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QAF Limited *Official* (SGX: Q01)

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Old 15-04-2012, 01:28 PM   #1
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QAF Limited *Official* (SGX: Q01)

Rise about 27% since Oct 2011

Only vested it recently and that was before they announced the 4cents dividend book closure date.

Anyone vested in it also?
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Old 16-04-2012, 05:40 PM   #2
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on my watch list

Yield Stocks
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Old 16-04-2012, 06:00 PM   #3
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This bread company is my star performer this year. Went in and out since end of last year. Today sold off remaining lots at 73.5c. Made total of $17,380 from this counter alone. But still in the red with YTD realised gain of $50k.
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Old 16-04-2012, 07:13 PM   #4
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Wonder how much can it go up to before XD. Haha
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Old 16-04-2012, 07:14 PM   #5
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This share been gaining 1cents each market day after announcing the dividend book closure date.
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Old 17-04-2012, 05:18 PM   #6
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This share been gaining 1cents each market day after announcing the dividend book closure date.
If you hadn't bought, you probably missed the boat. It could still climb a little more if the coming quarter result is good.

I could have gross another 2800 had I sold today instead of ytd. But no regret as it has reached my target price. I reconsider this counter after xd.
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Old 18-04-2012, 12:05 PM   #7
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QAF gain 4.6% or $0.035 till now from opening.

sold all my lots at 0.79. but it climb up to 0.805. could have gain somemore if i can predict. but that's how unexpected it is. haha
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Old 18-04-2012, 02:20 PM   #8
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Great performance this year but hard to get excited from here. Have to say that this is one of those names where people fell in love with the divvies without looking closely at the earnings

Ratios look decent: Trading at ~S$0.80, PB 1.1x, PE 6.7x, PS 0.4x - all don't look too expensive. Earnings in FY11 +22% to S$0.116 from S$0.10. Div yield still at 6.5% despite the rally. Cash of S$74m (S$0.14/sh) vs debt of S$107 (S$0.20/sh) - not great but not that stretched either.

However, hidden in the earnings is the fact that the company had a writeback of a provision allowance from doubtful debt that was sold - this was S$21m in total (vs S$6m in FY10). Absent this S$15m ($0.028/sh), earnings would actually have dropped. Company says that all this provisioning and writebacks are likely done.

Taking away this income, we are looking at recurring earnings of ~S$0.076/share, of which they paid out $0.05 for divvies = 65% payout ratio which to me seems quite high.

Also, colour me unconvinced when it comes to a bread company beating inflation at the moment. If you look at the segmental reporting ex investments (bakery,production,trading/logistics) pre-tax, the company actually saw a fall in numbers of about 10%. Hard to see them raising prices dramatically with the economy faltering, and am not willing to bet on investment income doing better than expected again. Will have to watch the insider buying to see how that goes (they bought shares at the end of 2H11 so that should have been a good sign).

If earnings fall, hard to see them increasing the payout ratio again to keep divvies at S$0.05. Thus, I think the great run has been fuelled by investors solely looking at dividend yieds and not the quality of earnings. I am not good with short-term stuff but RSI seems overbought although we may see further appreciation ahead of the payout.

Any thoughts/comments? It takes 2 sides to make a market!
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Old 18-04-2012, 04:51 PM   #9
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Surprisingly, it reached 80.5c. I let go at 73.5 as I thougt at best could reached 77c cd.
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Old 18-04-2012, 05:07 PM   #10
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Surprisingly, it reached 80.5c. I let go at 73.5 as I thougt at best could reached 77c cd.
drop back to 0.78 at closing.

trade summary for today! wait until XD then whack again.

Price Trades Volume Sold to Buyer Mid Bought from Seller
0.770 140 1,444,000 915,000 26,000 503,000
0.775 36 1,006,000 353,000 0 653,000
0.780 44 1,027,000 132,000 0 895,000
0.785 126 1,757,000 759,000 29,000 969,000
0.790 101 1,095,000 324,000 0 771,000
0.795 71 1,460,000 703,000 5,000 752,000
0.800 59 1,146,000 601,000 0 545,000
0.805 19 520,000 0 0 520,000
TOTAL 596 9,455,000 3,787,000 60,000 5,608,000
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Old 18-04-2012, 05:09 PM   #11
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but still another gain of 1.5cent from yesterday price.

wait for Monday to see! haha
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Old 23-04-2012, 07:11 PM   #12
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Stock off 3.9% to $0.75 today pre-results announcement. 1Q12 EPS down 1.9cents (about 67% yoy) even though revenues were up 8% yoy. Haven't checked the historical seasonality of the stock but last year the company booked about 50% of its EPS in 1Q12, so this big decline can't be a positive.

The two key things that I noted as concerns in my response below were highlighted by the company:

1. They noted that the reason for the decline in profit was due to the write-back of allowance of doubtful debt of $21.4m in 1Q11. Excluding this from 1Q11 earnings the company would have seen PBT grow slightly.

2. Bakery operations (largest part of their revenues) saw a decline in profit contribution due to increased competition. Inflation was not as big a factor as I expected, but the group also was affcted by high costs of diesel and utilities due to high international oil prices.

With today's drop, PB back to 1x, PS 0.4x; however 12m trailing PE is 9.6x which does not look as attractive as before. On the bright side, company's guidance is good - plans for further sales growth and an 'encouraging' level of profitability in FY12.

My view - margins probably grow from here but can't see them paying the same level of dividends out with the lower overall profitability. Net debt now higher, to 37m from 33m in just 1 quarter. Also, I think we have to worry about their trading and logisitics business with higher fuel costs.

Hope this is useful, if others like it I will continue to keep tabs on the stock.
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Old 15-10-2012, 03:48 PM   #13
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today hit high of $0.83
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Old 15-10-2012, 04:16 PM   #14
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Today all the roti/biscuit companies having a good day... Khong Guan, Auric...
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Old 15-10-2012, 08:33 PM   #15
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Like $0.83
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