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celtosaxon 12-10-2019 11:07 PM

Agree, Japan in an interesting case, one of the greatest bull markets with a 6x rise in the 1980’s, followed by the longest (3 decades now) bear market, the longest suffered by any major market in the world. Could the US suffer a similar fate after the amazing 2009-2019 bull market? Does being more globally diversified really protect one from such a fate? It certainly didn’t offer much if any protection during the drop in 2008.

Taking such risks into consideration can certainly make one appreciate the value of guaranteed income from things like CPF.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrostWurm (Post 123199315)
Before you even start talking about trends, you must accept you are forming your argument with the benefit of hindsight. It is not easy to accept this, but it is important that we do.

Imagine that now is the middle of 1989, and you look at the charts, you would have concluded that Japan was the best performer in the world. In the years right before the crash, there were even widespread speculations that Japan was on track to overtake the US. Clearly that didn't happen, but one certainly would have felt that way in the 1980s.


peipei1 12-10-2019 11:33 PM

Interesting discussion about which market to focus on! I feel US will still be strong for next 20 years where most of our investment horizon will be. China may overtake US but not soon unless they free up creativity and entrepreneurship from the state. US will only decline if some civil war or world war damage their infrastructure.

I think we can focus more on US etf, even the global etf is made up of US stocks up to 65%. What happens if US companies decline, will our iwda decline or kick out some US stocks and add better exUS ones to maintain our price?

FrostWurm 13-10-2019 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by celtosaxon (Post 123200209)
Taking such risks into consideration can certainly make one appreciate the value of guaranteed income from things like CPF.

Off-topic:

The future is scary though and no one knows what it will really be like (captain obvious here).

I got a feeling that most of us would be out of a job way before the time that we can collect our CPF. 30 to 40 years in the future is a very long time, and technology is developing at an accelerating pace.

Just 30 years ago we couldn't even use the internet without having a landline. Now, we can even buy stocks on our mobile phones. Similarly, everyone was using 1.44MB floppy disks that could only hold one powerpoint presentation. Now you can just get everything from the cloud.

What the world will be like 30 to 40 years from now is anyone's guess, but I doubt it will be promising. AI is going to wipe out a lot of jobs, and all the money (and capital assets) will be concentrated in the hands of a few.

I can only hope our country is one of those few; whether the CPF still makes sense by then would depend on this.

sgbsgb 13-10-2019 11:35 AM

Hi BBC, i understand you recommend corp/crpa as a bond for USD denominated. I look through it and the bond contain mostly of BBB rated followed by A rated funds. How would corp/crpa be affected in a downturn as compare to ishares US treasury bond ib01/ibta which contain 100% AAA rated funds?
I am looking to invest on USD denominated bonds in time to come and would greatly appreciate your advice on this topic. Thank you sir.

BBCWatcher 13-10-2019 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgbsgb (Post 123204647)
Hi BBC, i understand you recommend corp/crpa as a bond for USD denominated.

CRPA and CORP are merely quoted in U.S. dollars. They hold bonds denominated in multiple currencies. And I don’t often recommend CRPA except in particular circumstances.

Quote:

I look through it and the bond contain mostly of BBB rated followed by A rated funds. How would corp/crpa be affected in a downturn as compare to ishares US treasury bond ib01/ibta which contain 100% AAA rated funds?
No, that’s not correct. U.S. Treasuries are not AAA rated, at least not by every bond rating agency. However, they are the very safest U.S. dollar denominated bonds.

The answer is it depends on the nature of the “downturn.”

Quote:

I am looking to invest on USD denominated bonds in time to come and would greatly appreciate your advice on this topic.
Then CRPA/CORP is not for you. LQDA or SDIA might be since those are investment grade U.S. dollar denominated corporate bond funds.

sgbsgb 13-10-2019 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBCWatcher (Post 123205913)
CRPA and CORP are merely quoted in U.S. dollars. They hold bonds denominated in multiple currencies. And I don’t often recommend CRPA except in particular circumstances.


No, that’s not correct. U.S. Treasuries are not AAA rated, at least not by every bond rating agency. However, they are the very safest U.S. dollar denominated bonds.

The answer is it depends on the nature of the “downturn.”


Then CRPA/CORP is not for you. LQDA or SDIA might be since those are investment grade U.S. dollar denominated corporate bond funds.

Thank you sir

remoir 13-10-2019 01:53 PM

Hi I am interested to know how to calculate the final dividend that would be distributed to SG shareholders for distributing (USD) Irish domiciled etf. Would the expense ratio be considered in the distribution? Or would it be 85% of the dividend declared that would be distributed to SG shareholders?

BBCWatcher 13-10-2019 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by remoir (Post 123206438)
Hi I am interested to know how to calculate the final dividend that would be distributed to SG shareholders for distributing (USD) Irish domiciled etf. Would the expense ratio be considered in the distribution? Or would it be 85% of the dividend declared that would be distributed to SG shareholders?

First of all, all shareholders count, not only those who happen to be living in Singapore.

OK, that said, just check the fund’s prospectus to find out how the fund managers collect their fees since it’ll depend on the fund. But I don’t think it matters much.

sgbsgb 13-10-2019 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBCWatcher (Post 123205913)
CRPA and CORP are merely quoted in U.S. dollars. They hold bonds denominated in multiple currencies. And I don’t often recommend CRPA except in particular circumstances.


No, that’s not correct. U.S. Treasuries are not AAA rated, at least not by every bond rating agency. However, they are the very safest U.S. dollar denominated bonds.

The answer is it depends on the nature of the “downturn.”


Then CRPA/CORP is not for you. LQDA or SDIA might be since those are investment grade U.S. dollar denominated corporate bond funds.

Sir, may i ask why the preference on lqda/sdia over ib01/ibta since you said US treasury is the safest usd denominated bond?

BBCWatcher 13-10-2019 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgbsgb (Post 123207003)
Sir, may i ask why the preference on lqda/sdia over ib01/ibta since you said US treasury is the safest usd denominated bond?

Where did I express a preference?

Okenba 13-10-2019 07:15 PM

Hullo. New to investing and starting rather late at 40yo. Have been doing some read up on my own and would like to state my plan for others to critique and comment on, and some questions at the end.

I intend to invest both via SRS and cash, but am essentially thinking of investing in the same thing: A Ireland domiciled Global ETF. Likely the VWRA.

I have read about the 3 stock portfolio, but am not keen on bonds as I feel that CPF already serves the function, and not too keen on local stock either as all my other assets and my job is local. So I just thought I'd buy into a single global ETF to make things simple. Comments are welcome.

The main question I have now (besides critique of the plan), is about which brokerage to use for SRS and cash, and how to DCA into it.
I have heard that IB is cheapest, but Lite isn't in SG yet, so not sure how viable it is. Also, I don't think I can invest SRS through IB.
For SRS, I've already opened a Vickers account with DBS, but am open to other ideas...

Thanks in advance!

BBCWatcher 13-10-2019 07:23 PM

What will be your initial monthly savings amount, Okenba?

weng0202 13-10-2019 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Okenba (Post 123210690)
Hullo. New to investing and starting rather late at 40yo. Have been doing some read up on my own and would like to state my plan for others to critique and comment on, and some questions at the end.

I intend to invest both via SRS and cash, but am essentially thinking of investing in the same thing: A Ireland domiciled Global ETF. Likely the VWRA.

I have read about the 3 stock portfolio, but am not keen on bonds as I feel that CPF already serves the function, and not too keen on local stock either as all my other assets and my job is local. So I just thought I'd buy into a single global ETF to make things simple. Comments are welcome.

The main question I have now (besides critique of the plan), is about which brokerage to use for SRS and cash, and how to DCA into it.
I have heard that IB is cheapest, but Lite isn't in SG yet, so not sure how viable it is. Also, I don't think I can invest SRS through IB.
For SRS, I've already opened a Vickers account with DBS, but am open to other ideas...

Thanks in advance!

SRS can only buy local stocks if I didn't remember wrongly. So you have to use the SRS for something else.

sgbsgb 13-10-2019 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBCWatcher (Post 123210314)
Where did I express a preference?

I am sorry, my bad. So is it alright to pick the US treasury instead of sdia?

BBCWatcher 13-10-2019 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgbsgb (Post 123210845)
So is it alright to pick the US treasury instead of sdia?

What are you trying to accomplish?


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