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2020 market expectations and positioning

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Old 11-05-2020, 07:18 PM   #9991
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Thanks for sharing. If we look at SGX sectorial flows for institutions, Tech has been a net inflow, so perhaps that's where the funds are flowing on a broader scale in the US and Euro markets.

That said, in a major recession, I am not convinced that Tech can be spared, esp those heavily dependent on online discretionary spending and online advertising.
Many a times, the flows would precede a major piece of news. There was this counter where I had an alert of a large dark pool trade last Friday and just 30mins ago, there was a piece of news that was released that caused it to jump 10% in the pre market. All these flows can be analysed to see if the large funds are rotating monies as well but many times, I just prefer to follow them just for news release that may cause potential spike in prices.
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Old 11-05-2020, 08:04 PM   #9992
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SGX RegCo removes 'blunt' MTP tool, enhances financial watch-list

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/new...ial-watch-list
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Old 11-05-2020, 09:24 PM   #9993
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Property market will definitely beat that.
I wouldn't be so sure about that.

https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-...pe-of-property

Property has done very poorly in the last 10 years, no one knows what the impact of this virus is going to be like on property, now that everything is going online...
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Old 11-05-2020, 09:41 PM   #9994
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Property is huat on lifestyle and Long term capital gain la

Gone the days where the rental cover the mortgage and got excess
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Old 11-05-2020, 09:58 PM   #9995
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Property price appreciation depends on growth of population, income growth and stability of employment.

Population growth will not be as high as a decade ago because population density very high now. We have Low birth rate and tighter PR policies now.

Income growth now at 2-3 % steady state, this year recession maybe negative income growth.

Stability of employment. Fewer companies offering perm posts and more offering temporary or contract positions.

Without these 3 Drivers, hard to see property will appreciate much.


Oh ya, many leasehold properties will be left with 30 years in ten years time and hard to get loans for mortgage. Government can take back the land at Low cost to redevelop.

With Low demand and soon to increase supply from foreigners leaving in a recession, investing in property isnít as profitable as before.
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:02 PM   #9996
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I wouldn't be so sure about that.

https://data.gov.sg/dataset/private-...pe-of-property

Property has done very poorly in the last 10 years, no one knows what the impact of this virus is going to be like on property, now that everything is going online...
chrisloh will say you are looking at the index but when it comes to property investing, you are not buying the index but picking the property that will go up in price!

pls go to the guru's official thread to learn more!
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:28 PM   #9997
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Institutional funds outflow in April and 1st week of May have been huge on SGX. Does that tell us anything about the SG market for the coming weeks, as far as the funds are concerned?
may i know under sgx which link?
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Old 11-05-2020, 10:47 PM   #9998
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According to published data, there is strong institutional buying in STI shares in the week end April. Also, Institutional investors go in and out, and by the time you trade based on it (a week or two late), they might have reversed course. Data also showed institutional net sell on STI shares in the week where STI bottomed and in the week after, yet shares have risen so much since then. How come?
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Old 11-05-2020, 11:30 PM   #9999
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Property price appreciation depends on growth of population, income growth and stability of employment.

Population growth will not be as high as a decade ago because population density very high now. We have Low birth rate and tighter PR policies now.

Income growth now at 2-3 % steady state, this year recession maybe negative income growth.

Stability of employment. Fewer companies offering perm posts and more offering temporary or contract positions.

Without these 3 Drivers, hard to see property will appreciate much.


Oh ya, many leasehold properties will be left with 30 years in ten years time and hard to get loans for mortgage. Government can take back the land at Low cost to redevelop.

With Low demand and soon to increase supply from foreigners leaving in a recession, investing in property isnít as profitable as before.
The rental market supply demand is very interesting. Around 2012-2013 the rental market was crazy, even shabby 3rm bedroom HDBs were going to like 2.3k. The property agent would call like 10 prospective tenants to come and view and then it would be like a bidding war. The most desperate one would just accept whatever the agent quotes.

But now it is completely opposite. You want to view a house, you search propertyguru and the agent fixes an appointment for you. The houses stay vacant for a month or 2 and sometimes more. In 2012-13, even before the previous tenant has vacated, like 1 month before the house would already be taken up by the next one.

If you are a renter in Singapore now, and you have been here for 10 years, you have seen the complete cycle. This is the best time to rent.
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Old 12-05-2020, 12:01 AM   #10000
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bears all dead???
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Old 12-05-2020, 12:39 AM   #10001
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Did you guys read this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia


The value of some of the leveraged short positions in Singapore Airlines Ltd. got wiped out on Wednesday after the carrierís share price surged due to an adjustment for a rights issue of stock and convertible bonds.

A price movement of more than 20% within 15 minutes led to one of Societe Generale SAís products shorting the stock -- DLC SG5xShort SIA -- losing all its value after a so-called airbag trigger was activated, the French bank said in a Friday statement. Trading of the instrument has since been permanently suspended.
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Old 12-05-2020, 12:40 AM   #10002
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I think the boat have left
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Old 12-05-2020, 12:40 AM   #10003
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Dear members, please take note that this thread is now closed due to its huge size. A new thread has been automatically generated for your continued discussion here
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