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2020 market expectations and positioning

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Old 17-01-2020, 11:02 AM   #16
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I noticed xle etf is still quite cheap with 6% dividend yield. If global reflation trade is true, we will have bounce back in oil, rite?
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Old 17-01-2020, 11:29 AM   #17
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US markets went up so much last night but STI is down today. STI looks cheap but for some reason, is not performing. I would only buy REITs in Singapore, not the STI ETF.
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Old 17-01-2020, 11:37 AM   #18
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Sold almost a year ago and yeah missed out on the big returns.
Would there be a level where you would bite the bullet and buy in again albeit at a higher level than where you sold?
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Old 17-01-2020, 11:39 AM   #19
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US markets went up so much last night but STI is down today. STI looks cheap but for some reason, is not performing. I would only buy REITs in Singapore, not the STI ETF.
To be fair, other Asian markets are quite muted today too. HSI and Shanghai are flat while nikkei is up 0.5%
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Old 17-01-2020, 11:55 AM   #20
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Would there be a level where you would bite the bullet and buy in again albeit at a higher level than where you sold?
It is a mental block to buy back at a price higher than what I sold, so looks difficult to buy back again. I would instead look at other markets that didn't go up so much, it is okay if they don't go back up in a hurry. Dividend yield, higher than bonds helps.
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Old 17-01-2020, 01:16 PM   #21
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US markets went up so much last night but STI is down today. STI looks cheap but for some reason, is not performing. I would only buy REITs in Singapore, not the STI ETF.
Are reit etf worth looking into ? I also feel sti etf is meh
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Old 17-01-2020, 02:44 PM   #22
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I'm pretty overweight on US equities especially precious metals mining stocks. currently 50% cash and 50% stocks.

I'll liquidate 25% of stock portfolio if US index drops 5% and the same proportional liquidation till precious metals mining stocks is 10% of my portfolio.
Otherwise, i will hang on as market increases.

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Old 17-01-2020, 04:00 PM   #23
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Currently only 30% invested, hoping to double it this year.

Sticking with S-REITs mostly, with some small positions on cheap electronics stocks. Some positions in local banks as well to bet on wealth management trends.

Minimizing exposure to China because the full extent of the trade war and their corporate debt issue has yet to be realized.

Looking at taking up positions in the U.S market, but have yet to form a view.
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Old 17-01-2020, 04:50 PM   #24
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I'm pretty overweight on US equities especially precious metals mining stocks. currently 50% cash and 50% stocks.

I'll liquidate 25% of stock portfolio if US index drops 5% and the same proportional liquidation till precious metals mining stocks is 10% of my portfolio.
Otherwise, i will hang on as market increases.

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If drops another 5% or 10% or 20%?

You end up liquidating everything?
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Old 17-01-2020, 05:48 PM   #25
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If drops another 5% or 10% or 20%?

You end up liquidating everything?


I won't liquidate everything as I'll only have 10% precious metals stocks minimum. however, to reach this level, the US index will need to sell off about 15%. this is to protect my capital from a steep selloff.

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Old 17-01-2020, 06:44 PM   #26
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I won't liquidate everything as I'll only have 10% precious metals stocks minimum. however, to reach this level, the US index will need to sell off about 15%. this is to protect my capital from a steep selloff.
OK totally opposite of the conventional wisdom among long term investors.

Personally, I just sold little of QQQ today. I have been selling some shares for past 6 months.
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Old 17-01-2020, 10:59 PM   #27
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OK totally opposite of the conventional wisdom among long term investors.

Personally, I just sold little of QQQ today. I have been selling some shares for past 6 months.


by conventional wisdom, i take it that you mean buy and hold. In that case, I'll agree with you that is against the wisdom of long term investors.

I feel that in the case of market correction at this point, capital preservation is more important than potential capital growth. until then, I'll want to enjoy the capital growth with the repo liquidity as long as it happens, even though the market doesn't make sense with economic and corporate fundamental anymore.

The worst case scenario to me is the stock market drops 20% next week only to resume upwards 25% the week thereafter. Otherwise, I'll just go with the fed.

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Old 18-01-2020, 10:02 AM   #28
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by conventional wisdom, i take it that you mean buy and hold. In that case, I'll agree with you that is against the wisdom of long term investors.

I feel that in the case of market correction at this point, capital preservation is more important than potential capital growth. until then, I'll want to enjoy the capital growth with the repo liquidity as long as it happens, even though the market doesn't make sense with economic and corporate fundamental anymore.

The worst case scenario to me is the stock market drops 20% next week only to resume upwards 25% the week thereafter. Otherwise, I'll just go with the fed.

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The funny thing is the repo liquidity is not fueling allround bull market. Outside US valuations are still cheap. Even within US, it is very narrow few sectors and some bellwethers are going up. The S&P500 index is structured such that it just goes up with liquidity, due to the biggies in it have the biggest weight. But there are parts of the market like Energy that is very cheap. If there is global reflation trade these sectors should do well.

So I am now going to play sector ETFs, mostly by selling long term puts. My core portfolio I will keep in ES3, those puts will be sold against portfolio margin.
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Old 18-01-2020, 11:01 AM   #29
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The funny thing is the repo liquidity is not fueling allround bull market. Outside US valuations are still cheap. Even within US, it is very narrow few sectors and some bellwethers are going up. The S&P500 index is structured such that it just goes up with liquidity, due to the biggies in it have the biggest weight. But there are parts of the market like Energy that is very cheap. If there is global reflation trade these sectors should do well.

So I am now going to play sector ETFs, mostly by selling long term puts. My core portfolio I will keep in ES3, those puts will be sold against portfolio margin.
You are selling puts? On IB?
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Old 18-01-2020, 12:18 PM   #30
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You are selling puts? On IB?
Selling puts, using Saxo.
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