2020 market expectations and positioning

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coolhead

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personally i dont think this is the correct time to think of going long. High chance of it going worse in the states

I rather be a bear than bull until maybe next month where we get results from the trials



i mean long like a relief rally kinda thing, for example buying tqqq.

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DukeCS33

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Holding and not selling stocks with good fundamentals is the first step that most investors should do (haven't heard from revhappy lately, wonder if he is holding or selling? -maybe he's cleverly avoiding reading financial news & anonymous internet posts because of the high amount of 'noise' during corrections)

The second step which many don't take is to buy some more. If you believe that your current holdings are good counters (if they were rubbish you should be selling them ASAP), then you should be buying more when they are on sale.

It depends on what type of trading and timeframe revhappy is adopting. If he is trading long term, then a lot of the shorter term plays will be noise. If he is adopting DCA, then good to stay the course and follow his methodology. In that case, it does not matter what the market does unless we have a depression.
 

churnmaster

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Holding and not selling stocks with good fundamentals is the first step that most investors should do (haven't heard from revhappy lately, wonder if he is holding or selling? -maybe he's cleverly avoiding reading financial news & anonymous internet posts because of the high amount of 'noise' during corrections)

The second step which many don't take is to buy some more. If you believe that your current holdings are good counters (if they were rubbish you should be selling them ASAP), then you should be buying more when they are on sale.

Do you ever sell? OR
Did you sell earlier when the market was trading higher?

We know you keep buying and I agree with you that buy more when on sale.
 

gamerx

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New York Declared Emergency!

Another 1000 point drop for DJ30 on Mon...?

Wonder what it takes for WHO to declare it a Pandemic...

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/no-202-declaring-disaster-emergency-state-new-york

Any specific measures that from this order that is economically significant? I glanced through and it seems to be mostly about government processes.

Seems like sh!t has hit the ceiling this time. I was so focused on situations in China and Europe that I didn't notice the U.S was doing such a terrible job in dealing with the virus.
 

weng0202

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Any specific measures that from this order that is economically significant? I glanced through and it seems to be mostly about government processes.

Seems like sh!t has hit the ceiling this time. I was so focused on situations in China and Europe that I didn't notice the U.S was doing such a terrible job in dealing with the virus.

Read somewhere that there is this fund/insurance that will pay out the amount invested when there is a pandemic. That's why got speculation that is the reason why never declare yet. Don't know real or not. Lol
 

MikeDirnt78

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personally i dont think this is the correct time to think of going long. High chance of it going worse in the states

I rather be a bear than bull until maybe next month where we get results from the trials

China had peaked and the number of cases and deaths are going down now.

You think US and other developed countries can be worst off than China?

If yes, then I think you better prep for the worst.

If no, use the dips as great buying opportunities.
 
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Urbanchap

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Other countries cannot lockdown entire cities/towns the way China can. So may take longer to contain the spread :s22:
 

DukeCS33

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China had peaked and the number of cases and deaths are going down now.

You think US and other developed countries can be worst off than China?

If yes, then I think you better prep for the worst.

If no, use the dips as great buying opportunities.

The Chinese numbers are not to be trusted. I had an account from my neighbour who works in the medical field and travels extensively to China for his work.... the numbers are coming down because of the way infections and deaths are counted. Anyone not dying in hospital nor tested by a test kit from the hospital would not be counted as infected. Of course the draconian lock down of cities would help stop the spread of infections.
Given that the Chinese are declaring zero cases in Wuhan by end march - they will get there... the key question is if this zero infection number may be trusted? I think a better measure would be when factories open and continue to stay open. Worse fear is that factories open, infection picks up and they close again.
 

coolhead

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A drop of 30% or so is quite rare but does happen about every 10 years or so. There is no telling how deep this correction/collapse can go. How long it takes to get to the bottom is equally unpredictable. It could be 1 week, 1 month or 1 year.

Wise words from Warren Buffett :

"I don't think I can make money by predicting what's going to go on next week or next month," he said. "I do think I can make money by predicting what will go on in the next 10 years."

"Even when the market tanks,*don't panic and sell, Buffett has said. Stay the course and trust your original plan. If you have a long-term investment strategy, you have plenty of time for your portfolio to recover from any dips. "The money is made in investments by investing and by owning good companies for long periods of time," Buffett*told CNBC in 2016."

Then the golden question here is "is Warren Buffett also subscribing to the tactic of timing the market?" If he does not intend to time the market, then why keep so much cash of up to US$128bn if over the long term of 10 years, he knows he will make more money being in the market?"

I do not expect us to answer this question on behalf of the legendary investor but I rather see the actions of the investor himself rather than what he say.
 

DukeCS33

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Then the golden question here is "is Warren Buffett also subscribing to the tactic of timing the market?" If he does not intend to time the market, then why keep so much cash of up to US$128bn if over the long term of 10 years, he knows he will make more money being in the market?"

I do not expect us to answer this question on behalf of the legendary investor but I rather see the actions of the investor himself rather than what he say.

Everybody times the market. It's whether you want to admit it or not. The mere act of buying at a certain price and time meansone believes that it is the best timing to buy... Otherwise why buy now?
 

revhappy

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China had peaked and the number of cases and deaths are going down now.

You think US and other developed countries can be worst off than China?

If yes, then I think you better prep for the worst.

If no, use the dips as great buying opportunities.

US is horribly prepared to this compared to China. They dont even have enough testing kits yet. As the number of deaths increase in US, the authorities will have to cancel events and have lockdowns. This is going to get a lot worse and then there could be some systemic failures, that we cannot predict now.

Yes, we need to be prepared for the worst.
 

applecrisp

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Then the golden question here is "is Warren Buffett also subscribing to the tactic of timing the market?" If he does not intend to time the market, then why keep so much cash of up to US$128bn if over the long term of 10 years, he knows he will make more money being in the market?"

I do not expect us to answer this question on behalf of the legendary investor but I rather see the actions of the investor himself rather than what he say.

He definately times the market to a certain extent. This guy is a value player at his core. How to buy “cheap” if you dont time the market...
 

revhappy

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Holding and not selling stocks with good fundamentals is the first step that most investors should do (haven't heard from revhappy lately, wonder if he is holding or selling? -maybe he's cleverly avoiding reading financial news & anonymous internet posts because of the high amount of 'noise' during corrections)

The second step which many don't take is to buy some more. If you believe that your current holdings are good counters (if they were rubbish you should be selling them ASAP), then you should be buying more when they are on sale.

I am not buying and definitely not selling right now. It is easy to jump in and buy, but if I buy too much and market crashes, it will create more fear and anxiety for me. So I am keeping my current allocation of 40% to equities. I will probably increase it to 50%, I have another 100k to invest. The thing is when you know at the back of you mind that you still have dry powder, it is much easier to be calm in falling markets.
 

weng0202

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Other countries cannot lockdown entire cities/towns the way China can. So may take longer to contain the spread :s22:

If use China as bench mark, it will take about 4-5 months before Covid 19 comes under control. Hopefully vaccine will be out by then. Don't know whether they can cut down on the time taken for the vaccine to be out on the market.
 

coolhead

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He definately times the market to a certain extent. This guy is a value player at his core. How to buy *********cheap********* if you dont time the market...

Everybody times the market. It's whether you want to admit it or not. The mere act of buying at a certain price and time meansone believes that it is the best timing to buy... Otherwise why buy now?



that's true to both posts. maybe the main message is buy and hold long term fundamentally sound companies whenever value presents itself.

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Trader11

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US situation will get worse and we might have cities lock down.....

However after this, we expect the companies who survive to recover fast as people will overspend after being trapped in wfh or quarantine for too long
 

limster

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Institutional investors like Berkshire , Temasek can participate in private placements of shares from desperate companies at favourable terms. I'm sure Berkshire is looking for that sort of opportunity.

Though the risk of buying individual stocks is that markets recover, but individual stocks may not. Remember GIC and UBS? =:p
 

tomatoman

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US situation will get worse and we might have cities lock down.....

However after this, we expect the companies who survive to recover fast as people will overspend after being trapped in wfh or quarantine for too long

Air travel should help airline and hospitality stocks then
 
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