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Old 12-03-2012, 09:59 PM   #136
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I am vested in SPH but I would love to see the bad points that you have written. When buying any counter, there are two things that we should be asking.

1. Why am I buying?
2. Why are others selling?

Thanks.
It's hard to overcome this cognitive bias indeed. Whenever you are buying, somebody else has to sell to you, and vice versa. Both sides think they are doing the right thing, but one of them has to be wrong...
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Old 12-03-2012, 10:07 PM   #137
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It's hard to overcome this cognitive bias indeed. Whenever you are buying, somebody else has to sell to you, and vice versa. Both sides think they are doing the right thing, but one of them has to be wrong...
why cant both sides be right?

see the reasons i gave above. the different permutations are possible. wrong/wrong, wrong/right, right/wrong, right/right.

Last edited by MikeDirnt78; 12-03-2012 at 10:10 PM..
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Old 12-03-2012, 10:27 PM   #138
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why cant both sides be right?

see the reasons i gave above. the different permutations are possible. wrong/wrong, wrong/right, right/wrong, right/right.
People buy a stock because they think it will go up. They sell a stock because they think it will go down. The outcome will be one of the two, so you have a winner and a loser. Everything else is details. What is "potential"?

Even someone who has a regular savings plan that automatically invests in stocks - i.e. he is not picking stocks or timing the market - has to think that equities in the long run will give better returns than alternative assets. In your terms, if someone feels he has "too much cash", it means that he thinks his money is better off invested in a riskier asset because it will give him better returns. Yes, you can buy stocks because you have "too much cash".

One exception that occurs to me though is the retiree who is liquidating his stocks to enjoy his retirement. He will do that even if he leaves some gains on the table. Nothing wrong with that.
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Old 12-03-2012, 11:46 PM   #139
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People buy a stock because they think it will go up. They sell a stock because they think it will go down. The outcome will be one of the two, so you have a winner and a loser. Everything else is details. What is "potential"?

Yes, you can buy stocks because you have "too much cash".
oh i wasnt clear in the beginning. my definition of potential means expecting share price to increase. or my potential means expecting a positive return on investment.

even if i have excess cash, i will consider buying the stock if i think it is going to offer me a a positive return. rationally nobody is buying a stock just because he got excess cash and expecting to lose money. thats why i said, there is only ONE reason to buy. the potential reason. i will buy provided that the investment is going to offer me a positive return.

when it comes to selling. the stock may have the potential to go up. a buyer buys. a seller can sell to him. seller thinks the stock has risen a lot from his buying price such that his future expected return diminishes. the seller thinks he can use the proceeds to buy another stock which has a higher potential return. both are making the right decisions. this is the right/right scenario that im saying.

then there are the right/wrong, wrong/right, wrong/wrong permutations as well. the first two are quite straight forward but the last one is a bit tricky.
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Old 13-03-2012, 09:36 AM   #140
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It's hard to overcome this cognitive bias indeed. Whenever you are buying, somebody else has to sell to you, and vice versa. Both sides think they are doing the right thing, but one of them has to be wrong...
Just like to relate one experience that I have. I got this colleague who is overconfident in its selection of stocks as he does not want to listen to the bad things about the counters that he hold. I have advised him against buying S-Chips but he still carry on. In the end, the S-chips that he bought gets suspended. That is one consequence of not having a balanced view and making an informed choice.

He told me that he has diversified with over 30++ counters and the S-chips that gets delisted do not matter much. Then I ask him what is his portfolio return to date. Less than 5%. Since it is his money, I cannot really bother but I suggest to him to look for a financial consultant as his return is really paltry from his overly diversified portfolio.
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Old 13-03-2012, 08:59 PM   #141
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when it comes to selling. the stock may have the potential to go up. a buyer buys. a seller can sell to him. seller thinks the stock has risen a lot from his buying price such that his future expected return diminishes. the seller thinks he can use the proceeds to buy another stock which has a higher potential return. both are making the right decisions. this is the right/right scenario that im saying.
Fair enough. Investor A buys from Investor B because he thinks the stock will go up, Investor B sells to A because he thinks another stock will go up more. But who sells that other stock to B? So on, so forth, until I think we end up with the retiree and other people who do not care about future returns
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Old 13-03-2012, 10:30 PM   #142
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Fair enough. Investor A buys from Investor B because he thinks the stock will go up, Investor B sells to A because he thinks another stock will go up more. But who sells that other stock to B? So on, so forth, until I think we end up with the retiree and other people who do not care about future returns
the stock has a diverse set of investors with different expected returns and appetite. one will sell to another and the cycle continues. at the end of the day, stock market is not a zero sum game in the long term because of value creation. all investors can make profits together.
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Old 13-03-2012, 10:49 PM   #143
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Sold 3 lots at 3.75 and another 3 lots at 3.81.
Still confident of it hitting 3.90.

Still vested with 5 lots.
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Old 14-03-2012, 12:07 AM   #144
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Sold 3 lots at 3.75 and another 3 lots at 3.81.
Still confident of it hitting 3.90.

Still vested with 5 lots.
when u do this, arent u paying commission for each trade?
why not sell all at 1 shot?
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Old 14-03-2012, 08:00 AM   #145
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when u do this, arent u paying commission for each trade?
why not sell all at 1 shot?
after certain amount another com will kick in. Unless scb. Correct me if i wrong
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Old 14-03-2012, 09:45 AM   #146
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Commission normally at $~28 or ~0.28%. whichever is higher.

3 lot ~ 11430

11430 x 0.28% = more then $28

That's why selling now to lock down some profits seems a wise thing to do
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Old 14-03-2012, 11:15 AM   #147
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hope it chiong to $4 soon... chiong ah!!!
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Old 14-03-2012, 11:27 AM   #148
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hope it chiong to $4 soon... chiong ah!!!
possible for sph to go bk to $4 n abv at current state?
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Old 14-03-2012, 11:39 AM   #149
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bb, faster clear the 3.85 roadblock!!!!!!!
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Old 14-03-2012, 01:08 PM   #150
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Commission normally at $~28 or ~0.28%. whichever is higher.

3 lot ~ 11430

11430 x 0.28% = more then $28

That's why selling now to lock down some profits seems a wise thing to do
perhaps u invest it for the quick buck but it being a pillow stock is something ideal if u believe that its got a cast iron business case.

that would free up time to consistently vexed over what to do with it.

some stocks like reits, and yield stocks are suppose to provide us that so that we can focus on our work and other form of business
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