2020 market expectations and positioning

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BBCWatcher

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DOD wants to use microsoft but amazon want to insist that DOD reconsider and use them... it's a joke really
The court doesn't think it's a joke since it granted Amazon's request for a temporary restraining order.
 

coolhead

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SSE back to yesterday's high after a more accurate wuhan figure was reported. situation back to normal guys.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro
 

d9_lives

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The way the US market is behaving, it appears it was well on its way to rip up to S&P 4000 level, this virus has put some breaks, but there is no downside yet. Some people are trying to predict the top and short. This gives even more energy for the bulls.

If you are not allocated at all to markets you are going to be very disappointed. I think still there is time to get into markets. This virus thing will die off soon and the all that latent energy will push up all indices like crazy, we could have a year like 2017, very soon.

You're scaring me 😮
 

Trader11

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The way the US market is behaving, it appears it was well on its way to rip up to S&P 4000 level, this virus has put some breaks, but there is no downside yet. Some people are trying to predict the top and short. This gives even more energy for the bulls.

If you are not allocated at all to markets you are going to be very disappointed. I think still there is time to get into markets. This virus thing will die off soon and the all that latent energy will push up all indices like crazy, we could have a year like 2017, very soon.

Bear turning bullish... Be careful now
 

decibel.

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Well if you work in bigger companies you would have realized companies are actively cancelling events, which potentially lose millions on the table in overall preparation. Sales outlook are also affected due to the virus. Further correction is expected. Most government already did the math and issue statements about their economy already.

Sent from HUAWEI VOG-L29 using GAGT
 

Okenba

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Well if you work in bigger companies you would have realized companies are actively cancelling events, which potentially lose millions on the table in overall preparation. Sales outlook are also affected due to the virus. Further correction is expected. Most government already did the math and issue statements about their economy already.

Sent from HUAWEI VOG-L29 using GAGT

The west hasn't quite got the memo yet, but UK already taking steps. The rest of Europe, and then US, should not be far behind.
 

Newbyib

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How's it during the 2003 SARS?
Let me share 1 article from my favourite blogger.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/important-details-investors-should-know-about-the-coronavirus/

Let me know your thought.
There are a few things that have changed since.
Central banks have been more aggressive in preventing a market rout with liquidity injection.
The market structure ie composition of the market participants have changed for eg Singapore and China.
So not every time is a repeat of history.
My thoughts.
 

decibel.

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The west hasn't quite got the memo yet, but UK already taking steps. The rest of Europe, and then US, should not be far behind.
Certainly and eventually. Several events around the globe have either been postponed until further notice or cancelled totally. Most that have not been made official will not be releasing statements since the invites are not sent. Asia and EU would be taking the heat first followed by US.

How's it during the 2003 SARS?
Let me share 1 article from my favourite blogger.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/important-details-investors-should-know-about-the-coronavirus/

Let me know your thought.
Nice analysis. Just a few notes: you shouldn't be looking purely at fatality rate. Yes it's low but that doesn't change the fact that with more cases requiring medical attention it will eventually exhaust your medical infrastructure leading to manpower issues and in general, shortage of resources to attend to such cases.

Also, pay attention to those countries with aging population. These are cities where healthcare is almost stressed out everyday even without the virus outbreak. There's a reason why in Singapore, authorities have to look for other buildings to use for quarantine purposes because there just isn't enough isolation wards. Talk to those who work on the ground, they know the actual situation better than what's reported.

But overall it depends on how the government is handling the matter. If your government is decisive and able to instill trust in the people, that's great but if not, Singapore panic buying is one good example of losing trust.

Sent from HUAWEI VOG-L29 using GAGT
 

MikeDirnt78

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I mentioned this a lot of times.

For those who are timing the market or doing active investment, you should invest in some stocks and keep some cash.

Don't try to be at the extreme ends with 100% cash or 100% invested.

If you are doing passive investment, just continue with the monthly purchase.
 

Trader11

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I mentioned this a lot of times.

For those who are timing the market or doing active investment, you should invest in some stocks and keep some cash.

Don't try to be at the extreme ends with 100% cash or 100% invested.

If you are doing passive investment, just continue with the monthly purchase.

For a start, what do you recommend for cash:equities ratio?
 

MikeDirnt78

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Active management

If you are starting, just increase your equity portion in the next few months.

Increase until a level you are comfortable and can still sleep well at nights without being worried too much about your money.

Taking the middle (50:50) approach is good.
 

Thoreldan

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How about passive dca ?
What's the recommended ratio ?

Other than my 6 mths expenses.
I have no cash, all invested.

Could i be investing too much each mth ?
 
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d9_lives

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How about passive dca ?
What's the recommended ratio ?

Other than my 6 mths expenses.
I have no cash, all invested.

Could i be investing too much each mth ?

Check your paper gain. Is it too much? 😁
I am investing most of my cash too.
 

Trader11

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If you are starting, just increase your equity portion in the next few months.

Increase until a level you are comfortable and can still sleep well at nights without being worried too much about your money.

Taking the middle (50:50) approach is good.

I guess depend on capital size? If it is small, then start from 90%. So when you start saving up your salary, the ratio will decrease
 

Okenba

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How about passive dca ?
What's the recommended ratio ?

Other than my 6 mths expenses.
I have no cash, all invested.

Could i be investing too much each mth ?

There are two things I can think of to consider about whether or not you are investing too much.

1) Too much risk? Would you panic sell if a major crash comes and your stocks drop by 50%?

2) Preparing a warchest? If a major crash comes and you don't panic, do you have extra cash to buy more stocks while prices are low?

Both are addressed by an appropriate asset allocation.
Some amount of bonds means that not all your assets will crash by 50% if the stock market crashes.
Some amount of bonds means that you have something to sell at a higher price so that you can buy more stocks at a lower price even if you don't have much cash on hand.

This is why some people say that asset allocation is the most important aspect of investing.
 

Thoreldan

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There are two things I can think of to consider about whether or not you are investing too much.

1) Too much risk? Would you panic sell if a major crash comes and your stocks drop by 50%?

2) Preparing a warchest? If a major crash comes and you don't panic, do you have extra cash to buy more stocks while prices are low?

Both are addressed by an appropriate asset allocation.
Some amount of bonds means that not all your assets will crash by 50% if the stock market crashes.
Some amount of bonds means that you have something to sell at a higher price so that you can buy more stocks at a lower price even if you don't have much cash on hand.

This is why some people say that asset allocation is the most important aspect of investing.

thanks for answering:
1) I wont panic sell, my horizon is another 15-20 yrs. I'm doing ETF, I doubt all the 1000+ odd companies in MSCI world will fold their business.
2) not intending to do warchest. Will continue to dca instead.

but again i treat cpf as bond, so i cant sell my 'bond' :)
 
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