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Old 06-07-2019, 11:00 AM   #1276
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Yes agree and not just that, let me state an example.
Some mega projects like treasure is already set to fail in the beginning. While many are still mocking on its number of unsold units and only managed to hit 17% sales as of now, many fails to see that it has a total of 2300 units to begin with. Is it realistic for such Super mega size project to hit an impressive sale record within a short time frame? Common sense tells us that this kinda mega project confirm takes years to sell. If can sell so fast within a short time frame, it will be a mockery to our latest CM.

It’s like two students who are given different sets of assignment to complete within an hour.
Student A can complete 10 question out of 10 questions (translate to 100% completion) within an hour.
Student B was given 20 questions and could only managed to complete 11 questions out of 20 questions within an hour. This translate to 55% completion.
In this case, can we mock at student B for its Low percentage in completing the number of questions within an hour and conclude student A is smarter?

Put it this way, if the sales volume of treasure transaction is translated into sky everton’s case, it would deem to be a 100% sell out.

Recently, in June alone saw another 52 units moving for treasure.
The problem here is not about no one is buying, the problem here is there’s too much supply in the market and it definitely takes time for the market to absorb these unsold units, especially those mega size projects.
One point to add is that whether the project is 2200 or 100 units was decided by the developer, meaning the student has the choice of taking a one hour paper with 10 questions or 100 questions. Just like you want to argue ‘willing seller, willing buyer’, you should consistently support ‘willing student who chose the number of questions to attempt should not complain unfortunately the paper has more questions than others’.
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Old 06-07-2019, 02:35 PM   #1277
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Looks like a UOL monopoly along clementi avenue 1!

I frequent that area last time for some reason and would like to share that the 2 land parcels that UOL purchased used to have HDB flats on it. So, do not underestimate the potential of HDB land/flats!
that whole stretch of hdb blocks from 401 to 408 or 9... i walked home from school everyday during primary sch days... the current nan hua high school and casa clementi hdb plots were still a hilly forest with "haunted house" (i think actually some vet) lol...

i stayed in clementi central for 25yrs. nowadays i go back to clementi area 2-3 times a year... was there last week... looked at my old house which is now a soon to be completed ~40storey hdb... so nostalgic... but at the same time i see the whole clementi area from ave 1 to 6... so many skyscraper hdbs now... but still with the same roads... now ask me stay there, don't think i would want.
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Old 06-07-2019, 02:56 PM   #1278
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Bro, are you saying that using your criteria, most projects DO NOT meet, but there are still some rare ‘gems’ that can meet?
Care to elaborate your definition of “meet”?
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Old 06-07-2019, 03:33 PM   #1279
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One point to add is that whether the project is 2200 or 100 units was decided by the developer, meaning the student has the choice of taking a one hour paper with 10 questions or 100 questions. Just like you want to argue ‘willing seller, willing buyer’, you should consistently support ‘willing student who chose the number of questions to attempt should not complain unfortunately the paper has more questions than others’.
I was trying to think hard and make connection between what u meant by students’ choice in number of questions in the assignment they choose vs my statement on “willing buyer, willing seller”. They simply don’t gel and probably you have misunderstood my point.

With no intention to offend, bro, I noticed recently your points are rather skewed when u keep using % of unsold units (especially on mega projects) to prove your point on the poor buying sentiments. You may only be telling the half truth.
I do acknowledge some projects like G&L are not selling well and have not evaded the fact that they have priced their unit in a rather obscene manner.
But in the recent past two months, I’m still seeing treasure moving around 50 plus units and Florence are also moving around 50 plus units every month and is not as gloomy as you have painted. Unless you are telling me the ura/srx/per sq foot data are lying? Obviously, these mega projects needs to take longer time to sell compared to smaller project like sky Everton.

But what I’m seeing here is there’s still some buying activities going on despite recent dampening factors like latest CM on LTV and ABSD, slow economy, higher interest rate etc.

Honestly, I’m not even impressed when sky Everton is 50% sold because it has only 200 plus units to begin with. Recent article saw a 1.3% rise in price and I’m not impressed at all as it could be a case of anomaly.

We need to look at things in totality and comment objectively.
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Old 06-07-2019, 05:57 PM   #1280
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Care to elaborate your definition of “meet”?
Meet in terms of rentability

Rentability refers to the shortest time you can recoup from the total cost you have committed in your property. Let say u took 25 years of rental earnings to break even of what you had paid, the property could be sold after 25 years and the amount u get will be your net profit (even if you sell it at some losses of what u paid initially due to reduced lease or old/wear and tear issues).
In other words, if u buy a property that is harder to rent out, you may take a longer time to break even of what you had paid for. Then this may be deemed as poor investment cos your unit will always face the risk of being left vacant. Not forgetting the time and opportunity cost should also be factored in.
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Old 06-07-2019, 06:03 PM   #1281
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I was trying to think hard and make connection between what u meant by students’ choice in number of questions in the assignment they choose vs my statement on “willing buyer, willing seller”. They simply don’t gel and probably you have misunderstood my point.

With no intention to offend, bro, I noticed recently your points are rather skewed when u keep using % of unsold units (especially on mega projects) to prove your point on the poor buying sentiments. You may only be telling the half truth.
I do acknowledge some projects like G&L are not selling well and have not evaded the fact that they have priced their unit in a rather obscene manner.
But in the recent past two months, I’m still seeing treasure moving around 50 plus units and Florence are also moving around 50 plus units every month and is not as gloomy as you have painted. Unless you are telling me the ura/srx/per sq foot data are lying? Obviously, these mega projects needs to take longer time to sell compared to smaller project like sky Everton.

But what I’m seeing here is there’s still some buying activities going on despite recent dampening factors like latest CM on LTV and ABSD, slow economy, higher interest rate etc.

Honestly, I’m not even impressed when sky Everton is 50% sold because it has only 200 plus units to begin with. Recent article saw a 1.3% rise in price and I’m not impressed at all as it could be a case of anomaly.

We need to look at things in totality and comment objectively.
No problem. I believe your idea of time of entry is similar to mine, so we are actually looking at the data from an arms length. You notice I am only replying to you as I wanted to exchange notes with you.

I was also surprised by the increase in price. However, must also look at the volume of transaction and percentage of transaction of new launch versus resale.

Some Analysts say this is a dampening effect, meaning last quarter minus 1%, this quarter plus 1 %, next quarter 0 or minus again. But not deviate by the band of plus minus 1 to 2%.

Last edited by ThinkCarefully; 06-07-2019 at 06:05 PM..
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Old 06-07-2019, 06:36 PM   #1282
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No problem. I believe your idea of time of entry is similar to mine, so we are actually looking at the data from an arms length. You notice I am only replying to you as I wanted to exchange notes with you.

I was also surprised by the increase in price. However, must also look at the volume of transaction and percentage of transaction of new launch versus resale.

Some Analysts say this is a dampening effect, meaning last quarter minus 1%, this quarter plus 1 %, next quarter 0 or minus again. But not deviate by the band of plus minus 1 to 2%.
Allow me to chip in here as I’ve just bought another place at a 2016 price.

I believe we are in unchartered territory - the years of QE: Low interest rates and money printing has led to 11 years of asset price inflation.

What will happen to the property market in the next 5 years? Honestly it is anyone’s Guess. I used to be more sure but now I realise this economic cycle is very different from the previous ones. Governments will not allow their economies to correct and instead will hold interest rates Low and money supply high. We could be seeing a persistently long period of high prices.

This means that the prudent people who believe in spending within your means will suffer during this period of time.

Also the future generations will suffer because there has been no real economic growth - just inflation of asset prices.

However, also because of the large amounts of debt being held and the price rises- when a crisis does strike - the price correction will be biblical. There is no way that there will not be a correction but the key is just when. At this point where we stand - we have no idea when.

Buy if you need a place to stay or if you can get a place at a good price.
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Old 06-07-2019, 08:04 PM   #1283
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No problem. I believe your idea of time of entry is similar to mine, so we are actually looking at the data from an arms length. You notice I am only replying to you as I wanted to exchange notes with you.

I was also surprised by the increase in price. However, must also look at the volume of transaction and percentage of transaction of new launch versus resale.

Some Analysts say this is a dampening effect, meaning last quarter minus 1%, this quarter plus 1 %, next quarter 0 or minus again. But not deviate by the band of plus minus 1 to 2%.
Bro, you are pretty sharp that our idea of time entry is rather similar. Apart buying for self stay, from investment point of view, you probably would have noticed that those who are long enough in property have already quit buying anything during this period of time. If u recall from my previous posts, all my funds have already been transferred to other areas.
Sometimes, patient is a virtue and you will be handsomely rewarded if one enters at the right time.

Recently, I randomly take a peep at some data and like you, am surprised to see there’s still some buying activities going on and price remains resilient. Florence residence for example, seems to come back to life again.
I am unable to retrieve data to have a better understanding of the buyers’ profile. Are they HDB upgraders? Are they buying as a second property for investment? Or are they buying after they had decoupled or sold their previous property? Or singles buying for self stay after moving out from parents?

All these may point to us whether there’s a genuine demand or it’s just herd mentality.
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Old 06-07-2019, 08:19 PM   #1284
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Allow me to chip in here as I’ve just bought another place at a 2016 price.

I believe we are in unchartered territory - the years of QE: Low interest rates and money printing has led to 11 years of asset price inflation.

What will happen to the property market in the next 5 years? Honestly it is anyone’s Guess. I used to be more sure but now I realise this economic cycle is very different from the previous ones. Governments will not allow their economies to correct and instead will hold interest rates Low and money supply high. We could be seeing a persistently long period of high prices.

This means that the prudent people who believe in spending within your means will suffer during this period of time.

Also the future generations will suffer because there has been no real economic growth - just inflation of asset prices.

However, also because of the large amounts of debt being held and the price rises- when a crisis does strike - the price correction will be biblical. There is no way that there will not be a correction but the key is just when. At this point where we stand - we have no idea when.

Buy if you need a place to stay or if you can get a place at a good price.
A very insightful sharing.
Bro, your enter timing was rather spot on.

For my case, my exit plan was in 2018 (5 months before the CM). Recently, I noticed that my neighbour was transacting 300k lower than what I had sold in 2018.

Can really see some dampening effect has already putting a toll on resale price due to so many new launches in the pipeline. It is the new launch that keeps the price resilient.

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Old 06-07-2019, 09:18 PM   #1285
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that whole stretch of hdb blocks from 401 to 408 or 9... i walked home from school everyday during primary sch days... the current nan hua high school and casa clementi hdb plots were still a hilly forest with "haunted house" (i think actually some vet) lol...

i stayed in clementi central for 25yrs. nowadays i go back to clementi area 2-3 times a year... was there last week... looked at my old house which is now a soon to be completed ~40storey hdb... so nostalgic... but at the same time i see the whole clementi area from ave 1 to 6... so many skyscraper hdbs now... but still with the same roads... now ask me stay there, don't think i would want.
The hilly forest had a ww 2 unexploded bomb. I still remember lol
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:14 PM   #1286
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Another Newly TOP project.. Kingsford Waterbay. Annualised % one bedder is still better.
We can’t just concur and say that 1 bedder are a sure lose.

1 bedder


2 bedder
Bro, u keep justifying yr shoebox at Woodlands is a good buy, u not tired meh...
Buy liao no need care what others think or feel 1...Unless u r not confident of yr decision and need others support to justify yr choice
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Old 06-07-2019, 10:31 PM   #1287
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Can quote where did i talk about Woodlands?

Bro, u keep justifying yr shoebox at Woodlands is a good buy, u not tired meh...
Buy liao no need care what others think or feel 1...Unless u r not confident of yr decision and need others support to justify yr choice
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Old 06-07-2019, 11:33 PM   #1288
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Bro, u keep justifying yr shoebox at Woodlands is a good buy, u not tired meh...
Buy liao no need care what others think or feel 1...Unless u r not confident of yr decision and need others support to justify yr choice
He’s probably just trying to illustrate not all 2 bedder are always more profitable than 1 bedder.
And he is not wrong because I recalled my 1 bedder sold at 200k profit immediately after TOP.
It really depends on location and your entry price.
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Old 07-07-2019, 07:28 AM   #1289
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Allow me to chip in here as I’ve just bought another place at a 2016 price.

I believe we are in unchartered territory - the years of QE: Low interest rates and money printing has led to 11 years of asset price inflation.

What will happen to the property market in the next 5 years? Honestly it is anyone’s Guess. I used to be more sure but now I realise this economic cycle is very different from the previous ones. Governments will not allow their economies to correct and instead will hold interest rates Low and money supply high. We could be seeing a persistently long period of high prices.

This means that the prudent people who believe in spending within your means will suffer during this period of time.

Also the future generations will suffer because there has been no real economic growth - just inflation of asset prices.

However, also because of the large amounts of debt being held and the price rises- when a crisis does strike - the price correction will be biblical. There is no way that there will not be a correction but the key is just when. At this point where we stand - we have no idea when.

Buy if you need a place to stay or if you can get a place at a good price.
Knew of someone who lost 100k on a resale HDB flat in Marine Parade which was bought at 400k. And they had to wait for more than a year to find a buyer. To lose 100k from a HDB flat is biblical enough. That is a 25% loss.

Have seen also 2 bedder condo making a 100k loss.

There are however, some who can afford such losses or situations allowing for such losses.
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Old 07-07-2019, 07:46 AM   #1290
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Cooling measure , One year on

https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prop...housing-market
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