Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

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DukeCS33

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Don't say good thing never share. Risk free 3.05% p.a. returns for USD Fixed Deposits. Slightly more than 10 Year US Treasury Bond. :s13:

https://www.cimbbank.com.sg/en/pers...promotions/accounts/cimb-efcfd-promotion.html

The catch is not to convert SGD to USD via interbank exchange rates. This is the bank's gimmick because interbank exchange rates sucks. :s13:

It would be ideal if you already had a USD account with CIMB. Just deposit a local cheque in USD to your CIMB USD account. Problem solved. :D

CASH IS KING. I have been saying it for years when Fed starts to normalise. The main reason why stocks are plunging is because for the first time in 10 years cash is generating a decent and risk free return. Many pension funds are rebalancing their portfolio.

Just you wait and see the real estate mortgage loan defaults will be the hot topic in 2019.


That's a very good FD rate.


With Fed hiking and shrinking its balance sheet, stocks should take a hit. Past 10 years, stocks were on QE steroids - party is over. And that's why I am bearish on US and emerging equity markets. I have never seen a breakdown in this relationship so far - when rates goes up, stocks tumble and vice versa.
 

Mr.Canberra

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That's a very good FD rate.

With Fed hiking and shrinking its balance sheet, stocks should take a hit. Past 10 years, stocks were on QE steroids - party is over. And that's why I am bearish on US and emerging equity markets. I have never seen a breakdown in this relationship so far - when rates goes up, stocks tumble and vice versa.

During QE phase getting credit is cheap so can leverage up and load up assets. Once credit gets costly the inverse happens.

We are probably only 3/4 into the QT phase.
 

MikeDirnt78

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And that's why I am bearish on US and emerging equity markets. I have never seen a breakdown in this relationship so far - when rates goes up, stocks tumble and vice versa.

You should study the historical trend.

2002 to 2007, interest rates were rising but stocks continued to climb.

A rising interest rate is not necessarily bad for stocks.
 

Mr.Canberra

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You should study the historical trend.

2002 to 2007, interest rates were rising but stocks continued to climb.

A rising interest rate is not necessarily bad for stocks.

QE is a new experiment by Ben Bernanke after the GFC 2008. For the past 10 years the stock market is artificially propped up by the Fed with asset purchases but now is in reverse mode (QT).
 
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DukeCS33

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You should study the historical trend.

2002 to 2007, interest rates were rising but stocks continued to climb.

A rising interest rate is not necessarily bad for stocks.

Yes I would agree and stand corrected - it really depends on the economic cycle and stock's relative position. What I meant was a tightening of liquidity from balance sheet tightening.
 

MikeDirnt78

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QE is a new experiment by Ben Bernanke after the GFC 2008. For the past 10 years the stock market is artificially propped up by the Fed with asset purchases but now is in reverse mode (QT).

You did not get the cause and effect correct.

QE was introduced to beef up the economy.

Stocks went up because valuations were attractive and economy was stronger.

FED can do reverse QE because they know the economy is stronger now.
 

revhappy

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You did not get the cause and effect correct.

QE was introduced to beef up the economy.

Stocks went up because valuations were attractive and economy was stronger.

FED can do reverse QE because they know the economy is stronger now.

The economy and markets are disconnected. Markets rose a lot while the economy was pathetic, you remember those days when they said bad news is good news for the stocks? The markets rose only because bad economy meant cheap money for stocks to go up. It is only recently that the US economy has been doing well and stocks had gone really out of whack. Now, as QT happens, the economy moderates a bit, but stocks have a long way to fall. I think that is the narrative. I am not certain that will happen, but there is a good chance.
 

Mr.Canberra

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You did not get the cause and effect correct.

QE was introduced to beef up the economy.

Stocks went up because valuations were attractive and economy was stronger.

FED can do reverse QE because they know the economy is stronger now.

Stocks at all time high after QE artificially propped up the markets. So naturally the markets retreat when QE withdraws + rate hike.

This QE experiment (artificial asset inflation) has never been done before and nobody knows what the end result will be. What I do know is the combined QE by 3 major central banks pioneered by the Fed will have some consequences sooner or later by keeping zombie companies alive.

this person is Mr Canberra lol

Haha funny video. :s13:
 
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MikeDirnt78

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The economy and markets are disconnected. Markets rose a lot while the economy was pathetic, you remember those days when they said bad news is good news for the stocks? The markets rose only because bad economy meant cheap money for stocks to go up. It is only recently that the US economy has been doing well and stocks had gone really out of whack. Now, as QT happens, the economy moderates a bit, but stocks have a long way to fall. I think that is the narrative. I am not certain that will happen, but there is a good chance.

Try not to overthink too much.

The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. This study has been done before.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/541/economics/relationship-between-stock-market-and-economy/

Stock market can go down if they become overvalued or market participants think that the economy is going to slow down in the forseeable future.
 

DukeCS33

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share ur system pls

Trading is live; system is dead. And one's retail or diy system cannot adapt to changing market conditions. If one master basic price / volume reading / support and resistance and trendlines, it would be good enough to trade all types of market conditions.
If a system can predict the future, we do not need active fund managers or passive index investing. That said, there are now systems with some AI built in... Singapore's Quantedge has been delivering market leading gains.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantedge

But can you stomach the volatility? The pnl swing can be 40% - You can lose 40% of your capital over a very short period of time when things get volatile.

This is an exceptional system fund and is not the norm.
 

Mr. Wood

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Back to normal? :s13:

Wed Jan 2
5:30pm GBP Manufacturing PMI

Thu Jan 3
9:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
11:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Fri Jan 4
5:30pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
GBP Services PMI
6:00pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
9:30pm CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate
CAD RMPI m/m
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
11:15pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

now days listen to uncle J speak no more satki. must also listen to the follow up tweets. :s13:
 
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