The bears den

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
11,451
Reaction score
2,063
I dont want to spoil the US stocks discussions thread with my bearish views. So I will create this thread, for posting any market views, which could be total rubbish, financial porn, zero hedge stuff.
 

edwardZ

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 28, 2016
Messages
1,228
Reaction score
162
I dont want to spoil the US stocks discussions thread with my bearish views. So I will create this thread, for posting any market views, which could be total rubbish, financial porn, zero hedge stuff.

i hold bearish views as well...just based on the technical charts alone for example S&P, it has lost major support levels from the previous highs from oct 18 last year and all the price is doing now is just a retracement so far, and not considered uptrend yet

let's see what happens for the next few weeks :s13:
 

DukeCS33

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2018
Messages
2,330
Reaction score
7
I dont want to spoil the US stocks discussions thread with my bearish views. So I will create this thread, for posting any market views, which could be total rubbish, financial porn, zero hedge stuff.

There is no need to start a separate thread for US stocks discussions. The market is made up of different views. There is no value in a thread with just a lopsided view.
 

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
11,451
Reaction score
2,063
There is no need to start a separate thread for US stocks discussions. The market is made up of different views. There is no value in a thread with just a lopsided view.

I am extremely bearish, that will piss off a lot of people and then they will get personal. Besides that thread is for US stocks, not necessarily macro view.
 

DukeCS33

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2018
Messages
2,330
Reaction score
7
I am extremely bearish, that will piss off a lot of people and then they will get personal. Besides that thread is for US stocks, not necessarily macro view.

That's their problem. Not yours. I have this morning put across a bearish view as well. I dun care if people have an issue with that. At the end of the day, my trading pnl is all that matters. I am doing some analysis for fun and its my fun - not theirs so would not be bothered.
 

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
11,451
Reaction score
2,063
For all the attention on US and China, the market to get hit the most is South Korea. Not too far from their December lows. I think this is the best leading indicator of what is to come for global markets.

pvovmJK.jpg
 

coolhead

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2007
Messages
46,199
Reaction score
9,228
I sold off majority of my stocks into cash last Thursday.... Only major position is OCBC which I am almost holding the bag... A pity the XD took place too late.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT
 

theMKR

Great Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 3, 2016
Messages
65,824
Reaction score
11,181
Actually I can relate the formation of this thread.

I used to frequent the casinos a lot, and sometimes I always play in my own rules rather than the "norm"

then everyone will start cursing me :s22:

luckily being a 100kg bbfa does offer some physical protect when wagering it out offline helps too :s22:
 

theMKR

Great Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 3, 2016
Messages
65,824
Reaction score
11,181
I am extremely bearish, that will piss off a lot of people and then they will get personal. Besides that thread is for US stocks, not necessarily macro view.

Are you always extremely bearish, or only during this period?

I feel its hard to be bearish, as in the thread said, the norm is everything appreciating... from ETF, time deposits, structures, etc... a huge majority are pumping additional cash ( which they do not need and dun care about ) into the markets.
And these people will not panic sell because they sort of "forgot about it".....

And to be honest... I kidda got stuck in a short position because......

1.jpg


I posted this last week in edmw. I buy high sell low lolx :s13:

and besides i am puny fry player, so i wanted to add a bit more excitement to my trading experience since the amount is small by being more dramatic lolx
 
Last edited:

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
11,451
Reaction score
2,063
theMKR, yes people have been conditioned that equities will always go up in the long term. This is not true. Markets go up and go down as well. There is no guarantee that markets won't be down for an extended period of time. But bulls don't believe this.

Making money in the markets by just buy and hold, cannot be so easy, that is too good to be true. There is reward and there is risk. Bulls love the reward but forget the risk.

After 10 years of relentless bull run, it is time to pay the bills by th bulls.

If you are trying to short the market, you need lots of ammunition, the bulls could have their way for a long time, but eventually markets will crash when they least expect it.

I am out of the markets and waiting for the crash.
 

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
11,451
Reaction score
2,063
The other thing you cannot ignore is how the Trump admin has been relentlessly pumping up the markets that deal is imminent. Now what about their accountability, when the trade war has worsened?

There was absolutely no need to come out and comment about the deal until it was done. But they kept on giving a positive twist to rig the markets up.

Do you want to participate on the long side of such rigged markets? Are you absolutely sure Trump admin can prevent a crash in the markets forever?
 

theMKR

Great Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 3, 2016
Messages
65,824
Reaction score
11,181
theMKR, yes people have been conditioned that equities will always go up in the long term. This is not true. Markets go up and go down as well. There is no guarantee that markets won't be down for an extended period of time. But bulls don't believe this.

Making money in the markets by just buy and hold, cannot be so easy, that is too good to be true. There is reward and there is risk. Bulls love the reward but forget the risk.

After 10 years of relentless bull run, it is time to pay the bills by th bulls.

If you are trying to short the market, you need lots of ammunition, the bulls could have their way for a long time, but eventually markets will crash when they least expect it.

I am out of the markets and waiting for the crash.

actually, i am thinking about that bull run for the longest time. which is why before i had a trading account i started a lot of threads asking how to make money if i think a stock is going down very slowly.....

The answer given is by sell puts options.

then i create an IBKR acct and play for fun. But i cant trade anything besides buying and sell stocks.

Either my deposit not enough or I setup the acct wrongly :s22:

i put in exactly 25k usd which is 34071sgd to avoid the day trading limit and cash out to buy pokemon cards when i can :s22:

Maybe its time to explore more on this....... (bearish bets)
 

limster

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Oct 31, 2000
Messages
11,423
Reaction score
2,432
By not losing money.

on a mark-to-market basis, I lost lots of money in 2018, but I am totally ok with that.

companies are still profitable, earnings are good, and they are paying dividends out of those profits. :s13:

of course it is good to continue building up warchest, maybe look towards maxxing out the $200k SSB allocation as part of warchest, but selling all my shares when companies are still profitable and paying dividends... i'm not so sure... :s25:
 

klarklar

Supremacy Member
Joined
Jan 8, 2012
Messages
8,802
Reaction score
271
I dont want to spoil the US stocks discussions thread with my bearish views. So I will create this thread, for posting any market views, which could be total rubbish, financial porn, zero hedge stuff.

Not to mention...
revhappy, you aren't Singaporean.

FCS is Anti-Foreigner Stirring Sai in Singapore Cyberspaces

Hi ForexChartingSaiPert,

Stop your anti-foreigner posts.
You are the one damaging other people's quality threads with your posts.

Hi revhappy,

Please ignore those anti-foreigner posts. I'm Singaporean. Most Singaporeans I know aren't like that although it's true many of us are resentful of foreigners taking jobs away, particularly if the foreigner is a fake talent and is lazy at work. As for myself, I welcome true foreign talents and if I lose my job to true foreign talent, I blame myself for not being competitive enough.

Don't worry about posting bearish views that are opposed to mainstream opinions. As long as they are backed by sound reasoning and accurate facts, opposing views are even more valuable than agreeable posts.
 

DukeCS33

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2018
Messages
2,330
Reaction score
7
actually, i am thinking about that bull run for the longest time. which is why before i had a trading account i started a lot of threads asking how to make money if i think a stock is going down very slowly.....

The answer given is by sell puts options.

then i create an IBKR acct and play for fun. But i cant trade anything besides buying and sell stocks.

Either my deposit not enough or I setup the acct wrongly :s22:

i put in exactly 25k usd which is 34071sgd to avoid the day trading limit and cash out to buy pokemon cards when i can :s22:

Maybe its time to explore more on this....... (bearish bets)

Selling puts is not the right way to express this view at all. Whoever told you this has either been misled by those so called gurus or has limited knowledge of how instruments work. The correct way to express this view if one must sell an option is to sell call. Think about it - selling call is a way to express a directional view to say that you do not expect market to trade higher. Conversely, selling puts is a way to express the view that one does not expect the market to fall. Stay away from options if you do not understand the instrument. Many newbies only look at options from 1 dimension without realizing that a simple option transacted expresses one's views across several variables known as option Geeks.
 
Important Forum Advisory Note
This forum is moderated by volunteer moderators who will react only to members' feedback on posts. Moderators are not employees or representatives of HWZ. Forum members and moderators are responsible for their own posts.

Please refer to our Community Guidelines and Standards, Terms of Service and Member T&Cs for more information.
Top