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Old 01-04-2019, 08:29 PM   #406
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If hdb market pick up, will be problematic in the future. I don't see young couples can afford it at all. Unless more grants was given for first timer or whatever timer I not sure.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:29 PM   #407
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My feel is that owners of older hdb flats are looking to quickly cash out and get a new place with fresh 99 year lease, while the iron is still hot. There have been lots of debate about what happens when the 99 year cycle starts creeping up on older flats and affecting resale prices. So move out and upgrade while there is still a chance. I see demand for resale hdb only getting worse in the coming years.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:37 PM   #408
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My feel is that owners of older hdb flats are looking to quickly cash out and get a new place with fresh 99 year lease, while the iron is still hot. There have been lots of debate about what happens when the 99 year cycle starts creeping up on older flats and affecting resale prices. So move out and upgrade while there is still a chance. I see demand for resale hdb only getting worse in the coming years.
I see the government converting HDB land to private land soon then since the demand for HDB is so weak.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:42 PM   #409
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If hdb market pick up, will be problematic in the future. I don't see young couples can afford it at all. Unless more grants was given for first timer or whatever timer I not sure.
But still, if market is good, economy is good, wages are rising, property market as a whole should be rising. HDB can rise at a slower pace as compared to condo but i don't think it should be declining.
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Old 01-04-2019, 09:10 PM   #410
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We have been talking about the condo market so much that we have neglected HDB.Take a look at the resale price index graph in the link below. Unlike the previous property market rally from '09 to '14, where both HDB and private rose in tandem, the current spike in condo prices is not supported by rise in HDB prices at all. In fact, HDB prices have been decreasing for the past 5 years.

Many of the buyers here are upgraders from HDB and will be selling your HDB when treasure TOPs. Have you all ever considered that your flat may not fetch the price that you originally thought it could? Most importantly, why is HDB prices and condo moving in different directions? Is the property market and economy really improving or is the prices only driven up by developers bids? This is not sustainable... Good luck to all.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...s-dip-03-in-q1
Even by the developer bids, once market is made it is made. Housing is a special asset class owners can stay and wait for the market to bounce back even when the economic is heading south, provided they exercise caution and do their math well before purchasing. With so many CMs in place, many owners would have holding powers.

HDB supply are increasing while demand, especially for older flat are decreasing. A few years down the road,many more HDB are reaching their 5 years MOP, flat with more modern layout and better landscaping. Who acts first might save more.
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Old 01-04-2019, 09:37 PM   #411
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In real context, I do not think condo price should be supported by HDB price. Government has made it clear that HDB should not be used as an investment tool.

Letís revisit the fundamentals, HDBís main objective is to provide an affordable roof for majority of the ordinary peasant and price of HDB should be controlled and make affordable to the mass majority. That is why 80% of the citizen stays in HDB.

On the other hand, private condo/landed are considered as a luxury item. This segment is for those who can afford living an echelon lifestyle. Roof over their top is no longer an issue for this group of pple, it is a kind of different living lifestyle we are talking about here. Thatís y only 20% of the citizen stays in condo/landed.

We cannot say that if HDB Price falls, condo price should also fall in tandem. They are two different segments with different objectives to begin with.

If condo price is beyond reach for some HDB upgraders, It simply means private is not their league. We canít sacrifice the 20% by catering to the 80% just because some of them are HDB upgraders and condo price should be made affordable to them to satisfy their ego living in private. This is a warped logic.

They have to work hard for it in order to move on to private condo. Thatís y some bros here took years of hard work to save enough to move on to private. If You want something, u work for it.

If HDB price is beyond reach for majority of the citizens, then itís another story. Govtís intervention is necessary to help subdue the HDB price to make it affordable for young couples.
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Old 01-04-2019, 10:00 PM   #412
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But still, if market is good, economy is good, wages are rising, property market as a whole should be rising. HDB can rise at a slower pace as compared to condo but i don't think it should be declining.
That is when everything is smooth. I not in support of decline in hdb, but hope young couples can be helped if really hdb rises too high.
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Old 01-04-2019, 10:14 PM   #413
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How many units are sold at TT for its 2nd week?
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Old 01-04-2019, 10:14 PM   #414
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Ground sentiment different after govt said HDB will go to zero and return to govt.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:13 AM   #415
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How many units are sold at TT for its 2nd week?
I cycled to there last week see. no people one. mostly agents.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:18 AM   #416
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But still, if market is good, economy is good, wages are rising, property market as a whole should be rising. HDB can rise at a slower pace as compared to condo but i don't think it should be declining.
2yrs back met a lecturer in economics, he asked me why sg without nature goods or products that can export but still doing so well? by just collect taxes?

HDB is our product, that's why it keeps building non-stop and prices keep going up for new BTO. For that, resale flat prices will definitely decline, as the waiting time for new flats now shortened to 2yrs. If you can wait for 2yrs, why buy resale?
To rub on the wound further, now balance flats can be available for you to book online from mid of this year starts.

not to forget, when announced HDB is zero value when 99yrs. It added another nail onto the old resale flats.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:45 AM   #417
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HDB should be seen as a defensive asset, a place to stay (at a reasonable opportunity cost) and rent out at a decent yield (subject to the meeting the relevant criteria). For capital appreciation, you shouldn't rely on HDB in the first place, and should be looking towards private property or other investments such as stocks, ETFs etc.

However in this regulatory environment and macroeconomic climate, I would be very cautious about investing in property for a lot of reasons. Some of the earlier posters already commented how buyers who bought earlier developments such as Tapestry have now been "played out" by the latest round of CM pushing new development launch prices lower. This is an example of regulatory risk, and the government has shown that it is much more willing to intervene now then it has done over the last few property boom cycles. So you cannot be looking at previous gains made in prior market cycles and/or before these CM were put up, and assume that , yes you will also be making the same gains as a property investor.

There are also plenty of risks from the macroeconomic perspective, and you dont' need a Masters in Finance to realize that we are at the close to the end of the bull run in the equity markets. Currently, everyone is feeling rich, buffed by high valuations of their stocks and private property and on paper have infinite holding power. But you only need a small decline in the stock market front to see a number of these fat cats trying to cash out, and that is where the fun (or misery depending on your positions in the market) begins.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:11 AM   #418
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HDB should be seen as a defensive asset, a place to stay (at a reasonable opportunity cost) and rent out at a decent yield (subject to the meeting the relevant criteria). For capital appreciation, you shouldn't rely on HDB in the first place, and should be looking towards private property or other investments such as stocks, ETFs etc.

However in this regulatory environment and macroeconomic climate, I would be very cautious about investing in property for a lot of reasons. Some of the earlier posters already commented how buyers who bought earlier developments such as Tapestry have now been "played out" by the latest round of CM pushing new development launch prices lower. This is an example of regulatory risk, and the government has shown that it is much more willing to intervene now then it has done over the last few property boom cycles. So you cannot be looking at previous gains made in prior market cycles and/or before these CM were put up, and assume that , yes you will also be making the same gains as a property investor.

There are also plenty of risks from the macroeconomic perspective, and you dont' need a Masters in Finance to realize that we are at the close to the end of the bull run in the equity markets. Currently, everyone is feeling rich, buffed by high valuations of their stocks and private property and on paper have infinite holding power. But you only need a small decline in the stock market front to see a number of these fat cats trying to cash out, and that is where the fun (or misery depending on your positions in the market) begins.
Agreed. The smart ones study the data carefully, fools rush their decisions.

Just like looking at this chart,

https://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/private-home-prices-dipped-06-in-q1

The trend (up or down) is quite obvious. No need a doctorate in Mathematics to understand inflection point and gradient of curve.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:20 AM   #419
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Total layman here


Let's say right now I'm looking at 99 yr condo vs 99 yr HDB, I can expect both to hit 0 value when 99 years are up right?

But realistically what are the odds of either hitting 99 years?

For condos under private developers, the land they pay for end le then what? Buy again and build new condo? What happens to the ones currently staying there?

For HDB right now, I think it's obvious, I feel govt will not let it hit 0 but will just buyout the rest at a damn low nominal price when left maybe 10-15 years, ask the residents to FO and get other flats elsewhere. So far in the future, different plots of lands will have different strategic uses le mah
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:33 AM   #420
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Resale price very much depending on bank valuation.

These years after QE, banks have been very generous in loan, its just MAS ruling that limit's loan quantum. See those developers put in their bid price.

BTO resale still link and affect mass mkt sentiment, resale valuation have to come down if they want to delink public and private housing.

Selling price benchmark each others,
starts from a BTO, maybe 300psf, resale 400psf, new DBSS 600psf, new EC 800psf > now 1k psf, new OCR PC 1.2K psf, new RCR PC 1.7k psf......

The classification is very clear to dev, ppty agent and the banks, to the buyers there is not much choice but to accept as it is.

BTO should be place out of the league.
Levy and sales proceeds penalised 2nd timers, thus those choose to go back to bto again could have been force to explore else where. This part they should look into.
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