2022 Earnings wise definitely will beat 2021. Large container shipping firms kinda affirmed the trend with reporting profits / revenue that is beating in 1st 6 mths of 2022.
However, beyond 2022, currently the bear factors are
-Poor demand from incoming recession fears driving container pricing downwards
-Covid normalize and reducing port congestion resulting in lower freight rates
-Thoughts on China probably might not stick to covid 0 after elections?
Bull Factors are
- Inflation indirectly driving freight rates up. Hard to hire inland logistics to deliver containers etc.
- Slow drop in freight rate but still largely profitable
- Shanghai lockdown and then now china back to this
- Infection increase in various places like US, China etc as reinfection strikes.
As a whole the industry trades at 1-3 PE depending on what companies you pick.
Samudera could be a 1 PE or sub 1 PE company.
Have to see what is the general industry guidance given by the larger shipping coys
For Samudera Indonesia, its own revenue target for 2022 is 1 billion revenue. With revenue at 250 million in 1Q 2022 and as of May 2022 its 440 million.
1 PE looks very likely.