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Old 14-05-2019, 04:55 PM   #1231
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I notice you've omitted OA. Slightly concerning and something to keep in mind.
OA is currently yielding 2.5% (floor rate), and it's pegged to a bank deposit interest rate formula. When inflation is running below the floor rate, as now, OA runs ahead of inflation. But it's not designed to do that. I expect OA will approximately pace inflation.

Regarding the Diversity Visa Lottery, it's not gonna be around much longer if Messieurs Trump and Miller have their way!
Well, even when the Republican Party recently controlled the House, the Senate, and the White House -- through 2018, actually -- the Diversity Visa Lottery survived. DV-2021 is quite safe, I'd say.

There's an awful lot of fodder for the rubes involved in U.S. immigration politics. Follow the money, and that pretty quickly becomes clear. For example, if the current White House would really, genuinely like to reduce further the already low levels of unauthorized immigration, that's easy: (a) boost the funding for E-Verify, including for appeals and correction processes; (b) require all employers -- even somebody hiring a gardener for two hours -- to use E-Verify before paying anybody for work; (c) aim almost all enforcement firepower directly at employers who violate (b), with stiff penalties.

But no, too many employers like the current arrangement just fine. Desperate, poorly paid, compliant workers (often well deserving of asylum) -- including at the Trump Organization's hotels, resorts, and buildings -- are great. The more desperate and compliant -- the more terror they feel -- the better.

Unfortunately we live in a world where too often too many believe in and practice exploiting the most vulnerable and desperate among us. And sometimes that's even popular, or at least popular enough.
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Old 15-05-2019, 04:09 PM   #1232
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Many places don't seem especially welcoming to immigrants at the moment, dependent on melanin levels. Newer iteration of an old problem?

Plus ça change

Going back to investment, ES3 or skip that bit and go right to IWDA?
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Old 15-05-2019, 04:55 PM   #1233
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Going back to investment, ES3 or skip that bit and go right to IWDA?
Where are you expecting to retire?
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Old 15-05-2019, 07:00 PM   #1234
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Where are you expecting to retire?
Probably Singapore.
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Old 15-05-2019, 07:53 PM   #1235
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Going back to investment, ES3 or skip that bit and go right to IWDA?
Probably Singapore.
Then a little ES3 is OK with me.
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Old 15-05-2019, 09:28 PM   #1236
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There's an awful lot of fodder for the rubes involved in U.S. immigration politics. Follow the money, and that pretty quickly becomes clear. For example, if the current White House would really, genuinely like to reduce further the already low levels of unauthorized immigration, that's easy: (a) boost the funding for E-Verify, including for appeals and correction processes; (b) require all employers -- even somebody hiring a gardener for two hours -- to use E-Verify before paying anybody for work; (c) aim almost all enforcement firepower directly at employers who violate (b), with stiff penalties.

But no, too many employers like the current arrangement just fine. Desperate, poorly paid, compliant workers (often well deserving of asylum) -- including at the Trump Organization's hotels, resorts, and buildings -- are great. The more desperate and compliant -- the more terror they feel -- the better.

Unfortunately we live in a world where too often too many believe in and practice exploiting the most vulnerable and desperate among us. And sometimes that's even popular, or at least popular enough.
E-verify will only solve one half of the problem and i agree mandatory E-verify is necessary. Strong enforcement of immigration laws (which is happening now at least) is another.

"Unauthorized", actually illegal immigration is not at low levels, unless you are referring to rate of illegal crossings. The number of illegals is far from a trivial number. As for asylum, i think you can read the statistics of asylum approval rates (irrespective of administration) to decide for yourself how many are well deserving of asylum. Most are, face it, simply economic immigrants.

Also, don't forget the millions of non-citizens who are also technically illegal but action on them has simply been "deferred" under a program which has been judged unconstitutional and will likely be cancelled by the Supreme Court.
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Old 15-05-2019, 10:07 PM   #1237
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E-verify will only solve one half of the problem.... Most are, face it, simply economic immigrants.
There’s much to disagree with, but I’d just like to highlight how this combination doesn’t make sense. There are no economic migrants when there’s no employment. Nobody is going to move to a country for economic reasons when the income opportunity is zero.
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Old 17-05-2019, 12:20 PM   #1238
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Then a little ES3 is OK with me.
Ok, not a ringing endorsement then. Just ploughing my way through the POSB Invest-saver thread which, I just realised, buys G3B, not ES3.

There’s much to disagree with, but I’d just like to highlight how this combination doesn’t make sense. There are no economic migrants when there’s no employment. Nobody is going to move to a country for economic reasons when the income opportunity is zero.
I don't understand. Are you saying all migrants are economic migrants? Retirees?

Last edited by duckmite; 17-05-2019 at 12:30 PM.. Reason: Hyphens matter.
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Old 17-05-2019, 02:21 PM   #1239
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Ok, not a ringing endorsement then. Just ploughing my way through the POSB Invest-saver thread which, I just realised, buys G3B, not ES3.
G3B is the very slightly higher expense ratio alternative to ES3.

Are you saying all migrants are economic migrants? Retirees?
No, quite the opposite, but if you’re concerned about unauthorized economic migration then all you need to do is to shut down the easier-to-police half of the equation: the employer side. Singapore takes this approach, as an example.

I might favor essentially unlimited, non-immigrant, non-employment, renewable elective residence for those who pass a criminal background check and post a bond — buy a 30 year U.S. Treasury bond, for example, that’s held in escrow including accrued coupons. Probably also with a requirement to avoid any rental or purchase housing in particular “hot” housing areas — Silicon Valley, for example — because it wouldn’t be in the public interest to spike housing costs in low supply areas.
FinalDestiny... likes this.

Last edited by BBCWatcher; 17-05-2019 at 02:25 PM..
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Old 17-05-2019, 02:42 PM   #1240
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G3B is the very slightly higher expense ratio alternative to ES3.
Also better performing, it seems.

No, quite the opposite, but if you’re concerned about unauthorized economic migration then all you need to do is to shut down the easier-to-police half of the equation: the employer side. Singapore takes this approach, as an example.
Got it! Take their HDB flats! Or the equivalent.
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Old 17-05-2019, 05:17 PM   #1241
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Hi BBC,

When you feel that the market is frothy and a lot of political and economic uncertainties ahead playing out in the news, while the market still close to all time high, and valuation is still very high for all the key index components...

  • Will you reduce your DCA amount or still continue the same amount ?
  • Will you tweak your asset allocation to be more defensive ?

Thanks
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Old 17-05-2019, 08:06 PM   #1242
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When you feel that the market is frothy and a lot of political and economic uncertainties ahead playing out in the news, while the market still close to all time high, and valuation is still very high for all the key index components...
  • Will you reduce your DCA amount or still continue the same amount ?
Steady as she goes.

  • Will you tweak your asset allocation to be more defensive ?
Only if that's part of the original program, i.e. you're in the particular years before retirement when such adjustments are merited.

Markets should hit all-time highs if you give them long enough to do it. Otherwise you probably wouldn't be buying low cost, well diversified stock index funds. Consumer prices keep hitting all-time highs, too, with a few "burbles" along the way. That's called inflation.

As for frothy, there's a measure of that: the CBOE Volatility Index, a.k.a. "VIX." The VIX isn't particularly high right now. You can actually make volatility-related bets via the VIX and other derivatives if you wish.
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Old 22-05-2019, 04:00 PM   #1243
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I've seen a lot of questions coming from those who are holding "too many" U.S. dollars. "What to do?"

One of the possible choices available is to invest in high quality bonds. If you're a non-U.S. person, U.S. domiciled bond funds generally don't work too well, but there are some U.S. bond funds domiciled elsewhere that can. High quality individual U.S. bonds, on the other hand, can work quite well, assuming bonds are appropriate for what you're trying to achieve. U.S. Treasuries, the world's safest U.S. dollar denominated bonds, are popular choices and readily available via Interactive Brokers and Schwab, as notable examples.

Hypothetically, high quality U.S. state bonds could work for certain investment goals. The secondary market has a fair number of them, and you should be able to find some via either of those brokers I just mentioned. But what about original issue? Well, that's coming up: the State of Georgia is issuing some general obligation bonds in June, 2019. Georgia is one of the handful of U.S. states that have the highest credit rating. All three bond rating agencies give Georgia their highest marks. If you're a non-U.S. person you'll likely want to investigate Georgia Series 2019B, their U.S. federally taxable series. That's because (as I understand it) there's no U.S. tax on those bonds for non-U.S. persons, and the yield will be correspondingly higher since U.S. investors holding those particular bonds will demand a higher yield to compensate for their tax loss.

Georgia hasn't officially announced these bonds yet, so details at this point are scant. And I have no idea how you'd bid for them at original issue or if that's even possible, although IB and/or Schwab might be able to help once there's a CUSIP (unique identifier code) and firm offer date. We don't know anything yet about term(s) or other details. Of course, you should do your homework, and I make no recommendation.

The Series 2019B bonds should have slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasuries of similar maturities issued at about the same time. A U.S. state has some independent taxing power (in its fully U.S. dollarized economy) -- Georgia has both state income and sales taxes -- but not the entire nation's economic base, taxing power, and ability to print the world's most popular fiat currency.

Don't get confused between the U.S. state of Georgia, home of Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (the 2018 world's busiest in terms of passenger volume), and the nation of Georgia. They're completely different entities, and their bonds are very different.
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Old 22-05-2019, 05:04 PM   #1244
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So if interest on US Treasuries are not taxable, what about the bond funds VGSH / VGIT / VGLT? Are the distributions also tax-free?
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Old 22-05-2019, 05:26 PM   #1245
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So if interest on US Treasuries are not taxable, what about the bond funds VGSH / VGIT / VGLT? Are the distributions also tax-free?
Hypothetically, the U.S. domiciled bond funds could be U.S. income tax free to non-U.S. persons. The fund managers would just have to do a bit more reporting to qualify the whole fund for the portfolio interest exemption. In practice, fund managers don't seem to bother. It could be because the U.S. bond funds are still counted as U.S. estate taxable assets.
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