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Old 12-04-2019, 05:21 PM   #586
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Unfortunately, itís just a 2 bedder penthouse, should have a lot of open space like roof terrace, balconies. Thats y cheap cheap.
Meanwhile just announce Tiong Bahru hdb went for same price lol
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Old 12-04-2019, 05:25 PM   #587
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this seem like a hdb size neighbourhood estate with swimming pools, guards, fences and gates, goodluck getting iin and out of carpark

meh

if i choose condo i will prefer its exclusivity
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Old 12-04-2019, 07:06 PM   #588
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Reflection lease starts at 2005/2006. TOP around 2011/2012.
Itís a near 14 year old condo.

Itís like coco palm, lease starts at 2008 though it just recently TOP. 10 year lease gone.
Can u say coco palm is a 1 year condo?


Another thing about the lease. If I am not wrong, the 99 year lease is from the developer Keppel. Seems they own the freehold right on it. Which means when the 99 years is up, the land goes back to Keppel.

Most of us won't live long enough to see that happen, but the shorter term impact is that it can't go for enbloc sale, unlike other 99 year leasehold land that comes from GLS sales. So value of the property likely go down in longer term, for the same reason as for HDB flats.

It isn't just Reflections. Same for Corals and Caribbean too. And a number of other projects.
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Old 12-04-2019, 07:31 PM   #589
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Actually if not for that, Reflections is a nice project. Good location too, considering the price PSF is close to those selling much further out, maybe even cheaper than some like Garden Residences and Kent Ridge Hill. Even the new one coming up near by to Reflections, the Avenue South Residence project, looks like going to be close to that PSF price. And that's considering its at Kampong Bahru Hill, not walking distance to an MRT station.

Just that the lower PSF pricing is partly also due to the big unit sizes at Reflections. If Reflections 2 bedder is 1012 sq ft like someone mentioned, that's bigger than some of the 3 bedroom units at Avenue South Residence. So its a quantum price game as well. And I think those left at Reflections are mainly the ones facing the golf course, which is going to be redeveloped within the next 5 to 10 years, under the recent URA master plan announcement. So not much view either, and there's the construction noise to contend with.
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Old 12-04-2019, 08:08 PM   #590
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Actually if not for that, Reflections is a nice project. Good location too, considering the price PSF is close to those selling much further out, maybe even cheaper than some like Garden Residences and Kent Ridge Hill. Even the new one coming up near by to Reflections, the Avenue South Residence project, looks like going to be close to that PSF price. And that's considering its at Kampong Bahru Hill, not walking distance to an MRT station.

Just that the lower PSF pricing is partly also due to the big unit sizes at Reflections. If Reflections 2 bedder is 1012 sq ft like someone mentioned, that's bigger than some of the 3 bedroom units at Avenue South Residence. So its a quantum price game as well. And I think those left at Reflections are mainly the ones facing the golf course, which is going to be redeveloped within the next 5 to 10 years, under the recent URA master plan announcement. So not much view either, and there's the construction noise to contend with.
Probably u would also have noticed the psf between different units in reflection has a big GAP. Some sea facing big units can have a much higher psf than those smaller units facing the Golf course.
Those Golf course facing units with weird layout and pillars are selling 400 to 500psf cheaper than those sea facing units. It would be a double whammy for those units facing golf course once the lease of the golf course is up in 2022. Not only the serene Golf course view is taken away, we also dunno how close or how noisy the construction would be like after 2022.

Honestly, reflection is a nice project with unique architectural design. However, many of the units’ interior layout are being compromised (with sharp slanted pointed angles/walls and big round pillars), probably also because the designer are more focused in making the exterior design to look spectacular rather than taking into consideration of the practicability of the interior layout.
Corals and reflection maintenance fee is another rip off factor as well.

As for the land lease status, another similar example is the Pasir Ris grove site. CDL acquire the land freehold and sell it to buyers with LH status.
In such cases, can I also conclude that the likelihood of such project getting enbloc is very slim in future? (Correct me if I’m wrong)

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Old 12-04-2019, 08:49 PM   #591
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Probably u would also have noticed the psf between different units in reflection has a big GAP. Some big sea facing units can have a much higher psf than those smaller units facing the Golf course.
Those Golf course facing units with weird layout and pillars are selling 400 to 500psf cheaper than those sea facing units. It would be a double whammy for those units facing golf course once the lease of the golf course is up in 2022. Not only the serene Golf course view is taken away, we also dunno how close or how noisy the construction would be like after 2022.

Honestly, reflection is a nice project with unique architectural design. However, many of the unitsí interior layout are being compromised (with sharp pointed angles and pillars), probably also because the designer are more focused in making the exterior design to look spectacular than taking into consideration of the practicability of the interior layout.
Corals and reflection maintenance fee is another rip off factor as well.

As for the land lease status, another similar example is the Pasir Ris grove site. CDL acquire the land freehold and sell it to buyers with LH status.
In such cases, can I also conclude that the likelihood of such project getting enbloc is very slim in future? (Please Correct me if Iím wrong)
Another project is sixteen35 in Geylang.

When I told agent about this lease issue, agent said donít think too much, just buy. Buyers rush in without thinking too much and it is now already sold out...I hope buyers bought with their eyes opened.
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Old 12-04-2019, 09:02 PM   #592
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Another project is sixteen35 in Geylang.

When I told agent about this lease issue, agent said donít think too much, just buy. Buyers rush in without thinking too much and it is now already sold out...I hope buyers bought with their eyes opened.
Many bought that project because agent keep saying this ďwhy pay 400-500psf more for PLQ where 1635 is also within distance to PLQĒ
But then again, I canít think of any Geylang properties that has LH status. U know what I mean.
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Old 12-04-2019, 09:32 PM   #593
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As for the land lease status, another similar example is the Pasir Ris grove site. CDL acquire the land freehold and sell it to buyers with LH status.
In such cases, can I also conclude that the likelihood of such project getting enbloc is very slim in future? (Correct me if Iím wrong)

Yup. I should think almost no chance. Unlikely the land-owner developer will let other developers come in, and top up their lease to 99 years again. Unless they charge a huge premium, which won't be attractive then.

Not just the CDL ones at Pasir Ris. Also quite a few by Far East, on 103 year leases, like The Shore, or Alana and Cabana.
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Old 12-04-2019, 11:50 PM   #594
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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/are-developer-debt-fears-overblown

Would you rather be servicing mortgages at higher interest rates after purchasing units at record prices or let Developers do so since it is their decision to be euphoric in bidding for land at high prices and they should bear the responsibility and face the consequences?
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Old 12-04-2019, 11:57 PM   #595
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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/are-developer-debt-fears-overblown

Would you rather be servicing mortgages at higher interest rates after purchasing units at record prices or let Developers do so since it is their decision to be euphoric in bidding for land at high prices and they should bear the responsibility and face the consequences?
Exactly my thoughts. Why let developers dictate your property prices? Just be a little patient, they will lower their crazy asking prices. Those who caught the boat last year, too bad for you.
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Old 13-04-2019, 01:27 AM   #596
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https://www.zaobao.com.sg/znews/sing...0190412-948114

Hehe, suddenly affinity now looks cheap.
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Old 13-04-2019, 05:29 AM   #597
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I remembered reading a front page article of the local newspaper, can't remember was it in late 1990s or early 2000s.

A couple bought a condo for 600k+. There was an economic downturn and the price dropped to about 400k+. Bank asked them to cough up the difference. Of course they couldn't. Bank took their condo and they were saddled with a 200k debt and husband and wife have to slowly pay back the bank d 200k debt and at d same time no more condo...
Thanks to MAS, this less likely to happen anymore. Cooling measure will make this batch of buyers more resilient during downturn because if market don't drop below 20-25%, nobody will get margin call
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Old 13-04-2019, 06:28 AM   #598
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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/are-developer-debt-fears-overblown

Would you rather be servicing mortgages at higher interest rates after purchasing units at record prices or let Developers do so since it is their decision to be euphoric in bidding for land at high prices and they should bear the responsibility and face the consequences?
no subscription. can share article?
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Old 13-04-2019, 06:36 AM   #599
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no subscription. can share article?
Are developer debt fears overblown?

Analysts advise investors to keep tabs on debt and project sales. Some developers also leaning on recurring income streams; Aspial and Oxley are already deleveraging

Thu, Apr 11, 2019


AS PUNDITS squint at their recession-watch indicators and Hyflux becomes the latest cautionary tale, attention has fallen to Singapore's most leveraged companies and the question is where the next risks lie.

A quick scan shows that property developers are the most highly-leveraged among large- and mid-cap firms, with their average interest cover having trended downwards since the property market peaked in 2013.

Indeed, it is no surprise that developers tend to take on more debt, given the capital-intensive nature of their business. They can also leverage higher because their assets are tangible and can be secured, which may not be the case for companies in other sectors.

But it would be prudent for developers to mind their debt more closely now, OCBC Credit Research analyst Wong Hong Wei told The Business Times. "Refinancing costs for high-yield companies have mostly increased. For example, Chip Eng Seng's latest bond is issued at 6 per cent (interest cost), compared to 4.75 to 4.9 per cent previously."

He added: "The property market in Singapore is no longer buoyant. There may be less room for error."

To be sure, default fears are not top of mind for most analysts.

Singapore's most highly-geared developers like Aspial and Oxley are already in deleveraging mode, Mr Wong said. "Aspial is already trying to deleverage, so it is less about intent and more about the ability to deleverage faster than the current pace."

Aspial's historically-high gearing stems partly from accounting rules, RHB analyst Vijay Natarajan noted.

For Singapore residential developments, revenue is recognised based on a "percentage-of-completion" method. But for Australia 108, Aspial's residential skyscraper project in Melbourne, the "completed-contract method" is applied and cash flow cannot be progressively recognised until units are handed over to buyers.

At the end of last year, Aspial recognised about A$177 million (S$171 million) in revenue from Australia 108, as buyers started moving into the building's lower levels.

The company still has S$610 million of unbilled contracts for the upper floors. Like it has done since last year, Aspial said it will use these progressive proceeds to pay off some of its debts before maturity.

It has S$68 million medium-term notes maturing in June. It has S$200 million retail bonds maturing in April 2020 and S$150 million retail bonds maturing in August 2020.

Mr Natarajan said: "One risk is construction risk, which I believe the developer should be able to manage."

Although construction has progressed to level 70 out of the development's 101 levels - only one floor was added in the December-quarter last year - Australia 108 is, in fact, ahead of schedule, Aspial said.

A spokesman told BT: "Physical progress in terms of levels has been slower as levels 67 to 71 comprise rooms housing mechanical and electrical equipment and two facilities.

"Physical progress appears slower due to the complexity of the works for these levels. After this, physical progress will be faster for the residential levels from level 72. In addition, there was a long Christmas/year-end holiday season in December/January."

Mr Natarajan added: "As long as they can sell projects at a margin within the timeline, there is no issue. The issue comes only when they are stuck with unsold units and are unable to pay their debt."

Another developer which is working down its debt burden is Oxley, which said it aims to gradually reduce its net gearing to one time from 2.55 times net debt-to-equity now.

It has S$300 million in retail bonds maturing in November 2019 and S$150 million in retail bonds maturing in May 2020.

To pay down these debts, Oxley is focused on divestments and a quick turnover for completed projects, such as Dublin Landings in Ireland and The Peak, Oxley's largest mixed development in Cambodia, which includes the country's first Shangri-la hotel.

As at early February, Oxley had S$3.3 billion of unbilled contracts from developments here and overseas, up from S$2.8 billion in early November last year.

In Singapore, Oxley has received an expression of interest to acquire Chevron House for S$1.025 billion, which represents a 30 per cent premium to book value.

It has hired exclusive agents to sell its Novotel and Mercure hotels on Stevens Road. The hotels have a carrying value of S$905 million.

From its land-buying spree in Singapore over the last two years, Oxley has also accumulated a launch pipeline of more than 3,800 units.

From last April to date, 2,069 units have been sold, Oxley told BT. Its 171-unit condo Mayfair Modern sold 15 units over the weekend.

Of the remaining unsold units, 1,000 belong to Riverfront Residences and Affinity at Serangoon, which are joint-venture projects so risk is shared. Oxley's stake in Riverfront is 35 per cent; its stake in Affinity is 40 per cent.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets analyst YiYuan Zhao noted that take-up rates for Oxley's homes in the six months to December 2018 were below her estimates, but momentum is stabilising. She expects Oxley's gross margin for the Singapore projects to hold above 15 per cent, since it was a first-mover in the en bloc spree, buying land at costs around 25 to 30 per cent lower than comparable sites.

She added: "Oxley's more crucial projects were launched last year. What's left are the smaller projects - Parkwood Residences and iNSPACE."

Since no one can tell when the next property market crash will happen, analysts want to see developers moving their units and giving their bankers less reasons to worry.

DBS analyst Derek Tan said that loans in the property space are largely project loans tied to ongoing projects: "Most names like Roxy-Pacific and Chip Eng Seng have project level debt which is tied to their recent land banking of residential land in Singapore. Therefore the strength of pre-sales during launch will be a key data point to gather if the property companies can continue to pay off their debt obligations."

Roxy-Pacific purchased six residential development sites in Singapore last year.

In January, it launched RV Altitude (140 units) and Fyve Derbyshire (71 units). A total of 27 units were sold as of March, Urban Redevelopment Authority data shows, as buying softened after fresh cooling measures were announced last July. Roxy has four more Singapore projects with a combined 393 units in the pipeline. These are expected to be launched over the next six months.

Meanwhile, Chip Eng Seng (CES) owns 60 per cent of the 805-unit Park Colonial project, which was launched last July, the same day the cooling measures were announced. The project is 71 per cent sold but construction was only 10 per cent completed as at end-2018, implying a healthy amount of unbilled sales. CES is also expected to launch the 276-unit Changi Garden this quarter. More recently in January, it bought a land parcel at Kampong Java that it plans to redevelop into about 380 apartment units.

Another important trend that might improve the sector's resilience is that developers are now more focused on growing their recurring income from investment properties, instead of relying on development income alone, RHB's Mr Natarajan said.

DBS' Mr Tan agreed: "Both Roxy-Pacific and Chip Eng Seng have fairly strong recurring income from their hotel investments (Grand Mercure Roxy and Roxy Square for Roxy; Park Hotel Alexandra and other investment properties for CES) to provide some form of buffer in the event the residential market slows.

"Some of the other names like Ho Bee have a large proportion of their revenues from rental income, which are more than sufficient to pay off their interest costs."

Looking beyond the property developers, analysts are generally not fretting over corporate debt. OCBC's Mr Wong said: "The pace of increase in leverage for Singapore-listed companies has stabilised in the past two years, with interest rates still low for longer and bank debt and capital markets conducive for corporates."

DBS analyst Andy Sim pointed out that not all companies with high leverage are cause for alarm. They must be looked at on a case-by-case basis and in detail.

He said: "Gearing should be looked at in relation to the industry (asset- and capex-heavy sectors such as property and utilities tend to have higher gearing), stage of business cycle, business model (for example, a trading business with high working capital loans), as well as other factors such as upcoming or recent acquisitions."

Mr Sim added: "For instance, in ThaiBev's case, its gearing spiked after its acquisition of a majority stake in Saigon Beer and Alcohol Corp (Sabeco) in December 2017. In this case, we studied the factors surrounding it and believe the company will be able to service its loan obligations and has the ability to deleverage over time, given its stable operating cashflow... And, if we looked at its historical track record - after its acquisition of F&N back in 2012 - gearing jumped but has subsequently climbed down over time."

In the past 12 months, a number of large-cap firms have also made more use of leverage to grow.

This is a function of where the companies are in their life cycle, noted Mr Wong: "Companies need to evolve... Large Singapore corporates appear to be at an inflection point where they are in the midst of business transformation, like Keppel and Singtel."

Mr Wong expects the credit risks for such firms to increase in the short to medium term as they take on more leverage to grow in new and unproven directions and with potentially higher operating risks.
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Old 13-04-2019, 06:56 AM   #600
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Good to hear that Developers are starting to deleverage.
Else they will acquire land like there’s no tomorrow.
Oxyley in the last 2 years is a good example.

This hopefully will stabilised the oversupply issue and stablized the price.
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