2020 market expectations and positioning

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DukeCS33

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True, but I believe CPF, a part of it, pays exceptionally high interest rate of 4%, so people will be content and won't take risk with equities. If the authorities want STI to shoot up, then they could promote STI to be major chunk of CPF just like 401k.

Most use cpf to buy their residences. Cpf monies may also be used for investments and if one is already vested in the equity markets, the that cpf portion is probably held as cash proportion to suit diversification purposes. Freeing cpf monies for equity investment may boost the markets but such investment is not without risks. Not everyone knows how to pick stocks and most may end up burnt in penny counters. So I do not think it is prudent to allow free investments into any asset class if the purpose for it is as a nest egg for retirement.
 

revhappy

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Has there been a 10% dip yet?

I think 5% in HK. Singapore about 3% down I think.

US is still strong. There could be some sell off in US soon and then Asian markets should go even lower I guess. So maybe not the right time to buy yet?
 
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gamerx

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Anybody buying this dip in Asia/HK?

Doing it slowly. I'm betting that it's only the tip of the iceberg for the coronavirus issue.

With the way the Chinese administrations downplay issues, and given the large movement of people around CNY. The worst is yet to come.
 

NewInvestor

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STI can skyrocket, if the authorities start behaving like FED and Trump. If CPF interest is reduced from 4% to 2% and Temasek, GIC and MAS start doing large scale asset purchases of Singapore equities, it will rocket.

But it is good that they are not doing it. Valuations are low and it allows people to accumulate cheap, while property markets are kept out of speculation.


I have bought a little but suspect that worse news is just around the corner. The problem is that we do not know whether this virus will mutate to an even more deadly version. If it does, things could go down pretty fast.

The lesson we have learnt from the 2003 SARS episode is that even though markets (and property prices) may go down badly, we will eventually get through this crisis and the markets will recover. So, this may be a buying opportunity.
 

revhappy

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I have bought a little but suspect that worse news is just around the corner. The problem is that we do not know whether this virus will mutate to an even more deadly version. If it does, things could go down pretty fast.

The lesson we have learnt from the 2003 SARS episode is that even though markets (and property prices) may go down badly, we will eventually get through this crisis and the markets will recover. So, this may be a buying opportunity.

I guess for Hong Kong it is like perfect storm, they have protests, trade related slowdown, moodys downgrade and now this virus. Very sad and unfortunate though, so many negative events in the last 2 years for them. Just when HSI climbed from 26k to 29k this virus happened. Now all those people who bought at 26k will become weak hands and start selling.
 

NewInvestor

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I guess for Hong Kong it is like perfect storm, they have protests, trade related slowdown, moodys downgrade and now this virus. Very sad and unfortunate though, so many negative events in the last 2 years for them. Just when HSI climbed from 26k to 29k this virus happened. Now all those people who bought at 26k will become weak hands and start selling.


Pls note that many many punters in HK n Spore remember the SARS events n as such, are also waiting to buy. So I m not sure by how much the stock market will sink before buyers pile in. I just read that the first Wuhan virus case in Spore has been confirmed. My guess is that this epidemic will get worse before it gets better.
 

tanjiakpeng

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am tactically offloading 90% of my holdings. keeping the etfs and dumping the high beta names

getting a little gold ETF to ride through this virus

still considering getting an inverse china etf to profit from this selloff
 

DukeCS33

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Pls note that many many punters in HK n Spore remember the SARS events n as such, are also waiting to buy. So I m not sure by how much the stock market will sink before buyers pile in. I just read that the first Wuhan virus case in Spore has been confirmed. My guess is that this epidemic will get worse before it gets better.

https://mothership.sg/2020/01/china-lock-down-2-cities-wuhan/

This virus is spreading and there is no effective way to contain it... Singapore has its first confirmed case and it is a matter of time before other countries get affected. Peak Chinese travel season would highlight this risk. Those who are looking to buy dips thinking that it would pass would be taking on a big risk. The safer way to play this is when mkts stabilises and rebound after the danger has passed.
 

blue_denim24

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STI can skyrocket, if the authorities start behaving like FED and Trump. If CPF interest is reduced from 4% to 2% and Temasek, GIC and MAS start doing large scale asset purchases of Singapore equities, it will rocket.

But it is good that they are not doing it. Valuations are low and it allows people to accumulate cheap, while property markets are kept out of speculation.



STI made its peak in Oct 2007 and it still hasn't reached there after 13 years. Although I do a regular monthly investments in it and I am aware that there are dividends as well, the poor performance of STI is a concern.

Another aspect to look for is SGD which is a strong currency to hold. It has done well against almost all popular currencies of the world in last 15 years.

So there are 2 sides to the argument here, hold sti long term because you want to hold on to Singapore dollars long term but then need to accept the fact that Singapore markets performance would always be mediocre compared to USA markets.

I keep hearing REITs can get better returns than STI but never really invested in those. Anybody here as any recommendation on REITs ? Does it make sense to hold some REITs as well in addition to STI
 

NewInvestor

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https://mothership.sg/2020/01/china-lock-down-2-cities-wuhan/

This virus is spreading and there is no effective way to contain it... Singapore has its first confirmed case and it is a matter of time before other countries get affected. Peak Chinese travel season would highlight this risk. Those who are looking to buy dips thinking that it would pass would be taking on a big risk. The safer way to play this is when mkts stabilises and rebound after the danger has passed.


I have just had meetings with 2 clients who have substantial businesses in China (and elsewhere). They told me what is happening in China to their businesses (and associated businesses) so far as well as their views on what they think may happen from hereon.

Whilst I obviously cannot give details of what was said to me, I can only say that what you have said above definitely has merit and makes sense. After considering risk against reward, I have sold off stocks which will be directly affected by this virus contagion (should the contagion get worse).
 

DukeCS33

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I have just had meetings with 2 clients who have substantial businesses in China (and elsewhere). They told me what is happening in China to their businesses (and associated businesses) so far as well as their views on what they think may happen from hereon.

Whilst I obviously cannot give details of what was said to me, I can only say that what you have said above definitely has merit and makes sense. After considering risk against reward, I have sold off stocks which will be directly affected by this virus contagion (should the contagion get worse).

If you have witnessed what happened during the SARS period, then it makes sense to be prudent. China is the epicentre and Asia is closest to it. And up to now, the Chinese has not been transparent... there is a disconnect between the number affected vs those that have been infected outside China as flagged by the media.

For US equities, they may be insulated somewhat.... at least until it becomes a global health concern.
 
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