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might be how bto/sobf ballot works

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Old 24-11-2016, 05:00 AM   #1
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might be how bto/sobf ballot works

Hi ppl, I think I have figured out how BTO ballot. Lets discuss the example.

=============================

Fact 1:
letter from HDB:

You have applied for priority under the Parenthood Priority Scheme(PPS) and the Married Child Priority Scheme(MCPS). Your flat application will be balloted with the other PPS applications for 50% of the flat supply set aside for this scheme. If the application is not successful under the PPS, it will be balloted a second time with the other MCPS applicants for the 30% of the flat supply set aside for this scheme. If the application is also not successful under the MCPS, it will be balloted a third time in the first-timer group under the Public Scheme.

Fact 2:

Applicants’ queue positions are determined by computer balloting. HDB will shortlist applicants for up to 300% of the total flat supply.

Fact 3:
From hdbspeaks.sg http://hdbspeaks.sg/fi10/fi10336p.ns...s?OpenDocument

This is how the ballot system works. The BTO ballot is done via a computerised system with a built-in algorithm to ensure fairness to all applicants while reserving a certain percentage of the flat supply to those with priority schemes. The priority schemes thus improve an applicant’s chance of being considered for the ballot, but do not assure the applicants of a favourable queue number ahead of non-priority scheme applicants. During every BTO exercise, applicants under the various priority schemes will be randomly shortlisted before non-priority applicants. All the shortlisted applicants will then be assigned a random queue number.

Fact 4:
You can refer to this link for the priority chances allocated:
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/res...iority-schemes

=============================
Example:

UNITS

BTO distribution for non-elderly in mature estates
Flat type: 2-room Flexi to 5-room

Assume there are 100 units available.

First timers: 95% of the flats are set aside. This case 95 units.

Within the 95%, the break down is:
  • Families (PPS) = 30% (30 units)
  • Families (MCPS) = 30% (30 units)
  • Other families = 35% (35 units) (total add up to 95%)


Second timers: 5% (This case only 5 units for you.)


APPLICANTS
Assuming total 400 families applied.
300 are first timers, 100 second timers.

out of the first timers there are
  • PPS family: 90
  • MCPS family : 90 (and 30 PPS families also applied for MCPS, yes you can apply more than one scheme)
  • just first timer family: 120
TOTAL 300 first timers families

Second timer family: 100
There are pps and mcps too, but to simplify I just ignore it, assume no one applied priority scheme.


BALLOT

First, hdb will ballot for top 100%, in this case is 100 units.
HDB will first shortlist 100 families, then assign random number to these 100 families.

FIRST TIMER DRAW
95 units for first timer

PPS DRAWS FIRST

30 units for PPS: 90 families will lucky draw for the 30 chance. (take note, each family has 2 lucky draw ticket, but if you have failed twice, you will have extra tickets)

Total 90 families ballot for 30 units.

MCPS DRAWS SECOND
30 units for MCPS: 90 families + the 30 PPS and MCPS families who failed ballot (To simplify, I just assume they unlucky and all 30 are unsuccessful in PPS draw).

Total 120 families ballot for 30 units.

ALL OTHER FIRST TIMER DRAWS
35 units for Other families: 120 first timer families + 120 unsuccessful PPS & MCPS families

Total 240 families ballot for 35 units.

End of first timer for now.
95 families have now been shortlisted, 205 first timer families are now out of the top 100%. (But they still have chance, just not with queue number smaller than 100)

SECOND TIMER DRAWS
5 units for second timer: 100 second timer families(no first timer involved)

Total 100 second time families ballot for 5 units.

100% SHORTLISTED
Now these 100 lucky families will be given random queue number from 1 to 100. If you are a damn lucky second timer you still can get number 1!!!!!!

FINAL BALLOT

Now, the rest of the 300 families, regardless first or second time, will all ballot to get a queue number from 101 onward, in this case up to 400.

(Note, first timer gets two lucky draw tickets, second timer only one, so in this case, 205 first timer families = 410 tickets, 95 second timer families = 95 tickets,, total 505 tickets)

HDB will shortlist applicants for up to 300% of the total flat supply.

In this case those families with number 301 and above are out of the game. If you are a lucky second timer, you can get number 101 from this ballot.


What do you think?
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Last edited by plusOne83; 24-11-2016 at 05:09 AM..
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Old 09-01-2017, 05:35 PM   #2
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v clear explaination. But how about MGPS, TCP, TPS, SPS etc? why are they not in your calculations?
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Old 30-10-2019, 11:57 AM   #3
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Does this mechanism still apply now?
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