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Old 14-08-2018, 01:47 PM   #481
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Higher for Basic Plan, lower for Escalating Plan, because Basic Plan earns 4%+2% pa interest but escalating plan does not.
No, that's not why. Interest is always factored into all premium accumulations and payout plans. CPF's internal accounting is only mildly interesting, but that's not one of the differences. The Lifelong Income Fund invests in the exact same SSGSes as MA/SA/RA.
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Old 14-08-2018, 01:58 PM   #482
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No, that's not why. Interest is always factored into all premium accumulations and payout plans. CPF's internal accounting is only mildly interesting, but that's not one of the differences. The Lifelong Income Fund invests in the exact same SSGSes as MA/SA/RA.
Then u dun know what u are missing? I intentionly wrote "refund of CPF Life Premium" which has a wider meaning.

What do u think account for the difference in refund value?
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Old 14-08-2018, 02:25 PM   #483
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What do u think account for the difference in refund value?
Easy: The Basic Plan offers lower (real) monthly lifetime (actuarial) payouts. The Basic Plan tries a bit harder to defend (but still doesn't guarantee) a residual than the other two payout plans (Standard and Escalating), that's all. It's quite simple, really.

And it's not a "refund value," by the way -- I wouldn't call it that. There's no refund. It's just a residual, and in all CPF LIFE payout plans the residual falls to zero if you merely live long enough. Which is why I call it, correctly, a "bequest lottery," which is a very strange lottery to play.
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Old 14-08-2018, 02:35 PM   #484
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Easy: The Basic Plan offers lower (real) monthly lifetime (actuarial) payouts. The Basic Plan tries a bit harder to defend (but still doesn't guarantee) a residual than the other two payout plans (Standard and Escalating), that's all. It's quite simple, really.

And it's not a "refund value," by the way -- I wouldn't call it that. There's no refund. It's just a residual, and in all CPF LIFE payout plans the residual falls to zero if you merely live long enough. Which is why I call it, correctly, a "bequest lottery," which is a very strange lottery to play.
U failed your maths badly! as I expected

Refund of CPF Life "Premiums" if u exit earlier than "expected"! I am talking about that difference!

If u dunno what accounts for the difference in Bequest Amt in all the 3 plans, ie Basic , Standard and Escalating Plans, u failed to understand how CPF Life works for Singaporeans!

Last edited by maple96; 14-08-2018 at 02:40 PM..
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Old 14-08-2018, 02:36 PM   #485
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Like that all 3 plans are like bequest lottery. The residual value is zero IF you live long enough, which is 81 for SP, 82 for EP and 92 for BP. If you live less than those age, you lose. Even if you live to 95, you still lose compared to the earlier scheme. Many will lose than gain in the bet to live longer than 90
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Old 14-08-2018, 02:58 PM   #486
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I have literally no idea what you two are talking about. Please go find some other thread where you can complain about CPF LIFE if that's your thing.
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Old 14-08-2018, 03:40 PM   #487
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I have literally no idea what you two are talking about. Please go find some other thread where you can complain about CPF LIFE if that's your thing.
Of course you don't cause you only can see one side
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Old 14-08-2018, 05:40 PM   #488
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Let's Talk Turkey

Some speculators (not investors) might be wondering whether now is a good time to speculate on Turkish stocks, Turkish bonds, and/or the Turkish lira (currency). Turkey is in the midst of some serious economic turmoil, including most recently new U.S. tariffs ostensibly because the Trump Administration is upset with Turkey's detention of Andrew Brunson, an evangelical Christian pastor who the Turkish government believes played a role in the coup attempt. (The U.S government does not agree.)

Lira inflation is running rather high (~15% at last report), and a substantial fraction of Turkish corporate debt is denominated in foreign currencies. With the lira depreciating so rapidly against major world currencies, that debt load is becoming all the more costly to service for those borrowers. Some banks, particularly in Europe, have material exposure to Turkish borrowers who are now at greater risk of default.

One of the concerns I have, even if you want to gamble in some way on Turkish stocks, bonds, and/or currency, is that the Turkish government could impose capital controls, adjust taxes, or raise some other serious impediment to your profiting from the economic turmoil.

However, I do have one recommendation: give Turkey some consideration as your next vacation destination. With the devaluation of the Turkish lira, Turkey is that much more affordable as a vacation destination. Both Singapore Airlines and Turkish Airlines fly nonstop from Singapore Changi Airport to Istanbul, and from there you can explore Turkish culture, cuisine, and antiquities. And, if you want to bring back some Turkish apricots, rugs, or other products priced in Turkish lira, there are some bargains available. Just keep an eye on the safety and security situation in Turkey, but at least for now it's a relatively safe country to visit.
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Old 14-08-2018, 05:51 PM   #489
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U failed your maths badly! as I expected

Refund of CPF Life "Premiums" if u exit earlier than "expected"! I am talking about that difference!

If u dunno what accounts for the difference in Bequest Amt in all the 3 plans, ie Basic , Standard and Escalating Plans, u failed to understand how CPF Life works for Singaporeans!
Hi Maple96,

Could you please elaborate. I don't quite understand what you and henrybhl mean. Do u mean that since all three plans are "bequest lottery", we might as well bet on the one that offers a potentially higher bequest?
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Old 14-08-2018, 05:58 PM   #490
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Could you please elaborate.
Let's not. Please go take this CPF "discussion" to any number of dedicated CPF threads, including this one.
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Old 14-08-2018, 06:02 PM   #491
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I was tinkering with the idea of buying a bit of the IDTK, the Turkey MSCI ETF listed on LSE. It went back up 6% today (as I am typing this) after falling double digits for consecutive days. However I agree this is really akin to gambling as there is no idea to anticipate when the rout will abate. The outflow caused the AUM to fall below USD200MM last Friday and a concern I had was whether a rush to exit might give rise to liquidity concerns.

One question: how would capital controls hurt the ETF? Malaysia imposed capital controls during the AFC, and that was ultimately seen as beneficial to its stock market and economy.

Some speculators (not investors) might be wondering whether now is a good time to speculate on Turkish stocks, Turkish bonds, and/or the Turkish lira (currency). Turkey is in the midst of some serious economic turmoil, including most recently new U.S. tariffs ostensibly because the Trump Administration is upset with Turkey's detention of Andrew Brunson, an evangelical Christian pastor who the Turkish government believes played a role in the coup attempt. (The U.S government does not agree.)

Lira inflation is running rather high (~15% at last report), and a substantial fraction of Turkish corporate debt is denominated in foreign currencies. With the lira depreciating so rapidly against major world currencies, that debt load is becoming all the more costly to service for those borrowers. Some banks, particularly in Europe, have material exposure to Turkish borrowers who are now at greater risk of default.

One of the concerns I have, even if you want to gamble in some way on Turkish stocks, bonds, and/or currency, is that the Turkish government could impose capital controls, adjust taxes, or raise some other serious impediment to your profiting from the
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Old 14-08-2018, 07:53 PM   #492
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Some speculators (not investors) might be wondering whether now is a good time to speculate on Turkish stocks, Turkish bonds, and/or the Turkish lira (currency). Turkey is in the midst of some serious economic turmoil, including most recently new U.S. tariffs ostensibly because the Trump Administration is upset with Turkey's detention of Andrew Brunson, an evangelical Christian pastor who the Turkish government believes played a role in the coup attempt. (The U.S government does not agree.)

Lira inflation is running rather high (~15% at last report), and a substantial fraction of Turkish corporate debt is denominated in foreign currencies. With the lira depreciating so rapidly against major world currencies, that debt load is becoming all the more costly to service for those borrowers. Some banks, particularly in Europe, have material exposure to Turkish borrowers who are now at greater risk of default.

One of the concerns I have, even if you want to gamble in some way on Turkish stocks, bonds, and/or currency, is that the Turkish government could impose capital controls, adjust taxes, or raise some other serious impediment to your profiting from the economic turmoil.

However, I do have one recommendation: give Turkey some consideration as your next vacation destination. With the devaluation of the Turkish lira, Turkey is that much more affordable as a vacation destination. Both Singapore Airlines and Turkish Airlines fly nonstop from Singapore Changi Airport to Istanbul, and from there you can explore Turkish culture, cuisine, and antiquities. And, if you want to bring back some Turkish apricots, rugs, or other products priced in Turkish lira, there are some bargains available. Just keep an eye on the safety and security situation in Turkey, but at least for now it's a relatively safe country to visit.
When I started reading your post, for once, I thought, you are going to make a sector/country bet recommendation, but alas, no

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Old 14-08-2018, 08:02 PM   #493
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One question: how would capital controls hurt the ETF?
That's pretty easy to imagine, actually. One possible way is that the Turkish government simply declares foreign owned shares to be null and void, or frozen/non-tradeable in some way.

When I started reading your post, for once, I thought, you are going to make a sector/country bet recommendation, but alas, no
I am: take a vacation in Turkey.
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Old 14-08-2018, 11:08 PM   #494
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....Or vacation and shop in India, since the Indian rupee is quite weak now, too.
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Old 14-08-2018, 11:46 PM   #495
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....Or vacation and shop in India, since the Indian rupee is quite weak now, too.
Indian rupee hasn't slided fast like Turkish Lira. Indian Rupee fall is just natural and gradual, considering the high yield on it and the growth and inflation. So prices won't be a lot cheaper than a year ago. Inflation is 5% and the currency has fallen about 7% Vs the SGD and Indian bonds yield about 8%.

I don't understand why Indian rupee is making the news in Bloomberg. It is not at all like Turkey or South Africa. Yes, it has fallen to its life low to USD, but if you look carefully, this life low was almost reached during the taper tantrum 4 years ago, so the fact that it has taken 4 years and to get there and the yield differential collected during that time, means it is a very strong currency.

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Last edited by revhappy; 15-08-2018 at 12:00 AM..
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