The Watch Thread - Part 15

[shinoku2]

My 2000+ GS watch

 

[pwillie]

The Swiss luxury watch business is, at the end of it all, still business.

Much as you all would like to indulge in your fantasy of some wizened little old men crouched over old wooden tabletops polishing movements or at an old fashioned kiln forging steel cases, purely for the whimsicality of it all, the truth is, without strong sales and profits, a manufacture cannot survive.

That's why most manufactures have been acquired and consolidated into a few big fashion conglomerates, leaving only the biggest companies independent.

If a brand of luxury watches does not have good resale value in the secondary market, it would be difficult for the manufacture to place a sufficiently profitable RRP on their new watches, plus market it to sell volume.

Hence prices in the secondary market is the only way to gauge real demand, supply and whether the brand is doing well.

Another WOT that has nothing to do with buying watches u like.
So what if the manufacture cannot survive, does it make the watch any lesser in its provenance, aesthetics or workmanship?
The simple truth is that u cannot bear to see the 4 or 5 fig sum u spent going down the drain.

 

[Dividend Hermit]

My 冷门 gold Breguet kym?

 

[indigo22]

No lah...I was like you once...young and idealistic, don't care about resale prices and brands that most watch buyers are not familiar with.. I lost a lot of money siol.

Now 20 years older, I think differently liao.

Put it this way, our fathers and uncles were right when they said Rolex and Patek were the only brands worth buying.

put it this way, during our fathers and uncles time, there was no such thing as halios or whatever-brand-which-i-cant-think-of-now

sometimes, the wisdom you think came from upper generation, are merely facts due to circumstances

 

[fatbastardx]

So what if the manufacture cannot survive, does it make the watch any lesser in its provenance, aesthetics or workmanship?
The simple truth is that u cannot bear to see the 4 or 5 fig sum u spent going down the drain.

Look at IWC... RRP for their bread & butter watch lines range from $6k to $12k for mass market steel models. AD maybe give a bit of discount. As an example, you try to sell the watch 5 years down the road, expect a 40% to 50% loss from low-ballers. Not only Singapore, but internationally, this is the going rate, according to a cursory glance at Chrono24.

In those circumstances, after a period of this, do you think watch buyers in general are going to take IWC seriously anymore? If, in this current hot market for the past couple of years, pre-owned IWC watches still selling at rock bottom even with discontinued models, what does it say about the brand. Will you even touch it with a 3 feet long pole? I have seen older aged Portuguese Chrono with box/papers asking for $4k+ on Carousell recently. That's pathetic and it really makes you want to pui on the brand, especially when you paid $8k or $9k a few years earlier.

This same scenario repeated with Panerai. Due to mismanagement of production and marketing. Buyers may be noob at first, but they are not stupid and won't be noob forever.

Yeah for the above two brands, I would still look at them and still buy new, but god damn it not at their RRP pricing even with discount. And I am not alone in thinking this way. Give it another 5 to 10 years, if Richemont don't buck up, these two brands will become like Omega. They really fugged it up. But Omega is backed by Swatch. Richemont as big as Swatch? No, and they will just scale down production and reduce RRP even more to keep the brand afloat. Our pre-owned IWC and Pam watches will then be worthless.

You are rich, you have money to burn.

These guys here asking about Tudor and the like are not like you. To them, $6k is a lot of money to spend on a watch. Do you think they won't mind seeing their purchase lose value like laosai, just for the luxury of "buying what they like?" Only people like you have the luxury of doing that, bro. Don't be irresponsible in recommending everybody practices the same purchasing habit as you lah.... They are not as rich.

 

[pwillie]

Another useless WOT, and putting words in my mouth

I did not recommment them to do the same as me, my recommendation to newbies is always spend within your means.
Don’t try to confuse the situation.

Your original WOT started by telling everyone that only resale value is paramount to having a watch collection and I disagreed with that
If someone 6k to spend on Tudor, good for them, if they cannot then there is always Seiko and Orient.
So instead of buying what u like, u rather they “forced” themselves to like something with resale value, what’s the point to the colllecton?
If someone who is NOT interested in watches, but just want a respectable daily wear, sure pls buy a Rolex.

If you need a resale value to justify in order to spend on a watch, pls don’t; treat the good resale as a bonus, not as a consideration to recoup your money.
I rather u go invest the money to enjoy the returns since u are so worried about the 6k, what if it turns out like Pam?

There are many ways to enjoy ur watch hobby, don’t have to put others down to justify ur position.

 

[fatbastardx]

Well I think I have made my point in this thread. To all those who have read my posts, it's up to you to decide.

This is the darker side of watch purchasing that watch brand fanboys will not show you. They will go gaga over pics of your watch when you first buy it. They won't be there when you are trying to sell your watch and the highest offers you get are 50% of what you think is a fair price that you listed for.

Often your head will have a battle with your heart. Often what your heart likes will not be good for your wallet or bank account.

Sorry for the pessimism, but I think a good dose of reality is needed in these times of skyrocketing watch prices fed by artificial lack of supply.

Just a couple of years ago, you guys who are now thinking whether to pay $6k for a fugging Tudor, you could buy a Rolex Submariner non-ceramic.

Just a couple of years ago, a pre-owned GMT2C 116710LN with box and papers could be bought for $8k.

Just remember that when you're shelling out $6k for a Tudor

And to those noobs, do you think prices will never come down? LOL! Maybe gaoxing84 thinks I am a noob cos of the watches I showed. But I was there in the 1990s, 2004, 2005, 2009 (crash), 2010(bottom), 2012(beginning of recovery) and I am happy to say I am still witnessing in 2019 the greatest build up to the upcoming biggest crash ever.

 

[arc13]

 

[iV3RsOn]

Fml, feel like throwing away my iwc. Should came here earlier

Heng got one wise chio bu told me, u dun lose if u dun sell

 

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

Well I think I have made my point in this thread. To all those who have read my posts, it's up to you to decide.

This is the darker side of watch purchasing that watch brand fanboys will not show you. They will go gaga over pics of your watch when you first buy it. They won't be there when you are trying to sell your watch and the highest offers you get are 50% of what you think is a fair price that you listed for.

Often your head will have a battle with your heart. Often what your heart likes will not be good for your wallet or bank account.

Sorry for the pessimism, but I think a good dose of reality is needed in these times of skyrocketing watch prices fed by artificial lack of supply.

Just a couple of years ago, you guys who are now thinking whether to pay $6k for a fugging Tudor, you could buy a Rolex Submariner non-ceramic.

Just a couple of years ago, a pre-owned GMT2C 116710LN with box and papers could be bought for $8k.

Just remember that when you're shelling out $6k for a Tudor

And to those noobs, do you think prices will never come down? LOL! Maybe gaoxing84 thinks I am a noob cos of the watches I showed. But I was there in the 1990s, 2004, 2005, 2009 (crash), 2010(bottom), 2012(beginning of recovery) and I am happy to say I am still witnessing in 2019 the greatest build up to the upcoming biggest crash ever.

The bubble in watch price is a beneficiary of the global QE among other things like china demand etc

First hot money flows into stocks and properties because they have more liquid markets.

Then slowly to watches. And yes prices will fall in the next recession

 

[tictactor]

sian is it my seiko samurai no resale value then cannot buy only bought it at 380 leh sigh

 

[whatme]

Nice thick wrist

Fml, feel like throwing away my iwc. Should came here earlier

Heng got one wise chio bu told me, u dun lose if u dun sell

 

[pwillie]

Fml, feel like throwing away my iwc. Should came here earlier

Heng got one wise chio bu told me, u dun lose if u dun sell

Hor hor, u don’t be irresponsible and tell others to do that....
But chiobu is right

 

[tictactor]

quick question - does anyone know where to get replacement seiko rubber strap keepers? Trying to get one for my samurai - the metal one keeps getting scratched

 

[cyrenic]

quick question - does anyone know where to get replacement seiko rubber strap keepers? Trying to get one for my samurai - the metal one keeps getting scratched

Just the strap keepers is tough, have to buy whole strap set usually.

At most buy OEM?

 

[cyrenic]

The bubble in watch price is a beneficiary of the global QE among other things like china demand etc

First hot money flows into stocks and properties because they have more liquid markets.

Then slowly to watches. And yes prices will fall in the next recession

Yes, a $1m property is more liquid than a $300 Seiko. Huat ah!

 

[micgoh]

Hi guys apart from rolex Singapore forum, where else do people in Singapore discuss about watches and has an active classified marketplace for trading or buying?

 

[gaoxing84]

Rast time my Jlc and Iwc all cheap cheap one la.. under $10k each.. Portuguese, fliegerchrono, mark XV etc smlj ah kua timer, ingenieur, some more is second hand... jlc reverso, master control date, etc

If I didn't buy all that crap, and added all up, could have gotten one 5711 and one AP 15300 (at that time prices la), perhaps a couple of Royal oak chronograph 39mm one.. that time sibei cheap... Second hand only $14k, $15k box paper all

wah so satki.

but based on your comment, you don't buy watches you like.

you buy big brands only. lol typical

 

[gaoxing84]

I may be a watch noob, but I know what sells and what doesn't. I know what to put your money on and what not to.

So I am telling you guys, stop throwing money at these cold door watches and watches that have little resale demand or value. Cos I had learned the hard way.

Look at these loser watches... Put ad for one week, only 4 likes.... Knn

Jaeger-LeCoultre Limited Edition for S$25,000 https://sg.carousell.com/p/226534096

In order to sell these cold door watches, you have to drop price until this level then will get many likes. Even then, after so many likes, nobody is willing to even pay a mere $7k for this

Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Calendar (40mm) for S$7,300 https://sg.carousell.com/p/220731875

This here is a nice G.O. going cheap, but nobody's grabbing it yet. Why? Cos the market deems this not even worth $5k. They rather save up and accumulate their savings for a hot Rolex.

Glashutte Original Senator Navigator [Rare] for S$4,999 https://sg.carousell.com/p/202656578

no sell no lose.

knn rolex buy this and that, standard looking.

AP earn meh? you buy come out on the spot lose except for some models.

PP even more jialat. can buy it at retail, need to scare lose meh? because you can already afford to lose that few cents

 

[gaoxing84]

I think Grand Seiko is the worst.

You buy it brand new at $8k and try to sell it on Carousell the next day at $4k also nobody wants. Maybe $2k yeah, will get many likes, but no offers, until someone low-balls you for $1500 then you no choice but to let go.

Guys, there are better watches to put your money on la.

lol then you really don't know GS.

not everything is resale value.

want resale value, put money in some investment portfolio or properties and wear a gshock. fat ah fat