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Went for my SMU economics interview today

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Old 10-04-2012, 03:53 PM   #31
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No assumptions

If u go 2nd u have 50 50 chance
As opposed to 1/3 2/3 chance Ifu go first
no.....

if u go second, chance then the first person win 1/3 (i.e. u confrim lose)
chance then he lose (so you can your chance) = 2/3

if he lose (2/3 chance), then your chance of winning is 1/2
so overall 2/3*1/2=1/3, your chance is still 1/3
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:53 PM   #32
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You are right.

This is a variation of the monty python puzzle. It doesn't matter which one you choose, it is still 33.3% chance of getting the right ball.
It's true that you still get 1/3 chance of winning, be it you going first or second. However, that means it's not a variation of the Monty Hall problem, because that gives an asymmetric solution.
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:53 PM   #33
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i think TS interview is a largely scaled down version compared to Monty Halls 1 lol.
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:53 PM   #34
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lol monty python LOLLLLLLLLLLL

anyway this is easier than monty hall
this is fugging first question in intro to probability in sec 1 lor
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:54 PM   #35
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No assumptions

If u go 2nd u have 50 50 chance
As opposed to 1/3 2/3 chance Ifu go first
dun self pawn leh

1/3(0) + 2/3(1/2) = 1/3
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:57 PM   #36
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doesnt matter who go first

as long each of you take 1 ball each u all have equal chances of winning
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:01 PM   #37
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dun self pawn leh

1/3(0) + 2/3(1/2) = 1/3
Conditional probabIlty
-->gets black 2/3 ----->gets white 1/2
---->gets white 1/3

P(white/provided guy has chosen black)= p(white n guy chosen black)/p(white)

=(1/3*1/2)/(1/2)

Correct me if I'm wrong
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:01 PM   #38
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probability if you go first

1/3 W
2/3 B


probability if you go second

1st person choose black 2/3 * you choose white 1/2 = 1/3




imo correct ans :

i go first.

at least my destiny is in my hands.
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:01 PM   #39
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really surprising that pple can give ridic answers when this is obvsly a math problem.....

they too nervous or wat?
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:04 PM   #40
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really surprising that pple can give ridic answers when this is obvsly a math problem.....

they too nervous or wat?
Not nervous. It is because they have no substance.
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:05 PM   #41
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been such a long time since i last drew this in sec sch lol
xiaozonx and testing1234 like this.
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:07 PM   #42
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lol

choosing to go 2nd increases your chances of sucess to 50/50

but that is if you can afford the 1/3 chance that the 1st person who goes gets it.

so boils down to. how lucky are you?
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:09 PM   #43
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thats why i say its a luck competition, you can go on and explain all the chances, and probability to the interviewer

but lastly you can sum up the interview question by saying, you are not taking the competition because it is afterall a luck competition
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:10 PM   #44
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then might as well go last 100% probability
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:14 PM   #45
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i tink it all comes down to how u look at it... 1 camp of ppl may argue it is really just a matter of luck. another camp of ppl would prefer to rely on statistical results to back their decisions.
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