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2020 market expectations and positioning

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Old 23-01-2020, 10:33 PM   #91
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Pls note that many many punters in HK n Spore remember the SARS events n as such, are also waiting to buy. So I m not sure by how much the stock market will sink before buyers pile in. I just read that the first Wuhan virus case in Spore has been confirmed. My guess is that this epidemic will get worse before it gets better.
https://mothership.sg/2020/01/china-lock-down-2-cities-wuhan/

This virus is spreading and there is no effective way to contain it... Singapore has its first confirmed case and it is a matter of time before other countries get affected. Peak Chinese travel season would highlight this risk. Those who are looking to buy dips thinking that it would pass would be taking on a big risk. The safer way to play this is when mkts stabilises and rebound after the danger has passed.
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Old 23-01-2020, 10:44 PM   #92
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Very useful comment
As useful as what was quoted
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Old 24-01-2020, 01:57 PM   #93
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STI can skyrocket, if the authorities start behaving like FED and Trump. If CPF interest is reduced from 4% to 2% and Temasek, GIC and MAS start doing large scale asset purchases of Singapore equities, it will rocket.

But it is good that they are not doing it. Valuations are low and it allows people to accumulate cheap, while property markets are kept out of speculation.


STI made its peak in Oct 2007 and it still hasn't reached there after 13 years. Although I do a regular monthly investments in it and I am aware that there are dividends as well, the poor performance of STI is a concern.

Another aspect to look for is SGD which is a strong currency to hold. It has done well against almost all popular currencies of the world in last 15 years.

So there are 2 sides to the argument here, hold sti long term because you want to hold on to Singapore dollars long term but then need to accept the fact that Singapore markets performance would always be mediocre compared to USA markets.

I keep hearing REITs can get better returns than STI but never really invested in those. Anybody here as any recommendation on REITs ? Does it make sense to hold some REITs as well in addition to STI
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Old 24-01-2020, 02:47 PM   #94
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As useful as what was quoted

If you say so, lol!
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Old 24-01-2020, 02:58 PM   #95
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https://mothership.sg/2020/01/china-lock-down-2-cities-wuhan/

This virus is spreading and there is no effective way to contain it... Singapore has its first confirmed case and it is a matter of time before other countries get affected. Peak Chinese travel season would highlight this risk. Those who are looking to buy dips thinking that it would pass would be taking on a big risk. The safer way to play this is when mkts stabilises and rebound after the danger has passed.

I have just had meetings with 2 clients who have substantial businesses in China (and elsewhere). They told me what is happening in China to their businesses (and associated businesses) so far as well as their views on what they think may happen from hereon.

Whilst I obviously cannot give details of what was said to me, I can only say that what you have said above definitely has merit and makes sense. After considering risk against reward, I have sold off stocks which will be directly affected by this virus contagion (should the contagion get worse).
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Old 24-01-2020, 03:11 PM   #96
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I have just had meetings with 2 clients who have substantial businesses in China (and elsewhere). They told me what is happening in China to their businesses (and associated businesses) so far as well as their views on what they think may happen from hereon.

Whilst I obviously cannot give details of what was said to me, I can only say that what you have said above definitely has merit and makes sense. After considering risk against reward, I have sold off stocks which will be directly affected by this virus contagion (should the contagion get worse).
If you have witnessed what happened during the SARS period, then it makes sense to be prudent. China is the epicentre and Asia is closest to it. And up to now, the Chinese has not been transparent... there is a disconnect between the number affected vs those that have been infected outside China as flagged by the media.

For US equities, they may be insulated somewhat.... at least until it becomes a global health concern.
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Old 24-01-2020, 06:25 PM   #97
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And we continue to climb higher for global equities
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Old 24-01-2020, 06:43 PM   #98
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And we continue to climb higher for global equities
I have been gradually reducing my US equities allocation for last 7 months.
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Old 24-01-2020, 06:51 PM   #99
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I have been gradually reducing my US equities allocation for last 7 months.
What is your allocation equities vs cash?
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Old 24-01-2020, 08:41 PM   #100
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What is your allocation equities vs cash?
stocks(US+SG) is 56% of stocks + cash
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Old 24-01-2020, 08:47 PM   #101
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stocks(US+SG) is 56% of stocks + cash
Thanks, your timing sense is generally good. All the best!
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Old 24-01-2020, 08:55 PM   #102
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Thanks, your timing sense is generally good. All the best!
There is no timing element there.

If my timing is good, I will put everything in Dec/18.

And sell on the next peak.

I am just doing ad hoc rebalancing. Buy gradually when market is down, sell gradually when market is up.
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Old 24-01-2020, 09:01 PM   #103
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CNBC: Trump again pushes negative interest rates, but Kudlow says they don't work.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/trum...dont-work.html

Negative rates 👍
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Old 24-01-2020, 09:42 PM   #104
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There is no timing element there.

If my timing is good, I will put everything in Dec/18.

And sell on the next peak.

I am just doing ad hoc rebalancing. Buy gradually when market is down, sell gradually when market is up.
What metric do you use to tell you when the market is down and when it is up?
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Old 24-01-2020, 10:08 PM   #105
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What metric do you use to tell you when the market is down and when it is up?
For the US market is the S&P or DOW. Isn't it?

This is also a good indicator of the market.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-...?iid=SF_INV_FG
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