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[Consolidated] 2015 El Nino and Haze Discussions - Part 3

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Old 14-08-2019, 08:19 PM   #8626
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Drought code map for 14 Aug 2019. Still drying out.

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Old 15-08-2019, 02:33 PM   #8627
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The hotspot located on the Jambi and S Sumatra border is getting quite solid.

Southerly winds would bring it here.

It's located on the deep peatlands there, and also on the DC Drought Code map it is red.
Not going to be easy to extinguish it manually.






Pontianak and Palangkaraya on Kalimantan smoked during Hari Raya Haji




edit 15 Aug 5.15pm. Cutting it a bit close for the smoke plume.
Just a few KM west of Karimun Tg Balai island.

In fact if you are on a skyscraper, you would be able to see the smoke plume to the SW/west of Singapore.

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Old 16-08-2019, 07:43 AM   #8628
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Now any idea its el Nino or?
Just curious if it will repeat another 2015 incident then can make the necessary changes

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Old 16-08-2019, 04:19 PM   #8629
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Current forecast based on GFS:

Dry weather to continue for another 9 days or so, with Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan continuing to be drier than Singapore and reaching its peak this weekend, so the number of hotspots should grow significantly over next week. But the prediction of a sustained southeasterly wind should mean that the smoke would have limited chance of affecting Singapore for now, except at the tail end of this 9-day period.

Weather should become wetter towards the end of August for the entire region, which will help in dousing the fire and giving us some respite. But precedents will tell us that the fires can reignite anytime if dry weather returns.

For next week, you can expect some early morning and late afternoon showers mid-week. That's about it.
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Old 16-08-2019, 04:20 PM   #8630
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Now any idea its el Nino or?
Just curious if it will repeat another 2015 incident then can make the necessary changes
Not El Nino, but below average rainfall is still expected.
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Old 16-08-2019, 09:20 PM   #8631
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There is a positive IOD event, so less than average rainfall is expected.
Indeed it's drier than usual. See the drought code map (vs previous years like 2015)......all the info is posted 1 page ago.

Those hotspots/smoke plumes origin spots with corresponding red areas on the DC map, are very unlikely to be doused by the usual rainfall that'd fall now, unless if there is continuous 3-5 days of very heavy rainfall. You can see this effect at Palangkaraya, actually it did rain yesterday over there, somewhat heavy too.
However, the smoke plume is still there.
The fire is actually burning from the surface all the way to deep underground. And the red areas on the DC map indicates that the deep peat is all dry, so regular rainfall won't be able to douse it.


We are just missing for now (1) more number of hotspots (2) hotspots that are more intense/more smokey (3) winds that are gonna bring the smoke directly to us here in SG.





Drought Code map for 16 Aug 2019








That Jambi/S Sumatra hotspot


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Old 16-08-2019, 09:25 PM   #8632
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There is a positive IOD event, so less than average rainfall is expected.
Indeed it's drier than usual. See the drought code map (vs previous years like 2015)......all the info is posted 1 page ago.
Thanks for faithfully posting them
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Old 16-08-2019, 10:06 PM   #8633
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Singapore is in a dry spell for the past fortnight. IOD the cause. El Nino not really there as we are ENSO neutral.
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Old 17-08-2019, 07:11 AM   #8634
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A pretty good indication of the hotspots and where they are. Quite a number are located on the DC map's red areas....and those black areas on the DC maps are the peat fields. If the red areas encompasses those peat areas and there are hotspots, there is a high possibility for a serious flare up + very difficult to extinguish.


Sometimes you don't see the hotspots due to cloud cover, which blocks their detection by satellite. So they disappear temporarily, but they are still there.



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Old 17-08-2019, 09:18 AM   #8635
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Very distinct peat haze smell detected @ South.

100% not 7th month offering burning smell

Due to the S-SW winds. (incoming weak squall from Riau)

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Old 17-08-2019, 09:44 AM   #8636
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Can smell in serangoon gardens area too

Sent from my fone using GAGT
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Old 17-08-2019, 09:49 AM   #8637
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Quite smelly, but the smell would be temporary only and will subside fast.
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Old 17-08-2019, 09:51 AM   #8638
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Bedok now very very windy and the sky is rather grey. Hope it'll rain sia... The grass everywhere is so parched.
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Old 18-08-2019, 10:02 PM   #8639
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I think you all can get ready your APs and get additional new filters from TB or qoo10, if you haven't done so liao.

I think this year cannot run away liao, judging from the FFMC and DC maps and hotspot (clusters) on the red areas on the DC map, and also that end Aug to late September would be the peak of the dry season.
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Old 19-08-2019, 09:02 AM   #8640
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This year burning smell very strong
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