The bears den

[FrostWurm]

Steepen is vague as it could mean becoming a more positive or negative gradient.

Err I don't think it is vague if you understand the concept of steepening/flattening...

 

[netzach]

Anyone feels that the markets seem to be quite toppish..? Greed fear index also at extreme greed over high 80s... feel like time to cut down longs and take profits already

לֵב HardwareZone Forums app

 

[chrisloh65]

With Trump at helm, he likely will spin more "news" to make the stock market go higher!
But watch out, the crash is not far too!

Anyone feels that the markets seem to be quite toppish..? Greed fear index also at extreme greed over high 80s... feel like time to cut down longs and take profits already

לֵב HardwareZone Forums app

 

[peipei1]

Should add iwda or wait a bit... market have stalled last 2 days because of same unclear trade war news.

Bloomberg once again tried to pump the market with misleading breaking news about rolling back tariffs...

 

[weng0202]

Should add iwda or wait a bit... market have stalled last 2 days because of same unclear trade war news.

Bloomberg once again tried to pump the market with misleading breaking news about rolling back tariffs...

It's pretty high now. You sure you wanna add?

 

[SBC]

It's pretty high now. You sure you wanna add?

Missing the $57.xx period.

 

[netzach]

With Trump at helm, he likely will spin more "news" to make the stock market go higher!
But watch out, the crash is not far too!

Then after that Donald Duck gonna add shorts already haha

לֵב HardwareZone Forums app

 

[Kapish]

Then after that Donald Duck gonna add shorts already haha

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if you note when trump said he did not agree to any tariffs rollback the indexes still made new highs. seems like investors are learning to tune out trump's comments

 

[revhappy]

Anyone feels that the markets seem to be quite toppish..? Greed fear index also at extreme greed over high 80s... feel like time to cut down longs and take profits already

There was a time when I would fear selling the spy 260 put, but now the way put premiums are being crushed, even 300 spy put selling seems safe. Imagine, people are not expecting spy 300 to be hit anytime soon, such is the level of complacency.

 

[DukeCS33]

There was a time when I would fear selling the spy 260 put, but now the way put premiums are being crushed, even 300 spy put selling seems safe. Imagine, people are not expecting spy 300 to be hit anytime soon, such is the level of complacency.

This makes it cheaper to buy puts. Price is cheap, market is all focused to the upside and any shake up will see puts valuation surge. A cheaper bet would be to buy low delta, longer duration puts.

 

[MikeDirnt78]

This makes it cheaper to buy puts. Price is cheap, market is all focused to the upside and any shake up will see puts valuation surge. A cheaper bet would be to buy low delta, longer duration puts.

Yes this is absolutely a sensible thing to do.

 

[chrisloh65]

Not "investors" but traders!

if you note when trump said he did not agree to any tariffs rollback the indexes still made new highs. seems like investors are learning to tune out trump's comments

 

[coolhead]

It is just something to watch out for. If 10y treasury yields rise to 2.25-2.5%, then it is no longer zero interest rates for equities to keep rising.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blain-if-yields-rise-any-higher-melt-will-quickly-reverse

Err I don't think it is vague if you understand the concept of steepening/flattening...

The yield curve has steepen so it's reversing from the "prediction of a recession".

US 10 year yields are rising and so are global yields. That is something to watch out for.

Some explanations about the bond prices falling...

http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/why-are-bonds-going-for-broke/

Disclaimer: I do not support the above views and are sharing solely for the purpose of generating insights/discussions.

 

[DukeCS33]

Some explanations about the bond prices falling...

http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/why-are-bonds-going-for-broke/

Disclaimer: I do not support the above views and are sharing solely for the purpose of generating insights/discussions.

Central bankers have lost the plot. The rapid expansion of the balance sheet, fall in interest rates just mean one thing - rapid printing of money. This is having less and less impact on spurring the physical economy while asset prices get artificially pumped up by the surge in liquidity. All this can come to a head when we get hyperinflation, or a recession due to the failure of monetary policy to kick start economic growth or both - stagflation. The risk gets greater as we get more banks doing negative rates or massive quant easing by way of buying up bonds.... eventually what would be the worth of the fiat currency??? We are still some distance from this scenario but we can never guess the exact timing - all crisis happens when we least expect it.

 

[churnmaster]

Anyone feels that the markets seem to be quite toppish..? Greed fear index also at extreme greed over high 80s... feel like time to cut down longs and take profits already

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Yup, I think its good time to book some profits with the indicators in the overbought level.

The market internals (A/D ratio) too showing slowdown in momentum.

 

[netzach]

Yup, I think its good time to book some profits with the indicators in the overbought level.

The market internals (A/D ratio) too showing slowdown in momentum.

Ya man... at least for me... cause I see it’s at the right end of the extreme greed level and overbought already, so take some $ for Christmas first lol

לֵב HardwareZone Forums app

 

[churnmaster]

There was a time when I would fear selling the spy 260 put, but now the way put premiums are being crushed, even 300 spy put selling seems safe. Imagine, people are not expecting spy 300 to be hit anytime soon, such is the level of complacency.

Look at the Put / Call ratio for SPY and the option skew.

 

[churnmaster]

Some explanations about the bond prices falling...

http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/why-are-bonds-going-for-broke/

Disclaimer: I do not support the above views and are sharing solely for the purpose of generating insights/discussions.

When the 10Y UST yield dropped towards 1.5% level in early Aug, the move appeared overdone, with the talk about negative interest rates in the US in near future.

Now, with the fed signalling a pause after 3 rate cuts, we are seeing some sanity in the UST market, which is a good thing.

 

[candy crush]

when will us stock market change back to 930pm again...?

Sent from 我好想射.... using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

Yes this is absolutely a sensible thing to do.

The sensible thing to do is not to trade options. Retail investors do not have the edge in option trading as they are subject to wider spreads.