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Old 24-04-2019, 08:42 PM   #1171
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Hi BBCW, what are your views on the better ways to bet that market hasnít fully priced in the recession ? Would be interested to have your thoughts
I donít recommend you do this, but Iíll answer the question.

There are government bond plays, yes, but the options and futures markets offer more powerful pro-recessionary bets atop the bonds. You could short sell stocks that do poorly in recessions or go long on stocks that do well. In this last category some likely, random examples include Walmart, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Yum! Brands (Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut), Del Taco, Dennyís, beer companies (particularly companies selling cheap beer), and the really budget-oriented food companies (example: B&G Foods, which makes B&M baked beans and Underwood canned meat).
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Old 24-04-2019, 08:48 PM   #1172
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Thank you for replying. I am interested in a distributing fund because I am planning to FIRE and am thinking of ways to increase passive income, besides relying on REITS dividends. Are there any distributing fund you know of with stable income?

Check the prospectus, but I think you're OK in that respect.

VDTY is a distributing fund. If you prefer an accumulating fund that holds similar maturity U.S. Treasuries, take a look at CBU0 (Blackrock iShares). The expense ratio is slightly higher (0.20% versus 0.12%), but you avoid broker commissions if you're reinvesting dividends. And VDTY distributes dividends monthly, so there are a lot of dividends to reinvest. Both VDTY and CBU0 are relatively small funds, so trading volumes will be low. However, CBU0 is bigger, so it should have narrower bid-ask spreads and be somewhat less dependent on the market makers.

Why do you want VDTY, though? If you're betting on a U.S. recession that market consensus hasn't already priced in fully, there might be some better ways to place such a bet.
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Old 24-04-2019, 09:13 PM   #1173
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I am interested in a distributing fund because I am planning to FIRE and am thinking of ways to increase passive income, besides relying on REITS dividends.
That’s not a requirement, really. Just sell some shares every calendar quarter, and you’ve got your distribution. And if you’re doing that at a very safe withdrawal rate, no problem.

Yes, I know, there are thousands of people running around shouting the words “passive income,” as if it’s some magical spell, for every one person who asks “Don’t total returns net of costs matter?”

There are some multi-billionaires who have little or no passive income. You know what some of them do? Borrow, using a tiny fraction of their wealth as collateral. Then they refinance, borrowing more. Loop, repeat. And you know why they do that? Because they end up paying little or no tax, and interest rates on secured loans are low. No passive income — imagine that.

Are there any distributing fund you know of with stable income?
Well, OK, answering your question, you could take a look at so-called “equity income” funds. WQDV traded in London is such an example. Also, the classic “grandmother” approach was to buy the stocks of regulated utilities, and to some extent that’s still possible via IUUS, especially if you don’t mind your electric utilities generating U.S. dollars specifically. But that’s an accumulating fund, and evidently you don’t like those.

Last edited by BBCWatcher; 24-04-2019 at 09:15 PM..
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Old 26-04-2019, 08:32 AM   #1174
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As reported previously, I have the happy problem of cash piling up, so starting from December, 2018, I bumped my monthly flow into investments (with no change to investment allocations) by about 8% to a new, higher flow rate. Fortunately, Iíve never had to skip a month or to reduce the flow rate, which is just how I like it/planned it. Whenever I make a change like this I expect it to be sustainable, and it has been. If cash continues to pile up, Iíll raise this monthly flow rate again.
....And I've decided to do exactly that. I'm bumping the monthly flow up again, same increment.
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Old 26-04-2019, 01:07 PM   #1175
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....And I've decided to do exactly that. I'm bumping the monthly flow up again, same increment.
could you share what's your portfolio allocation like?

what do you mean by increasing monthly flow? without this increased flow to vesting, you have left it in just cash ?
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Old 26-04-2019, 01:55 PM   #1176
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could you share what's your portfolio allocation like?
Low cost stock and bond index funds, well diversified, with minor percentages in property, a few individual stocks, a few directly held government bonds and bond-likes, and (of course) bank deposits. Age, risk, and U.S. tax appropriate, with almost no manual effort required.

It's pretty simple, but it could be simpler, with fewer elements. I expect I can simplify things a bit within the next few months.

what do you mean by increasing monthly flow? without this increased flow to vesting, you have left it in just cash ?
Increasing the monthly amount used to purchase the stock index funds, in particular. When I feel there's a new, higher flow level that I can sustain for years to come, and to avoid too much cash accumulating (a happy problem, but a problem), I raise the monthly investment flow amount. Fortunately I've never missed a month and have never reduced the amount.

Some of the monthly flow is allocated to investment gifts. I believe in being generous sooner rather than later.
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Old 26-04-2019, 02:06 PM   #1177
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Low cost stock and bond index funds, well diversified, with minor percentages in property, a few individual stocks, a few directly held government bonds and bond-likes, and (of course) bank deposits. Age, risk, and U.S. tax appropriate, with almost no manual effort required.

It's pretty simple, but it could be simpler, with fewer elements. I expect I can simplify things a bit within the next few months.


Increasing the monthly amount used to purchase the stock index funds, in particular. When I feel there's a new, higher flow level that I can sustain for years to come, and to avoid too much cash accumulating (a happy problem, but a problem), I raise the monthly investment flow amount. Fortunately I've never missed a month and have never reduced the amount.

Some of the monthly flow is allocated to investment gifts. I believe in being generous sooner rather than later.
investment gifts?

what's the usage of bank deposits?
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Old 26-04-2019, 04:51 PM   #1178
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investment gifts?
Sure. Gifts to others in the form of mutually agreed investment accounts, and in appropriate, compliant ways.

what's the usage of bank deposits?
I do like to eat, and I pay the electric bill every month, as examples. One needs a little money on account for day to day expenses.
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Old 26-04-2019, 05:00 PM   #1179
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Sure. Gifts to others in the form of mutually agreed investment accounts, and in appropriate, compliant ways.


I do like to eat, and I pay the electric bill every month, as examples. One needs a little money on account for day to day expenses.
haha of course. I was wondering if these were fixed deposits of certain tenor. ok get you.
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Old 26-04-2019, 05:47 PM   #1180
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Where did BBC get the extra money pile from?
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Old 30-04-2019, 06:36 PM   #1181
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SGX: The Incredible Shrinking Stock Market?

I remain concerned that the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) continues to shrink, and I think our local exchange's shrinkage ought to be taken into account when making investment decisions. It's hard for me to imagine this trend halting or reversing.

As recent examples, the joint venture between Keppel Corporation and Singapore Press Holdings bought out M1, Singapore's third largest telco. Consequently M1 has delisted. Courts Asia, the electronics retailer, was recently acquired and its stock will evidently be delisted this week (May 3, 2019). That's two local household names gone in 2019, and we're not even halfway through the year yet.

The SGX's trading volumes have been cut in half in the past decade. Companies looking to go public to raise capital simply head elsewhere, such as New York and Hong Kong. Many of the world's most valuable companies are rather new. Facebook, for example, didn't even exist until 2004 (2003 if you stretch the definition of "exist"), and it's now the world's 5th most valuable publicly traded company as I write this. IPOs are quite important to keep your stock investment portfolio contemporary, to keep the stock index fund that you're holding relevant to local, regional, and global commerce.

Do you agree the SGX's shrinkage is a problem for investors planning to retire in Singapore? Do you have any suggestions how to cope with what's happening? Are you taking this phenomenon into account in your own investing? If so, how so?
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Old 30-04-2019, 07:00 PM   #1182
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I remain concerned that the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) continues to shrink, and I think our local exchange's shrinkage ought to be taken into account when making investment decisions. It's hard for me to imagine this trend halting or reversing.

As recent examples, the joint venture between Keppel Corporation and Singapore Press Holdings bought out M1, Singapore's third largest telco. Consequently M1 has delisted. Courts Asia, the electronics retailer, was recently acquired and its stock will evidently be delisted this week (May 3, 2019). That's two local household names gone in 2019, and we're not even halfway through the year yet.

The SGX's trading volumes have been cut in half in the past decade. Companies looking to go public to raise capital simply head elsewhere, such as New York and Hong Kong. Many of the world's most valuable companies are rather new. Facebook, for example, didn't even exist until 2004 (2003 if you stretch the definition of "exist"), and it's now the world's 5th most valuable publicly traded company as I write this. IPOs are quite important to keep your stock investment portfolio contemporary, to keep the stock index fund that you're holding relevant to local, regional, and global commerce.

Do you agree the SGX's shrinkage is a problem for investors planning to retire in Singapore? Do you have any suggestions how to cope with what's happening? Are you taking this phenomenon into account in your own investing? If so, how so?
Buy SP500 etf and World etf. You are already working in SG. If SG do well, US will do well. Converse is not necessarily true.

Last edited by Trader11; 30-04-2019 at 07:02 PM..
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Old 30-04-2019, 07:38 PM   #1183
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Buy SP500 etf and World etf. You are already working in SG. If SG do well, US will do well. Converse is not necessarily true.
Is there a typo? Do you mean if US do well, SG will do well? SG is an ant. US is a giant. Giant will have greater influence on who will do well. An ant can die and the impact is lesser than when the giant falls sick.

Last edited by klarklar; 30-04-2019 at 07:43 PM..
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Old 30-04-2019, 07:42 PM   #1184
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This is what I think SGX should do to compete with other exchanges;

- Give out market data free of charge
- provide fundamental data in XML or json format free of charge for easy analysis
- cut trading fees
- do more to facilitate electronic bond trading. Other exchanges are not so strong in this area.
Singapore has an aging population and a conservative group of investors who are obsessed with income investing and yield. Bonds should appeal to them. Hard to attract tech stocks because the conservative folks here don't have the courage like Americans to buy tech stocks that incur losses in the early years. Amazon will probably not be a hot stock if it IPO in Singapore.
- lower IPO fees for companies
- lower annual listing fees for companies
- have bi-annual reporting of financial results instead of quarterly reports. HKSE has bi-annual reporting. No problem.

I remain concerned that the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) continues to shrink, and I think our local exchange's shrinkage ought to be taken into account when making investment decisions. It's hard for me to imagine this trend halting or reversing.

As recent examples, the joint venture between Keppel Corporation and Singapore Press Holdings bought out M1, Singapore's third largest telco. Consequently M1 has delisted. Courts Asia, the electronics retailer, was recently acquired and its stock will evidently be delisted this week (May 3, 2019). That's two local household names gone in 2019, and we're not even halfway through the year yet.

The SGX's trading volumes have been cut in half in the past decade. Companies looking to go public to raise capital simply head elsewhere, such as New York and Hong Kong. Many of the world's most valuable companies are rather new. Facebook, for example, didn't even exist until 2004 (2003 if you stretch the definition of "exist"), and it's now the world's 5th most valuable publicly traded company as I write this. IPOs are quite important to keep your stock investment portfolio contemporary, to keep the stock index fund that you're holding relevant to local, regional, and global commerce.

Do you agree the SGX's shrinkage is a problem for investors planning to retire in Singapore? Do you have any suggestions how to cope with what's happening? Are you taking this phenomenon into account in your own investing? If so, how so?

Last edited by klarklar; 30-04-2019 at 08:16 PM..
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Old 30-04-2019, 08:13 PM   #1185
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I remain concerned that the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) continues to shrink, and I think our local exchange's shrinkage ought to be taken into account when making investment decisions. It's hard for me to imagine this trend halting or reversing.

As recent examples, the joint venture between Keppel Corporation and Singapore Press Holdings bought out M1, Singapore's third largest telco. Consequently M1 has delisted. Courts Asia, the electronics retailer, was recently acquired and its stock will evidently be delisted this week (May 3, 2019). That's two local household names gone in 2019, and we're not even halfway through the year yet.

The SGX's trading volumes have been cut in half in the past decade. Companies looking to go public to raise capital simply head elsewhere, such as New York and Hong Kong. Many of the world's most valuable companies are rather new. Facebook, for example, didn't even exist until 2004 (2003 if you stretch the definition of "exist"), and it's now the world's 5th most valuable publicly traded company as I write this. IPOs are quite important to keep your stock investment portfolio contemporary, to keep the stock index fund that you're holding relevant to local, regional, and global commerce.

Do you agree the SGX's shrinkage is a problem for investors planning to retire in Singapore? Do you have any suggestions how to cope with what's happening? Are you taking this phenomenon into account in your own investing? If so, how so?
Simple, buy MSCI World Index ETF as equity allocation, and we can ignore the tiny red dot in the globe. Bond component, we can buy MBH and do OA to SA transfer and top up CPF on a yearly basis. That's all.
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