Noble Group *Official* (SGX: CGP)

Keverus

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For my own case study, if you are willing to share here, at what price you shorted? I would short if it goes below 0.63.

i shorted one tranche at 0.685, another tranche at 0.665.

today just before closing, shorted one small tranche at 0.645.

my TP is 0.62.
 

Sai777

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Thank you ctstalin and keverus.

0.685 is a good catch.

I cannot spot 0.665, 0.66 or 0.645. Presumely you all work on a shorter time frame. TP 0.62 is realistic.

Wish all who followed huat big big.......:D:D:D:D
 

Obama486

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Noble Group Ltd: Hits 6-year low
Noble Group (Noble) recently saw a sharp pullback in its share price to hit a six-year low of S$0.64; this as sentiment is likely weighed by the on-going uncertainty over its accounting practices as well as the weaker outlook for commodities in general. Although there was a spate of insider and institutional buying over the past two weeks, it did little to prop up the share price. And with the cautious outlook likely to persist, we now reduce our valuation peg on the stock from 13.5x to 8x (1 SD below the 10-year average) FY15F EPS, and this reduces our fair value from S$1.05 to S$0.61. We are retaining our HOLD rating as current valuations are not pricey on a historical basis as Noble now trades at just 0.7x book value. (Carey Wong)
 

Sai777

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Noble Group Ltd: Hits 6-year low
Noble Group (Noble) recently saw a sharp pullback in its share price to hit a six-year low of S$0.64; this as sentiment is likely weighed by the on-going uncertainty over its accounting practices as well as the weaker outlook for commodities in general. Although there was a spate of insider and institutional buying over the past two weeks, it did little to prop up the share price. And with the cautious outlook likely to persist, we now reduce our valuation peg on the stock from 13.5x to 8x (1 SD below the 10-year average) FY15F EPS, and this reduces our fair value from S$1.05 to S$0.61. We are retaining our HOLD rating as current valuations are not pricey on a historical basis as Noble now trades at just 0.7x book value. (Carey Wong)

Is Carey Wong just taking figure from the book and conclude as fair value? The PB 0.7 come from existing accounting that overvalued Yancoal 30x which investors do not have the answer. Sure it is a fair value by just conveniently ignoring that. Secondly a PE of 34 is high even at current price.

Just my layman opinion.
 

TinyPocoyo

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Is Carey Wong just taking figure from the book and conclude as fair value? The PB 0.7 come from existing accounting that overvalued Yancoal 30x which investors do not have the answer. Sure it is a fair value by just conveniently ignoring that. Secondly a PE of 34 is high even at current price.

Just my layman opinion.

yup u are right. if use iceberg valuation it is 10cent :s13::o
 

Obama486

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Is Carey Wong just taking figure from the book and conclude as fair value? The PB 0.7 come from existing accounting that overvalued Yancoal 30x which investors do not have the answer. Sure it is a fair value by just conveniently ignoring that. Secondly a PE of 34 is high even at current price.

Just my layman opinion.

different people different views ma, that's why got buyers and sellers, bears and bulls hahaha

he is a professional analyst, so many will read his report
however for investors, best to do your own homework and form your own views
 

Milo-Dino

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Is Carey Wong just taking figure from the book and conclude as fair value? The PB 0.7 come from existing accounting that overvalued Yancoal 30x which investors do not have the answer. Sure it is a fair value by just conveniently ignoring that. Secondly a PE of 34 is high even at current price.

Just my layman opinion.
isn't yancoal just a small part of noble?

besides, noble's main commodities are metals and oil&gas
 

Sai777

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Noble does not directly own Yancoal; it is through its subsidery Gloucester with complex share exchange and hence 13.7% of Yancoal.

My disclaimier is that I dun understand Noble business model and supply chain, it is as complex as Olam. I did not read Iceberg report in details.

Yancoal is valued at $322m; its stock price has plunge close to 90% and it is trading at A$0.16 today when Noble had it at around A$1.10-1.18 (Forex was 1:1.3 in 2012)

Market Cap for Noble is about $4.356b. So Yancoal technically has 7.39% of market cap if Yancoal is value 30x.

So Yancoal is not a small matter.

I believe Iceberg has scientific analytic to the subject.
 

Milo-Dino

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Noble does not directly own Yancoal; it is through its subsidery Gloucester with complex share exchange and hence 13.7% of Yancoal.

My disclaimier is that I dun understand Noble business model and supply chain, it is as complex as Olam. I did not read Iceberg report in details.

Yancoal is valued at $322m; its stock price has plunge close to 90% and it is trading at A$0.16 today when Noble had it at around A$1.10-1.18 (Forex was 1:1.3 in 2012)

Market Cap for Noble is about $4.356b. So Yancoal technically has 7.39% of market cap if Yancoal is value 30x.

So Yancoal is not a small matter.

I believe Iceberg has scientific analytic to the subject.
hmm yancoal has just slightly less than 1bn shares

based on AU$1.10 * 1.3 (former rate) *13.7% * 1bn shares = market value that time S$196million

of Noble's S$4.4bn current share cap, that's 4.5%... anything less than 5% is not material to me... and that's assuming yancoal is totally written off.

Noble's agrument is that the trading liquidity is too thin thus market price is not reflective (which is true for some cases)

Anyways, I not vested.. but i'm waiting for a right time to go long on either its shares or warrant
 

bobbytkc

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Is Yancoal the only controversy or is Noble cooking the books in some other way as well?
 

cloudfire

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What price or signs will you consider entry???

hmm yancoal has just slightly less than 1bn shares

based on AU$1.10 * 1.3 (former rate) *13.7% * 1bn shares = market value that time S$196million

of Noble's S$4.4bn current share cap, that's 4.5%... anything less than 5% is not material to me... and that's assuming yancoal is totally written off.

Noble's agrument is that the trading liquidity is too thin thus market price is not reflective (which is true for some cases)

Anyways, I not vested.. but i'm waiting for a right time to go long on either its shares or warrant
 
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