Excellent talk by Howard Marks...
All investors should watch and more so for mavericks than defensive investors...
1) Increase investment when price is low
2) Reduce investment when price is high
3) Aim for highest return but Watch your investment risks and allocations
I am trying to digest his talk and learn how to play the stock market based on market cycles, some key take away:
1) Increase investment when price is low
2) Reduce investment when price is high
3) Aim for highest return but Watch your investment risks and allocations
Thanks for pointing out the obvious
Actually the difficulty is about determining the intrinsic value? If you can't, then not possible to gauge whether undervalue or overvalued
Prior to this book, Howard has The Most Important Thing(btw it's on Youtube). Before that Stan Weinstein's strategy is to spot the lows and the longer low the better. Well... most of these stocks never recover, either gone bust or went private. It's not easy to spot the cycle.
Wait for the 2008 event and all-in in 2009 event. Or even Trump's 2017.
Obvious? Ok, I didn't realize that.
Thought this is not obvious to 2 groups of people:
1) Kiasi ones, price drop so much still waiting for price to drop further.
2) "long-term" investors, keep buying whenever they have money despite stock bubble (like now).
Read this book, it's more detailed than Marks' comments (or read his book too) regarding market cycles - they delve into industry/sector cycles.
https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Returns-Investing-Through-Managers/dp/1137571640
Thanks..any other books in similar fashion?
I'm tracking fed balance.
Since 2017 December fed keep pulling out money of capital market.
There is no way interest rate cut is coming until they stop the quantitative tightening.
Just won't make sense as a policy maker to do rate cut and quantitative tightening at the same time.
Thanks..any other books in similar fashion?
I'm tracking fed balance.
Since 2017 December fed keep pulling out money of capital market.
There is no way interest rate cut is coming until they stop the quantitative tightening.
Just won't make sense as a policy maker to do rate cut and quantitative tightening at the same time.
According to fed plans, they will stop reducing the balance sheets from this sep 2019.Thanks..any other books in similar fashion?
I'm tracking fed balance.
Since 2017 December fed keep pulling out money of capital market.
There is no way interest rate cut is coming until they stop the quantitative tightening.
Just won't make sense as a policy maker to do rate cut and quantitative tightening at the same time.