Noble Group *Official* (SGX: CGP)

Keverus

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erm.... seriously you ever shorted before?

its very risky actually....if you short noble big big then

it suddenly gets suspended... maybe due to fraud... you can't cover back your position immediately

say it takes 2 years for CAD/CID investigate and resuming of trade... you would have been paying interest all the way while waiting....if it goes into liquidation.. its even more complex.. need go to court process.. takes a few years

even professional shortist like muddy water... they don't short till the company goes bankrupt

they do a short position first, then initiate a bearish research.. it drops 10% or so next day.. they take profit liao.. very short term one

so thjere is opportunity.
 

Keverus

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hence this stock doesn't seem very stable to vest in

wrong.

a stock can go up, it can go down and it can go sideways.

up of course can vest in.

go sideways, accumulate or divest.

if u certain it goes down, then short.
 

Keverus

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on paper, noble is selling at 10% discount to book

but as a value investor.. i would need more margin of safety..

say 30% or more

PE wise, Noble trading at around 18x 19x.

higher than STI.

discount to book doesnt necessary mean the value will be unlocked. example: Hong Fok
 

Keverus

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but the big question is... will I short it?

the answer is no

why?

1) wait short.. then kanna suspend... I would be lost
2) shorting for singapore market.. too high cost

so the qn is, will Noble tio halt?

and interesting, it is actually cheaper to short Noble compared to other counters. phillips charge 4% while it charges 8% for other counters.

if you had shorted it while it was still $1, now 84 cents, your gain more than enough to cover the financing charge. and considered the leveraged, your gain would had been amplified.

of course, shorting carries much more risk than normal stock buying; you can lose more than your capital. so pls DYODD.
 
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Jajoba123

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has Noble resume trading in the Platts' Market On Close(MOC) window? Tis is the most important trading activity to any oil traders. no activity no money.... although one can trade at physical market but without participation in the MOC you can't be a market maker. am not entirely familiar with the MOC but is important enuff for a trader... any comments are welcomed.
 

Jajoba123

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comments all pretty -ve. barring all the comments i bought 20lots at today's price 0.85. money is money not saying ppl r wrong. kinda complex but u know... let see the 7 May AGM.
be it good or bad just stay calm.
 

Shion

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comments all pretty -ve. barring all the comments i bought 20lots at today's price 0.85. money is money not saying ppl r wrong. kinda complex but u know... let see the 7 May AGM.
be it good or bad just stay calm.

No risk no gain :)

It is our own opinions, not to worry too much :)

But do wary of a possible MuddyWater or Iceberg again, you never know when they will strike again, since they have already done so multiple times.
 

Keverus

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buying was in huge waves, few millionss of sell queue eaten up very quickly...

very unnatural. definitely not retail investors.

something big is going to happen
 

Jajoba123

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can't say for sure is a good buy. always there is flip side of things. tempted to add few more lots tomorrow but... let's wait till end of the week.....
 

Keverus

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interesting...all the action like coming just before market close...

i beleivev prudential eastspring is vested
 

Keverus

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supposed to release results on the 7th, but will release today after market close. those keen, can dial into their webcast at 630pm.
 
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