2020 market expectations and positioning

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limster

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* is your time horizon at least 3 years?
* do you believe that the stock market will be at a higher level in 3 yrs compared to now?

my answer to both is yes, so I don't mind buying some shares now, while keeping a warchest just in case. :D

If your answer to both is no, then cash in milo tin is the safest.
 

revhappy

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* is your time horizon at least 3 years?
* do you believe that the stock market will be at a higher level in 3 yrs compared to now?

my answer to both is yes, so I don't mind buying some shares now, while keeping a warchest just in case. :D

If your answer to both is no, then cash in milo tin is the safest.

How big is your warchest now?
 

limster

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How big is your warchest now?

if i count my CPF-OA as part of warchest because I can use it to buy STI ETF and unit trusts, I think the warchest is a decent size.

Thats also why I also don't mind refunding my housing loan to CPF (only just starting doing this after being inspired by all those who keep large CPF-OA as part of their bond holdings), even if its inside CPF, I can still use it to buy ETF/ unit trusts during a crash :s13:
 

applecrisp

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* is your time horizon at least 3 years?
* do you believe that the stock market will be at a higher level in 3 yrs compared to now?

my answer to both is yes, so I don't mind buying some shares now, while keeping a warchest just in case. :D

If your answer to both is no, then cash in milo tin is the safest.

Pls share why u think it will be higher
 

limster

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when valuations are undemanding, I would expect prices to generally go up, in line with earnings, GDP, population growth, inflation etc.

I'm referring to a diversified portfolio and not saying that a particular stock will be higher in 3 years time.
 

MikeDirnt78

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MSFT vestors, 请问got any news ar?
How come the stock price retreating the past 2 days after touching 一发发?
Is it just a TA thing or got underlying news that mayb we dun know yet? :look?:

MSFT already up quite a lot in the last 3 months.

The fall is just a small dip.
 

malthead

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Having a warchest is good.

But if your target level is too low, your warchest will never get utilised.

also not to forget. your warchest will only get larger from savings from income. once it hits a certain level, there is more downside than upside to keep waiting...
 

ashethen

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MSFT vestors, 请问got any news ar?
How come the stock price retreating the past 2 days after touching 一发发?
Is it just a TA thing or got underlying news that mayb we dun know yet? :look?:

"Under a schedule already agreed to the court, Amazon, DoD and Microsoft, judge Patricia E Campbell-Smith is expected to rule on whether to issue the stop-work order by Thursday. If she does not, the Defense Department has said it plans to issue the first “substantive” JEDI task order to Microsoft on Friday."


If all goes accordingly, headlines will read AWS defeated by Azure. Refocusing attention on Microsoft's profitable and growing cloud business. Not to mention, this is a 10 year deal with openings to new government cloud deals.

Why is this a big deal?

From my personal experience in the cloud business, I've worked directly with one of Amazon's subsidiaries on large cloud deals (over 7-figures) in Asia & South America for streaming services that needed low-latency that AWS could not provide due to their datacenter locations. It took our company over 7 months through litigation, red-lines, etc to finalize a contract. One the contract was finished and approved, getting new business can be done in the same day, i.e., once Microsoft is awarded, they can continue growing their government deals as needed, in the same day.

Thus, tomorrow's ruling is a big win (if it happens) for Microsoft.

Update: the author just posted a new article

A few key takeaways:

"...the government argued not only that Amazon lacks the necessarily legal basis to get the temporary stop-work order, issuing one would cause concrete harm to national security."

Favors MSFT

2) "...To win the injunction, among other factors, Amazon needs to show that it’s likely to win the underlying lawsuit and that it its interests would suffer more without a work stoppage than the government’s would if the JEDI buildout was paused."

Favors MSFT

3) “While still lacking several key features of the JEDI Cloud…[DoD] anticipates a financial harm of between $5 and $7 million dollars every month that performance of the JEDI contract is delayed.”

Nail in the coffin. Case dismissed. MSFT, flawless victory.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/f30vez/msft_holdersautists_tomorrows_a_big_day_judge/

wall street bets reddit going crazy on msft :s12::s12:
 

Newbyib

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"Under a schedule already agreed to the court, Amazon, DoD and Microsoft, judge Patricia E Campbell-Smith is expected to rule on whether to issue the stop-work order by Thursday. If she does not, the Defense Department has said it plans to issue the first “substantive” JEDI task order to Microsoft on Friday."

If all goes accordingly, headlines will read AWS defeated by Azure. Refocusing attention on Microsoft's profitable and growing cloud business. Not to mention, this is a 10 year deal with openings to new government cloud deals.

Why is this a big deal?

From my personal experience in the cloud business, I've worked directly with one of Amazon's subsidiaries on large cloud deals (over 7-figures) in Asia & South America for streaming services that needed low-latency that AWS could not provide due to their datacenter locations. It took our company over 7 months through litigation, red-lines, etc to finalize a contract. One the contract was finished and approved, getting new business can be done in the same day, i.e., once Microsoft is awarded, they can continue growing their government deals as needed, in the same day.

Thus, tomorrow's ruling is a big win (if it happens) for Microsoft.

Update: the author just posted a new article

A few key takeaways:

"...the government argued not only that Amazon lacks the necessarily legal basis to get the temporary stop-work order, issuing one would cause concrete harm to national security."

Favors MSFT

2) "...To win the injunction, among other factors, Amazon needs to show that it’s likely to win the underlying lawsuit and that it its interests would suffer more without a work stoppage than the government’s would if the JEDI buildout was paused."

Favors MSFT

3) “While still lacking several key features of the JEDI Cloud…[DoD] anticipates a financial harm of between $5 and $7 million dollars every month that performance of the JEDI contract is delayed.”

Nail in the coffin. Case dismissed. MSFT, flawless victory.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/f30vez/msft_holdersautists_tomorrows_a_big_day_judge/

wall street bets reddit going crazy on msft :s12::s12:
Although I will agree with this, there are always things that will go wrong, I will just wait and react accordingly when things develops.
 

revhappy

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The way the US market is behaving, it appears it was well on its way to rip up to S&P 4000 level, this virus has put some breaks, but there is no downside yet. Some people are trying to predict the top and short. This gives even more energy for the bulls.

If you are not allocated at all to markets you are going to be very disappointed. I think still there is time to get into markets. This virus thing will die off soon and the all that latent energy will push up all indices like crazy, we could have a year like 2017, very soon.
 
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