CPF after 55

[sohguanh]

assuming what you post is correct.

death age tends to be normally distributed. in normal distributions, the mean = media.

it means that the median death age for men is 82. it means half the men will before 82. if you are on standard and you die before 88, you lose. it means that more than half the men will lose.

but then again most of us quite still quite far from the dying age. as we approach the age, maybe a fairy pill would be invented and we all become immoral

Sorry not to pick but you meant immortal rather than immoral correct? Immortal means live forever. Immoral is totally different meaning.

 

[Andrew833]

assuming what you post is correct.

death age tends to be normally distributed. in normal distributions, the mean = media.

it means that the median death age for men is 82. it means half the men will before 82. if you are on standard and you die before 88, you lose. it means that more than half the men will lose.

but then again most of us quite still quite far from the dying age. as we approach the age, maybe a fairy pill would be invented and we all become immoral

It's true, from gov site.
Pls figure this, 2020 male is 81.5. Example 2020, A is age 50. therefore when A reach 65, it's 2035. That's 15 years, figure will change. And by the time A reach 80, it's 30 years.

 

[Andrew833]

This is life expectancy at birth.
More relevant is life expectancy at age 65 (or 70), which is significantly higher.
From the Singapore 2020 Life Tables, life expectancy is age 65 is 19.6 for males, 23.2 for females

19.6 for males, 23.2 for females
Add 65 back is about the same lah.

 

[dork32]

This is life expectancy at birth.
More relevant is life expectancy at age 65 (or 70), which is significantly higher.
From the Singapore 2020 Life Tables, life expectancy is age 65 is 19.6 for males, 23.2 for females

hi tangent,you know how to evaluate what soguan suggested? stay in basic till 80, then switch to standard after that?

 

[dork32]

It's true, from gov site.
Pls figure this, 2020 male is 81.5. Example 2020, A is age 50. therefore when A reach 65, it's 2035. That's 15 years, figure will change. And by the time A reach 80, it's 30 years.

sorry i am not doubting you. i just too lazy to verify your numbers

 

[BBCWatcher]

assuming what you post is correct.

It's not. Andrew made a "rookie" error here. He should be taking life expectancy from no earlier than age 65, not from birth. Kindergarteners are not starting their CPF LIFE payouts next month. And if you're on the ball you'd look at life expectancy from age 70, at least in addition, since that's the default CPF LIFE payout start.

According to SingStat the average life expectancy at age 65 is 84.6 for males and 88.2 for females. That's the 2020 projection, and that's based on current age-specific mortality rates. These figures are surely too pessimistic -- today's Singaporeans will live longer, on average -- since it's based on deaths that have already occurred, not the future mortality experiences of those living today. (Unless Singapore experiences some catastrophe akin to the early 1940s, but you wouldn't be rational to forecast that.)

 

[tangent314]

19.6 for males, 23.2 for females
Add 65 back is about the same lah.

That would be 84.6 for males, 88.2 for females.
Definitely not the same 81.5 / 86.1

Also these numbers are mean. Median will be higher and mode even higher, because of the known skews in mortality rates

 

[dork32]

19.6 for males, 23.2 for females
Add 65 back is about the same lah.

actually wat tangent is saying is true. the numbers are very tight.

if the average 82, you lose big big if you are standard. you should not be on standard.

but if the average is 85, then the loss is not so big. you may want to choose standard because there is a good chance to survive way beyond 90.

 

[dork32]

Sorry not to pick but you meant immortal rather than immoral correct? Immortal means live forever. Immoral is totally different meaning.

yeah i noe the difference. just tok some rubbish here and there

 

[BBCWatcher]

but if the average is 85, then the loss is not so big. you may want to choose standard because there is a good chance to survive way beyond 90.

Let's take a look....

From the 2020 life tables the age 70 entry figure for males was 84,717. The age 90 entry figure was 25,990. In other words, if you have the same mortality experience as already deceased Singaporeans (too pessimistic), and if you're alive on your 70th birthday, you have about a 3 in 10 chance of being alive on your 90th birthday (25,990 divided by 84,717). Add in mortality improvement and it's probably roughly a 4 in 10 chance as a reasonable forecast.

 

[dork32]

My aunty die last year 3 months before 100.
Her sister after her died earlier at 97.
Her younger sis is still living at 99.
My father died two weeks before turning 91 before all his sis.
Woman power

i always tot your dad is still alive. you have been using your dad to optimize your finances,
too bad he has passed on.

 

[henrylbh]

I talked about the free lunch. And said there is no free lunch.

Free lunch only if you live above age 95

 

[Andrew833]

That would be 84.6 for males, 88.2 for females.
Definitely not the same 81.5 / 86.1

Also these numbers are mean. Median will be higher and mode even higher, because of the known skews in mortality rates

actually wat tangent is saying is true. the numbers are very tight.

if the average 82, you lose big big if you are standard. you should not be on standard.

but if the average is 85, then the loss is not so big. you may want to choose standard because there is a good chance to survive way beyond 90.

https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t&...ble19-20.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1yNkhlrUJIzm0dfjcHMHJJ
Data is there.
"Life expectancy at birth of Singapore residents has increased by about 2 years compared with a decade ago. The resident life expectancy at birth was 83.9 years in 2020, an increase from 83.7 years in 2019"
Not interested in start at 65.
Life expectancy at birth is easy to see figure.

 

[henrylbh]

i always tot your dad is still alive. too bad he has passed on.

All money in his RA flowed back to my OA within 2 days. Hours after his death, I cannot log into his CPF account anymore.

 

[dork32]

Let's take a look....

From the 2020 life tables the age 70 entry figure for males was 84,717. The age 90 entry figure was 25,990. In other words, if you have the same mortality experience as already deceased Singaporeans (too pessimistic), and if you're alive on your 70th birthday, you have about a 3 in 10 chance of being alive on your 90th birthday (25,990 divided by 84,717). Add in mortality improvement and it's probably roughly a 4 in 10 chance as a reasonable forecast.

where you get your numbers from?
what is 25.99?
why 25.99/84.17 = 0.3 how does this become 3 in 10 chance to survive till 90

 

[BBCWatcher]

Not interested in start at 65.

You might not be, but that's the minimum age to start CPF LIFE payouts. When you're discussing CPF LIFE you look at life expectancies from no earlier than age 65. Deceased primary school students aren't making CPF LIFE payout plan decisions and don't have CPF Retirement Account balances.

Life expectancy at birth is easy to see figure.

So are life expectancies from age 65. I provided the link, and it took me literally seconds to find.

 

[dork32]

All money in his RA flowed back to my OA within 2 days. Hours after his death, I cannot log into his CPF account anymore.

so sad... both for his demise and the loss of opportunity for you to milk the system

 

[BBCWatcher]

where you get your numbers from?
what is 25.99?
why 25.99/84.17 = 0.3 how does this become 3 in 10 chance to survive till 90

SingStat publishes the complete life tables in CSV format. If you pull up the CSV file you'll find standard life table data normalized/based to 100,000 at birth. 84,717 is the number of individuals celebrating their 70th birthdays, and 25,990 is the number of individuals celebrating their 90th birthdays. (Males, 2020.) These are the normalized cohort values based on past mortality experiences in Singapore (recorded deaths, and Singapore has excellent death data).

All bog standard stuff, really.

 

[tangent314]

"Life expectancy at birth of Singapore residents has increased by about 2 years compared with a decade ago. The resident life expectancy at birth was 83.9 years in 2020, an increase from 83.7 years in 2019"
Not interested in start at 65.
Life expectancy at birth is easy to see figure.

Just because you have trouble looking for the correct figures does not mean that the right thing to do is to use the wrong and irrelevant figures. The relevant figures can be found in the csv file you can download from the singstats site.

 

[fr33d0m]

wah piang, simi si actuarial. please stop spreading rubbish.

this is cpf, they say simi means simi. you dont argue.

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/member/faq/r...uts/how-does-the-cpf-life-standard-plan-work-
although i and henry buay gum, i will not shoot henry if he is right.

Your CPF LIFE monthly payouts will first be paid from your CPF LIFE premium. When your CPF LIFE premium is depleted, you will continue to receive the monthly payouts from the interest that you and other CPF LIFE members have accumulated, no matter how long you live.

Where did above statement from CPF give a hint or clue that -

The member of CPF LIFE draws premium and interest at the same time, not premium alone?

However, as a member of CPF LIFE, you enjoy the interest every moment you live and get CPF LIFE payout from both the premium and interest.

The above assertions are misinformation and valid for ownself say to ownself.

How life payout is determined is another matter, but you rojak them up to come out with your own way of looking at it and accused me of inventing

Whatever you believe.

Actuarial model is actuarial model.

layman term is layman term.

i will not argue further.