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One thing to note: direct hotel website mostly won't allow free cancellation. I encountered it. Coz it was a few dollars cheaper than agod... Now I am stuck with that hotel - can't even change plan... Best is to pay a few dollars more and go for bookingDOTcom or similar sites. Of coz, if you are 100000% confirm, then book direct.
What I found out from experience is that if you book direct that allows cancellation (book now pay at hotel), the prices offered are the same as third party booking sites that allow cancellation (don't just look at the price that came up after search, the price usually doesn't include taxes). Any cheaper prices found on third party sites are usually prepaid - and prepaying is sometimes not even an option at some hotel websites when it comes to Japan.
Unless you have direct discount codes to apply for the third party booking sites, the prices actually are more or less the same with direct hotel website, under the same booking condition. Any considerably cheaper prices offered by third party booking sites are prepaid, while the higher price you saw at direct hotel website will be cancellable. (That's how it is 90% of the time when I do my research for hotels in Japan.)