[CONSOLIDATED] 柯文哲 Ko P Discussion Thread

808180579 · Jan 13, 2024

S/N	User	DPP	KMT	TPP	Total	Δ DPP	Δ KMT	Δ TPP	Δ
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
1.	junjie433	40	35	25	100	-0.05	1.51	-1.46	3.02
2.	semiret	39	35	26	100	-1.05	1.51	-0.46	3.02
3.	THFC78	39	36	25	100	-1.05	2.51	-1.46	5.02
4.	luxerio	39	31	30	100	-1.05	-2.49	3.54	7.08
5.	testart	36	35	29	100	-4.05	1.51	2.54	8.1
6.	Stealth_PL	36	37	27	100	-4.05	3.51	0.54	8.1
7.	TanukiKoji	35.8	37	27.2	100	-4.25	3.51	0.74	8.5
8.	cleffa3000	45	33	22	100	4.95	-0.49	-4.46	9.9
9.	Swordsman	45	32	23	100	4.95	-1.49	-3.46	9.9
10.	Shion	35	38	27	100	-5.05	4.51	0.54	10.1
11.	BeHappyLo	34	34.5	21.5	90	-6.05	1.01	-4.96	12.02
12.	4_dreamz	34	33	32	99	-6.05	-0.49	5.54	12.08
13.	bongnino	41	39	20	100	0.95	5.51	-6.46	12.92
14.	likevegetable	43	37	20	100	2.95	3.51	-6.46	12.92
15.	Chrysanthemum Tea	37	29	34	100	-3.05	-4.49	7.54	15.08
16.	evilster	38	28	34	100	-2.05	-5.49	7.54	15.08
17.	HMAN	45	25	30	100	4.95	-8.49	3.54	16.98
18.	rizhal	34	31	35	100	-6.05	-2.49	8.54	17.08
19.	mgx-alander	35	30	35	100	-5.05	-3.49	8.54	17.08
20.	atamavision	37	28	35	100	-3.05	-5.49	8.54	17.08
21.	lifezard	34	31	35	100	-6.05	-2.49	8.54	17.08
22.	Wuxiamaster	35	29	36	100	-5.05	-4.49	9.54	19.08
23.	808180579	50	30	20	100	9.95	-3.49	-6.46	19.9
24.	needsomeadvice	50	35	15	100	9.95	1.51	-11.46	22.92
25.	SongManKranji	50	35	15	100	9.95	1.51	-11.46	22.92
26.	menthol28	34	28	38	100	-6.05	-5.49	11.54	23.08
27.	HeroJY	38	23	39	100	-2.05	-10.49	12.54	25.08
28.	luvbitez	36	24	40	100	-4.05	-9.49	13.54	27.08
29.	feitz	37	23	40	100	-3.05	-10.49	13.54	27.08
30.	twosix	35	25	40	100	-5.05	-8.49	13.54	27.08
31.	ckleow79	38	20	42	100	-2.05	-13.49	15.54	31.08
32.	SBS6220T	37	20	43	100	-3.05	-13.49	16.54	33.08
33.	algerr	45	15	40	100	4.95	-18.49	13.54	36.98
34.	archkiller	15	13	70	98	-25.05	-20.49	43.54	89.08

DPP: 40.05%
KMT: 33.49%
TPP: 26.46%
Source: https://vote2024.cec.gov.tw/zh-TW/indexP.html

tiredman · Jan 13, 2024

TUV2008 said:
Can someone explain to me how come in the 不分區立委 seat for DPP, the list skip number 13 and 14 and jump to 15? I thought they follow the sequence?

????u mean they skip 2 in between?

zoossh · Jan 13, 2024

lifezard said:
If you leave out those unrealistic expectations, ke-p actually performed exceptionally well this time.

The question is if he is able to hold on to this kind of support for the next few years and even grow it. That is the tough question ahead for him.

In any case the kind of margin today shows qibao was unlikely to work anyway. The difference is nearly 7%. To effect even a 5% is already high difficulty especially with a highly charismatic opponent like ke-p.

Agree

Dpp need to seriously review the 15-20% that ran away. Clearly there are issues in governance and communities they need to address.

bongnino · Jan 13, 2024

Courage said:
Everyone in TPP wins except KP. HSS becomes big time senator. That princess becomes famous although she lost. HGC become senator. All win except him thanks to his own inflated ego and fake polling

He will definitely make a comeback four years later and repeat the whole nonsense again thinking he has enough support to win Pres. It’s basically completely unrealistic and impractical and naive.

Now got analysts saying Ke is basically just a conman who wants to win the monetary incentive for every vote won.

Tpp’s white ideals are good but their methods and toxic way of running campaigns won’t allow them to win.

That’s why now analysts are saying they are a con party.

@luvbitez

bongnino · Jan 13, 2024

bongnino said:
He will definitely make a comeback four years later and repeat the whole nonsense again thinking he has enough support to win Pres. It’s basically completely unrealistic and impractical and naive.

Now got analysts saying Ke is basically just a conman who wants to win the monetary incentive for every vote won.

Tpp’s white ideals are good but their methods and toxic way of running campaigns won’t allow them to win.

That’s why now analysts are saying they are a con party.

@luvbitez

The question is how will Ke stay relevant and in the news for the next four years?

Hmmm…

luvbitez · Jan 13, 2024

bongnino said:
He will definitely make a comeback four years later and repeat the whole nonsense again thinking he has enough support to win Pres. It’s basically completely unrealistic and impractical and naive.

Now got analysts saying Ke is basically just a conman who wants to win the monetary incentive for every vote won.

Tpp’s white ideals are good but their methods and toxic way of running campaigns won’t allow them to win.

That’s why now analysts are saying they are a con party.

@luv/bitez

can u pls stop tagging me with yr nonsense?

BMWguy · Jan 13, 2024

Courage said:
KP must be sad now he cannot grab the microphone and talk everyday after the election. For someone with an ego the size of the universe, this must be the saddest situation for him

Even WORSE now is 黄珊珊 the more powerful one and she is taking over the party liao

testart · Jan 13, 2024

808180579 said:
S/N User DPP KMT TPP Total Δ DPP Δ KMT Δ TPP Δ
% % % % % % % %
1. junjie433 40 35 25 100 -0.05 1.51 -1.46 3.02
2. semiret 39 35 26 100 -1.05 1.51 -0.46 3.02
3. THFC78 39 36 25 100 -1.05 2.51 -1.46 5.02
4. luxerio 39 31 30 100 -1.05 -2.49 3.54 7.08
5. testart 36 35 29 100 -4.05 1.51 2.54 8.1
6. Stealth_PL 36 37 27 100 -4.05 3.51 0.54 8.1
7. TanukiKoji 35.8 37 27.2 100 -4.25 3.51 0.74 8.5
8. cleffa3000 45 33 22 100 4.95 -0.49 -4.46 9.9
9. Swordsman 45 32 23 100 4.95 -1.49 -3.46 9.9
10. Shion 35 38 27 100 -5.05 4.51 0.54 10.1
11. BeHappyLo 34 34.5 21.5 90 -6.05 1.01 -4.96 12.02
12. 4_dreamz 34 33 32 99 -6.05 -0.49 5.54 12.08
13. bongnino 41 39 20 100 0.95 5.51 -6.46 12.92
14. likevegetable 43 37 20 100 2.95 3.51 -6.46 12.92
15. Chrysanthemum Tea 37 29 34 100 -3.05 -4.49 7.54 15.08
16. evilster 38 28 34 100 -2.05 -5.49 7.54 15.08
17. HMAN 45 25 30 100 4.95 -8.49 3.54 16.98
18. rizhal 34 31 35 100 -6.05 -2.49 8.54 17.08
19. mgx-alander 35 30 35 100 -5.05 -3.49 8.54 17.08
20. atamavision 37 28 35 100 -3.05 -5.49 8.54 17.08
21. lifezard 34 31 35 100 -6.05 -2.49 8.54 17.08
22. Wuxiamaster 35 29 36 100 -5.05 -4.49 9.54 19.08
23. 808180579 50 30 20 100 9.95 -3.49 -6.46 19.9
24. needsomeadvice 50 35 15 100 9.95 1.51 -11.46 22.92
25. SongManKranji 50 35 15 100 9.95 1.51 -11.46 22.92
26. menthol28 34 28 38 100 -6.05 -5.49 11.54 23.08
27. HeroJY 38 23 39 100 -2.05 -10.49 12.54 25.08
28. luvbitez 36 24 40 100 -4.05 -9.49 13.54 27.08
29. feitz 37 23 40 100 -3.05 -10.49 13.54 27.08
30. twosix 35 25 40 100 -5.05 -8.49 13.54 27.08
31. ckleow79 38 20 42 100 -2.05 -13.49 15.54 31.08
32. SBS6220T 37 20 43 100 -3.05 -13.49 16.54 33.08
33. algerr 45 15 40 100 4.95 -18.49 13.54 36.98
34. archkiller 15 13 70 98 -25.05 -20.49 43.54 89.08

DPP: 40.05%
KMT: 33.49%
TPP: 26.46%
Source: https://vote2024.cec.gov.tw/zh-TW/indexP.html

Lol my deviation is 8.1

I underestimated DPP and overestimated KMT and TPP

Courage · Jan 13, 2024

For someone who has been mayor of Taipei for 8 years, and coming in 3rd as the least popular guy in Taipei says a lot about his work (lack of) there. He talks a lot and has no results to prove. I'm sure he looks at himself in the mirror everyday and thinks he looks like Andy Lau

testart · Jan 13, 2024

Ke P say he cannot resigned now though he needs to bear the responsibilities.

808180579 · Jan 13, 2024

testart said:
Lol my deviation is 8.1

I underestimated DPP and overestimated KMT and TPP

the bottom few mostly overestimated TPP

Courage · Jan 13, 2024

testart said:
Ke P say he cannot resigned now though he needs to bear the responsibilities.

He won't ever resign this guy thinks he is the oxygen the whole world need

testart · Jan 13, 2024

@junjie433 most accurate on DPP

@cleffa3000 most accurate on KMT

@semiret most accurate on TPP

luvbitez · Jan 13, 2024

testart said:
Ke P say he cannot resigned now though he needs to bear the responsibilities.

he cannot resign. hope he can remain in TPP to continue his KMT screwing. its very entertaining for me!

archkiller · Jan 13, 2024

bongnino said:
The question is how will Ke stay relevant and in the news for the next four years?

Hmmm…

Mostly likely will end up liao CST, get kicked out by party

TUV2008 · Jan 13, 2024

tiredman said:
????u mean they skip 2 in between?

Yes they skip number 13 and 14 王義川

808180579 · Jan 13, 2024

testart said:
@junjie433 most accurate on DPP

@cleffa3000 most accurate on KMT

@semiret most accurate on TPP

overall semiret tie with junjie433 leh

testart · Jan 13, 2024

808180579 said:
the bottom few mostly overestimated TPP

yeah. quite a number overestimated TPP.

menthol28 · Jan 13, 2024

lifezard said:
If you leave out those unrealistic expectations, ke-p actually performed exceptionally well this time.

The question is if he is able to hold on to this kind of support for the next few years and even grow it. That is the tough question ahead for him.

In any case the kind of margin today shows qibao was unlikely to work anyway. The difference is nearly 7%. To effect even a 5% is already high difficulty especially with a highly charismatic opponent like ke-p.

Fully agree with you. Was expecting that TPP hit at least 30%.
Now the hard work is how to retain his 3.6m supporters and stay relevant for the next for years if he still is healthy enough to fight another time. Or will DPP and KMT self implode and Ke just pick up the durains

BMWguy · Jan 13, 2024

Courage said:
He won't ever resign this guy thinks he is the oxygen the whole world need

dun worry 黄珊珊 will "make sure" he resigns

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