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2020 market expectations and positioning

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Old 21-01-2020, 09:48 AM   #46
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Why the sudden plunge? I just picked up 2 MSCI Singapore future contracts for 374.

Funny thing, even on the day of Soleimani killing, SG market fell less than what it has fallen today with no news.

Last edited by revhappy; 21-01-2020 at 10:07 AM..
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Old 21-01-2020, 11:02 AM   #47
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Why the sudden plunge? I just picked up 2 MSCI Singapore future contracts for 374.

Funny thing, even on the day of Soleimani killing, SG market fell less than what it has fallen today with no news.

People say that it is the fear of the "new SARS". If u were in Spore in 2003, u will understand....
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Old 21-01-2020, 11:24 AM   #48
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Wuhan pneumonia, and moody downgraded HK's credit rating.
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Old 21-01-2020, 11:27 AM   #49
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Wuhan pneumonia, and moody downgraded HK's credit rating.
It would be peak travel season for the Chinese. They will travel within and outside China and therein lies the fear of the desease spreading. Not sure if this is impacting sp futures as well but guess everyone is just awaiting a reason to profit take.
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Old 21-01-2020, 12:19 PM   #50
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shorting opportunity for chinese stocks tonight
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Old 21-01-2020, 12:25 PM   #51
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And for those not all in on equities, that is a huge mistake. Huge. Keeping cash to the tune of double digit percentages is ridiculous.
By this do you mean that now is the time to be 100% into equities, or do you mean that by default you are always 100% into equities regardless of it being a bull or bear market?
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Old 21-01-2020, 06:58 PM   #52
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By this do you mean that now is the time to be 100% into equities, or do you mean that by default you are always 100% into equities regardless of it being a bull or bear market?
It depends on your investing style.

If you are a passive or index investor, stick to the monthly purchase. Don't stop or do anything funny.

If you are an active investor, 100% allocation to equity now is completely absurd.
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Old 21-01-2020, 07:16 PM   #53
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Wuhan pneumonia, and moody downgraded HK's credit rating.
It will be quite scary. No one knows the impact. China previously said contain within Wuhan market, then Wuhan, then now kana Shanghai, Beijing and cases are present overseas. From what I understand, already 4 death in China. WHO previously claim no evidence of Human to Human transmission but now say Human and Human transmission possible. Seems like flipping prata as and when they like.

Last time they also say none infected medical workers but now 15 medical workers affected and 1 is in critical condition. Haha! Scary. As long as 1 case comes in, likely to have many cases

https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-51185836
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Old 21-01-2020, 07:43 PM   #54
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It will be quite scary. No one knows the impact. China previously said contain within Wuhan market, then Wuhan, then now kana Shanghai, Beijing and cases are present overseas. From what I understand, already 4 death in China. WHO previously claim no evidence of Human to Human transmission but now say Human and Human transmission possible. Seems like flipping prata as and when they like.

Last time they also say none infected medical workers but now 15 medical workers affected and 1 is in critical condition. Haha! Scary. As long as 1 case comes in, likely to have many cases

https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-51185836

The question is whether this virus will mutate into something more contagious and deadly than it already is. The CNY travelling season is not going to help matters.
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Old 21-01-2020, 07:56 PM   #55
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It will be quite scary. No one knows the impact. China previously said contain within Wuhan market, then Wuhan, then now kana Shanghai, Beijing and cases are present overseas. From what I understand, already 4 death in China. WHO previously claim no evidence of Human to Human transmission but now say Human and Human transmission possible. Seems like flipping prata as and when they like.

Last time they also say none infected medical workers but now 15 medical workers affected and 1 is in critical condition. Haha! Scary. As long as 1 case comes in, likely to have many cases

https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-51185836
Trust the Chinese to be transparent with numbers...
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Old 21-01-2020, 08:41 PM   #56
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Hopefully by coming summer time, the wuhan virus will auto wipe out. Yes, it's scary during SARS, and now ...hhmmmm.....

It will be quite scary. No one knows the impact. China previously said contain within Wuhan market, then Wuhan, then now kana Shanghai, Beijing and cases are present overseas. From what I understand, already 4 death in China. WHO previously claim no evidence of Human to Human transmission but now say Human and Human transmission possible. Seems like flipping prata as and when they like.

Last time they also say none infected medical workers but now 15 medical workers affected and 1 is in critical condition. Haha! Scary. As long as 1 case comes in, likely to have many cases

https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www....china-51185836
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Old 21-01-2020, 09:01 PM   #57
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It will be quite scary. No one knows the impact. China previously said contain within Wuhan market, then Wuhan, then now kana Shanghai, Beijing and cases are present overseas. From what I understand, already 4 death in China. WHO previously claim no evidence of Human to Human transmission but now say Human and Human transmission possible. Seems like flipping prata as and when they like.

Last time they also say none infected medical workers but now 15 medical workers affected and 1 is in critical condition. Haha! Scary. As long as 1 case comes in, likely to have many cases

https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-51185836


don't worry, fed repo liquidity will save the day

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Old 21-01-2020, 09:10 PM   #58
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don't worry, fed repo liquidity will save the day

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Liquidity can do alot of wonder but can't raise the dead
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Old 21-01-2020, 09:52 PM   #59
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It will be quite scary. No one knows the impact. China previously said contain within Wuhan market, then Wuhan, then now kana Shanghai, Beijing and cases are present overseas. From what I understand, already 4 death in China. WHO previously claim no evidence of Human to Human transmission but now say Human and Human transmission possible. Seems like flipping prata as and when they like.

Last time they also say none infected medical workers but now 15 medical workers affected and 1 is in critical condition. Haha! Scary. As long as 1 case comes in, likely to have many cases

https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-51185836
The global economy survived MCD and SARS, I think we can survive this.
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Old 22-01-2020, 12:25 AM   #60
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-must-collapse

If you guys are feeling terrible, missing out on all the juicy gains, just remember, this is behavioural, when you have the maximum urge to go and invest money into the market and feeling of FOMO, it is usually the wrong time. When you are really fearful and cautious to invest, it is usually a good time.

Right now, nobody wants to hedge, everyone wants to be as long as possible. I think people with patience will have better opportunity in the future.
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