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Old 12-02-2016, 02:54 PM   #1
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Russian Rouble

Hi, I'm an amateur forex trader (trade after work only). I'm fairly up to date with the market and am aware of the big crash in oil prices and oil exporting nations' currencies like the russian ruble.

Anyone has any prediction of when this may recover? Ruble has fallen very much over the past couple of years. Looking for an opportunity to long it once oil shows signs of recovering which may be within the next few months.

Also, I am currently using oanda which does not offer ruble. Anyone knows any other brokerage which offers the ruble and other exotic pairs with reasonable spread?

Thanks
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Old 12-02-2016, 03:54 PM   #2
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Not sure if this helps.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/e...howcategories=
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Old 12-02-2016, 03:57 PM   #3
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Nice! Thanks Perisher.
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Old 12-02-2016, 05:04 PM   #4
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Ruble has fallen very much over the past couple of years. Looking for an opportunity to long it once oil shows signs of recovering which may be within the next few months.
Below is my own personal opinion and should not considered as a investment advice. (C) I speak fluently in Russian and lived in Russia for 5.5 years so I can understand a little bit more the processes going there.

I would personally stay away from Ruble and Russian market in near future unless you specialize in short-term speculations and are very well aware of risks.

The problem with Ruble and Russia at the current moment is pretty much the same as with Venezuela. Problem is that local politics determine a lot with currency fluctuation - they are not market driven. In short - because Russian politics are unpredictable (take a look what happend last 2 years) and in reality depends on will and mood of only one person.

Number of economists would agree that ruble at this moment is undervalued but even if oil prices recover, it would not necessarily mean that ruble will recover to the same level. Elections are coming this year for local parliament and presidential elections will be coming in 2018 as well as World Cup.

One might think what Would Cup has to do with the currency, but remember that Winter Olympics in 2014 cost US $51B - the most expensive Olympics in history. There are absolutely no indications that World Cup would cost less.

This and many, many more... one can go on and on.

Last edited by invisible999; 12-02-2016 at 10:17 PM..
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Old 12-02-2016, 07:00 PM   #5
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Wow thank you for the insightful comments invisible999. Yes I understand that in countries such as Russia, China, etc the government controls the economy and markets to a large extent.

I have looked at the ruble overly from an economic perspective. Shall factor in the political risks in my analysis. I will watch oil, ruble and russian politics more closely before entering.

Thanks

Below is my own personal opinion and should not considered as a investment advice. (C) I speak fluently in Russian and lived in Russia for 5.5 years so I can understand a little bit more the processes going there.

I would personally stay away from Ruble and Russian market in near future unless you specialize in short-term speculations and are very well aware of risks.

The problem with Ruble and Russia at the current moment is pretty much the same as with Venezuela. Problem is that local politics determine a lot with currency fluctuation - they are not market driven. In short - because Russian politics are unpredictable (take a look what happend last 2 years) and in reality depends on will and mood of only one person.

Number of economists would agree that ruble at this moment is undervalued but even if oil prices recover, it would not necessarily mean that ruble will recover to the same level. Elections are coming this year for local parliament and presidential elections will be coming in 2018 as well as World Cup.

One might think what Would Cup has to do with the currency, but remember that Winter Olympics in 2014 cost US $51 - the most expensive Olympics in history. There are absolutely no indications that World Cup would cost less.

This and many, many more... one can go on and on.
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Old 12-02-2016, 09:42 PM   #6
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Anyone has any prediction of when this may recover? Ruble has fallen very much over the past couple of years. Looking for an opportunity to long it once oil shows signs of recovering which may be within the next few months.
The answer might be "never". USDRUB has an unfortunate habit (like a lot of dysfunctional EM currencies - IDR anyone?) of gapping higher and never coming back. If you have a look at a loooong-term chart: it hyperinflated in the early 90s, when they knocked three zeroes off the currency; then it screamed from 4 to 30 during the 1998 crisis and never came back; and then in 2014 it started rocketing higher again. I personally don't think it's ever going to get back to 30.

Incidentally, you can trust Invisible on this - he knows his stuff.

Also, I am currently using oanda which does not offer ruble. Anyone knows any other brokerage which offers the ruble and other exotic pairs with reasonable spread?

Thanks
Interactive Brokers will do USDRUB - right now, at the tail end of Moscow time (peak liquidity is 10am-5pm Moscow), it's 79.26/79.31 in $500k a side.

There are CME futures as well, but the liquidity's better in the spot market (CME's about 10 pips wide), and the CME futures trade "upside-down" (RUB/USD) which is confusing as hell.
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Old 12-02-2016, 10:04 PM   #7
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i think its time to buy gold since the russians are going crazy for it.....canadian dollar is also badly affected by the oil crisis.upcoming market instabilities also good news for gold.

this oil crisis is turning out to be many blessings in disguise.
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Old 12-02-2016, 10:25 PM   #8
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Wow thank you for the insightful comments invisible999. Yes I understand that in countries such as Russia, China, etc the government controls the economy and markets to a large extent.

I have looked at the ruble overly from an economic perspective. Shall factor in the political risks in my analysis. I will watch oil, ruble and russian politics more closely before entering.

Thanks
I am more convinced with long term stability of political\economic system in China, than in Russia.

It is difficult to explain in this thread or over Internet forum but how paradoxical it might sound, the political system in Russia might crash in matter of days with a catalyst which has nothing to do with oil or economics. Like murder of opposition politician in a broad daylight, or banning FB/Youtube/Twitter in addition to imported cheese (no, it is not a joke).

The thing is that current system does not have any checks and balances, instead it is built as locally called Vertical Power (close to impossible to translate the expression). At the top of the power (the Vertical, but better think of a pyramid) is this one guy and it ends up that ANY more or less serious political\economical decision (even to increase sales tax in a region 9000km away) needs to be made by him. Nobody below can make any decision due to fear for being punished for it.

In 2015 oil and oil byproducts in Russian exports were 67%. Compare this to 30% if the share 15 years ago. Share of government sector in economy has exceeded 55%.

I can go on and on, but better not. Just trust me that at this moment in Russia is pretty much the same situation as it was 100 years ago - in 1915-16 for a political standpoint. What happened afterwards is well documented in history books.

I would not put my money there until underlying problems of political system and governance are addressed. Which is not going to happen any time soon, seems.
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Last edited by invisible999; 12-02-2016 at 10:39 PM..
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Old 13-02-2016, 07:21 PM   #9
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It is an honour to have you and invisible giving good advice.

Wow, I really thought there was a good opportunity here. However, given the risks involved, I guess I would rather focus on other solid ideas like SG blue chips..

The answer might be "never". USDRUB has an unfortunate habit (like a lot of dysfunctional EM currencies - IDR anyone?) of gapping higher and never coming back. If you have a look at a loooong-term chart: it hyperinflated in the early 90s, when they knocked three zeroes off the currency; then it screamed from 4 to 30 during the 1998 crisis and never came back; and then in 2014 it started rocketing higher again. I personally don't think it's ever going to get back to 30.

Incidentally, you can trust Invisible on this - he knows his stuff.



Interactive Brokers will do USDRUB - right now, at the tail end of Moscow time (peak liquidity is 10am-5pm Moscow), it's 79.26/79.31 in $500k a side.

There are CME futures as well, but the liquidity's better in the spot market (CME's about 10 pips wide), and the CME futures trade "upside-down" (RUB/USD) which is confusing as hell.
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Old 13-02-2016, 07:23 PM   #10
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Yup, aud,nzd and the cad may recover soon enough.. Instead of buying into gold which eats up a lot more margin, I'm more into silver now as they are highly co-related. Hope the rally continues!

i think its time to buy gold since the russians are going crazy for it.....canadian dollar is also badly affected by the oil crisis.upcoming market instabilities also good news for gold.

this oil crisis is turning out to be many blessings in disguise.
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Old 11-06-2018, 02:29 PM   #11
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Looking to exchange 2,500 to 4,000 SGD to Russian Rubles

Any Russian expats here or anyone has at least 1k SGD worth of Russian Rubles? I am flying to Russia soon, will spend at least a month there so looking to exchange SGD to Ruble! If you have, please contact me at 98777912. Spasibo!
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