Shouldn't this be dependent on volatility? In times like this when vix is artificially subdued due to massive stimulus, it is no brainer that just being long on the index wins.
If markets were not so distorted, then you could go long/short and make money. Now it is just follow the fed. Don't fight the fed, mantra. It is better to just either stay long or stay out and wait for the Armageddon.
We have so many hedge funds who did well in the past are now closing down, because it just doesn't work in this type of markets.
It really depends on how you adapt your trading strategies to the prevailing market conditions. I had a good run with counter trend trading strategies over the last few months while my swing trading did not work as well as compared to the prior years. Nowadays, I do not classify strategies or adapt them with the type of market conditions. I went back to basic price action and volume analysis and when there is a trade, I would take it in the direction of the trend or countertrend if there are no discernible trends. Basically, identifying support and resistance point and deciding if they provide me a good level to base my stops. I also screen entries based on volume spread analysis - what was the background, and what demand and supply bars are telling me of the state of the market and if there is a trading opportunity with a risk reward skewed in my favour. Something which did not suit my personality prior - breakout trades - am now taking them as I found VSA techniques helped me decide if they may be genuine or otherwise. I do not pay much attention to MACD or general indicators as much but when they point to a buy and the market sold down instead, I would be interested as it means many may be trapped.
What you are saying is more a macro approach but there are always exceptions. VIX may be low but there are individual stocks that have high volatility. eg - the volatility spiked when Kellog and Coke were sold down after earnings, I took a countertrend trade at the bottom with good result. Quick 2 or 3 days trade when volatility was high and thereafter, it quietened down.
Fed action may dictate short to med term directions but their track record is at best 50-50... that accounted for their about turn on rates just not too long ago. So react to Fed action but by no means, use it as leading indicator. They react to the economy and if you read the data releases, you can also formulate your own opinion and frame your perspective.... there appears to be an expectation that things are slowing down but if you look at the recent data, the run has been lest bad than feared or there are some signs of pickup in activities.... so that provides some imput to short term trading decisions... coupled with a market which has not shown any serious signs of supply as yet, the path of least resistance appears to be higher for the short term.