimbabwe (economic disaster area run by a 90-year-old kleptocrat).

Moral of the story: a high economic growth rate is not necessarily good for stocks!

Anyway, probably China, then daylight, then I guess maybe India?
 
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IronMac

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A set of questions to discuss about the current and future world economy.

1) What do you think of Singapore likely economy performance for 2015 and the years that follow till 2020?

2) What's your prediction for the prices in energy market till end of 2015 (Up or down?)

3) Do you think Greece will stay with Euro currency or force to leave?

4) When do you think US FED will raise the interest rates?

5) Name 3 countries that has likelihood to perform the best in their economy for 2015?

1) Flat or 1-2% growth.

2) From several energy companies with ears on the ground they all expect WTI to rise to around USD70 by end of 2015. Who am I to argue? But, I don't think prices are going to stay as low as they are now.

3) Stay.

4) Not this year.

5) US, Philippines and India/Japan.
 

wondrdoggie

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According to the experts from my banks, not me... Top investment country conviction are:

US
Japan
India

Euro zone too but more uncertainties due to Greece.
China also to watch because of recent rate cut by 25 bps and linking to HK exchange.

Japan and India because they are big beneficiaries of the low oil prices which are expected to remain in 2015. All the oil producing countries will continue to suffer, like Malaysia. The U.S. on the other hand is still expected to lead in growth as recovery looks sustained.
 

haremdevil

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A set of questions to discuss about the current and future world economy.

1) What do you think of Singapore likely economy performance for 2015 and the years that follow till 2020?

2) What's your prediction for the prices in energy market till end of 2015 (Up or down?)

3) Do you think Greece will stay with Euro currency or force to leave?

4) When do you think US FED will raise the interest rates?

5) Name 3 countries that has likelihood to perform the best in their economy for 2015?

1) 2015 - < 2%....till 2020 will be between 2~3% (Their productivity drive will not have to much effort if they only focus on SME....they should start look at these *cough* "GLC" companies (ST, SIA, SMRT)

2) Will maintain for now, have to see the US presidential election who will take over Obama

3) Honestly speaking, I hope they leave, its a good thing for the World (but not for Europe:evil:) But from the determination from Euro, most likely they going to stay at least for another 1 year :frus:

4) Mid of 2015...

5) Export oriented countries - Indonesia, Philippines and Mexcio??
 

FreedomAngelz

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Some really great reply i`m seeing here. Let me give my take on this:

1) What do you think of Singapore likely economy performance for 2015 and the years that follow till 2020?
I think Singapore will benefit a bit from the drop in energy prices but its economy growth performance still largely boils down to how the rest of the world economy performance. Likelihood GDP growth to be 1-3% in 2015 and probably some negative GDP growth for the upcoming few years.

2) What's your prediction for the prices in energy market till end of 2015 (Up or down?)
My view is that OPEC want to destroy the Shale industries and they are close in achieving this goal. Likelihood that price will maintain at lower price point (below US$70) until end of 2015

3) Do you think Greece will stay with Euro currency or force to leave?
It depends on how Greece and the rest of the Euro members would negotiate on Greece debts deals.I would say given on current situation, chances are 60% Greece will stay with EURO, 40% to leave EURO

4) When do you think US FED will raise the interest rates?
Late 2015 or 2016

I read that Yellen is patiently waiting for the right time to raise interest rates. Why hasn't she done so? 2 reasons: US labour data (employment/payroll) and World economies performance

5) Name 3 countries that has likelihood to perform the best in their economy for 2015?
India - Benefit greatly from low energy prices, Modi - visionary leadership and growing middle class population (Projected 8~10% GDP growth)

China - Although its economy has drop in recent years but still the envy of many countries, cracking down on corruptions and consolidating the internal political scene will definitely gives Premier Li a better control in making decision for China future economy outlook. (Projected 7%-8% GDP growth)

Germany - Germany seems to be performing the best among most of the EURO zones in 2014 and with the launch of QE in EURO, that will helps their export. Even Warren Buffet has announces of looking into invest in Germany (Projected 4-6% GDP growth)
 
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archcherub

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According to the experts from my banks, not me... Top investment country conviction are:

US
Japan
India

Euro zone too but more uncertainties due to Greece.
China also to watch because of recent rate cut by 25 bps and linking to HK exchange.

Japan and India because they are big beneficiaries of the low oil prices which are expected to remain in 2015. All the oil producing countries will continue to suffer, like Malaysia. The U.S. on the other hand is still expected to lead in growth as recovery looks sustained.

thanks for sharing. agree with india.. Any Indian ETF to recommend? lol

a bit surprised, coz thought europe would be leading since QE plus Europe hasnt caught up with the growth spurs of USA.. heehee.

USA growth last year was really good.
 

wondrdoggie

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thanks for sharing. agree with india.. Any Indian ETF to recommend? lol

a bit surprised, coz thought europe would be leading since QE plus Europe hasnt caught up with the growth spurs of USA.. heehee.

USA growth last year was really good.

I am not the expert for ETFs. I buy mutual bonds and go after alpha type. Haha!

Europe uncertainties are due to Greece who now has a govt that is anti austerity, so hard for the rest of EU (mainly Germany) to propping them up if they can't agree to the terms. If Greece makes an orderly exit, fine. The worry is a disorderly exit which will be chaotic for the whole zone.

Ya, I was also surprised at the continued bullishness of the banks for the U.S. I also thought quite toppish already after a great year in 2013 and the final spurt at the end of 2014. But they are super bullish about us equities still. Still got runway apparently.
 

archcherub

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Ya, I was also surprised at the continued bullishness of the banks for the U.S. I also thought quite toppish already after a great year in 2013 and the final spurt at the end of 2014. But they are super bullish about us equities still. Still got runway apparently.

yeah... its really puzzling to me but i guess QE works its magic.

unconventional times call for unconventional practises with unconventional results... :s12:
 

FP_IFA

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1. 3.25%. Thereafter increasing difficult hold above 3% near 2020.
2. No idea. Don't really like to speculate on a political tool.
3. 50 50. Judging from the way they manage to get another 4mths deadline, I think they might stay.
4. After June 2015. Will not be surprise if it is delay till 2016.
5. India, China and Europe (if you dare). I am talking about investment not GDP here.
 

Timperial

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1) Expect things to be on a surprising brighter side this year around 2~2.25. Going forward we are looking at 2~3%

2) OPEC will likely try to maintain price below $70

3) Same as the last few years, dun't see that they want Greece to leave.

4)End of the year to mid next year. Yellen seems is as patience as Bernanke and dun see world economy sorting out anytime soon.

5)By ranking India, Japan, Europe. ETFs and UTs is sufficient.
 

FreedomAngelz

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The Rise of US dollar discussions

With US dollar index continuing climb, what are some of the impact that it will cause around the world? Let's discuss and list them
Example:
-A boost to US Import
-A decline in US Export
-Higher Profitability to company that export and sell goods to US. :s13:
-Countries looking to buy US treasury

etc etc....
 

FreedomAngelz

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wat r ur views towards the upcoming fed meeting??? will they raise int. rate unexpectedly?

Market is still weak. If Fed decide to go ahead and raise rates, it will hurt the market further.

I believe US will launch another QE sooner or later.

BIG news for Singapore about SM Lee Kuan Yew condition. Might make a small impact to local stock markets.
 
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