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The Structure Of Market Cycles and How To Get The Odds In Your Favour

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Old 15-07-2019, 12:57 AM   #1
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The Structure Of Market Cycles and How To Get The Odds In Your Favour

Excellent talk by Howard Marks...
All investors should watch and more so for mavericks than defensive investors...

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Old 15-07-2019, 09:19 AM   #2
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Excellent talk, thanks for sharing!

I am trying to digest his talk and learn how to play the stock market based on market cycles, some key take away:

1) Increase investment when price is low
2) Reduce investment when price is high
3) Aim for highest return but Watch your investment risks and allocations

Excellent talk by Howard Marks...
All investors should watch and more so for mavericks than defensive investors...

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Old 15-07-2019, 10:37 AM   #3
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Read this book, it's more detailed than Marks' comments (or read his book too) regarding market cycles - they delve into industry/sector cycles.

https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Retur.../dp/1137571640
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Old 15-07-2019, 11:43 AM   #4
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1) Increase investment when price is low
2) Reduce investment when price is high
3) Aim for highest return but Watch your investment risks and allocations
I 100% agree that we should buy more when price is low!
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Old 15-07-2019, 06:46 PM   #5
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I am trying to digest his talk and learn how to play the stock market based on market cycles, some key take away:

1) Increase investment when price is low
2) Reduce investment when price is high
3) Aim for highest return but Watch your investment risks and allocations
Thanks for pointing out the obvious
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Old 15-07-2019, 09:35 PM   #6
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Obvious? Ok, I didn't realize that.
Thought this is not obvious to 2 groups of people:

1) Kiasi ones, price drop so much still waiting for price to drop further.

2) "long-term" investors, keep buying whenever they have money despite stock bubble (like now).

Thanks for pointing out the obvious
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Old 16-07-2019, 07:04 AM   #7
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Actually the difficulty is about determining the intrinsic value? If you can't, then not possible to gauge whether undervalue or overvalued
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Old 16-07-2019, 09:53 AM   #8
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Prior to this book, Howard has The Most Important Thing(btw it's on Youtube). Before that Stan Weinstein's strategy is to spot the lows and the longer low the better. Well... most of these stocks never recover, either gone bust or went private. It's not easy to spot the cycle.
Wait for the 2008 event and all-in in 2009 event. Or even Trump's 2017.
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Old 16-07-2019, 02:11 PM   #9
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waiting for trump to slap tariffs on another 300 billion of chinese products
sooner the better. this will cause recession in singapore and i can buy bank stocks for cheap
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Old 16-07-2019, 10:37 PM   #10
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Actually the difficulty is about determining the intrinsic value? If you can't, then not possible to gauge whether undervalue or overvalued
Actually, an easy and lazy man's way is to take the NAV in the current financial report and compare with it past 5 years' one... If it is trending upwards, it's a good sign, if it's downwards, be very wary... Most importantly, the current stock price should not be double the NAV... in fact, it shouldn't go higher than the NAV by more than 5%...

If the company doesn't have NAV in the report, take the total asset - total liabilities and divide the answer by the total number of outstanding shares in the stock market...

But then again it all depends on the company's leadership... if you suay, the leadership change during the financial year and the new guys sucks, the stock and NAV can tank also so the most important advise is still know when to cut lost and know when to hold, don't love the stock, you're not in a relationship with it...

My 2.14 cents...
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Old 16-07-2019, 11:01 PM   #11
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Prior to this book, Howard has The Most Important Thing(btw it's on Youtube). Before that Stan Weinstein's strategy is to spot the lows and the longer low the better. Well... most of these stocks never recover, either gone bust or went private. It's not easy to spot the cycle.
Wait for the 2008 event and all-in in 2009 event. Or even Trump's 2017.
Which stocks did Weinstein recommended?
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Old 17-07-2019, 12:12 AM   #12
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Stan Weinstein never made recommendation in his book. He did use stock charts illustration.
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Old 17-07-2019, 01:01 AM   #13
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Obvious? Ok, I didn't realize that.
Thought this is not obvious to 2 groups of people:

1) Kiasi ones, price drop so much still waiting for price to drop further.

2) "long-term" investors, keep buying whenever they have money despite stock bubble (like now).
Robert kiyosaki kind of rich Dad poor Dad book.

Give u idea and nothing detail in practical execution.
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Old 17-07-2019, 01:07 AM   #14
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Read this book, it's more detailed than Marks' comments (or read his book too) regarding market cycles - they delve into industry/sector cycles.

https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Retur.../dp/1137571640
Thanks..any other books in similar fashion?

I'm tracking fed balance.
Since 2017 December fed keep pulling out money of capital market.

There is no way interest rate cut is coming until they stop the quantitative tightening.

Just won't make sense as a policy maker to do rate cut and quantitative tightening at the same time.
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Old 18-07-2019, 09:07 AM   #15
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Thanks..any other books in similar fashion?

I'm tracking fed balance.
Since 2017 December fed keep pulling out money of capital market.

There is no way interest rate cut is coming until they stop the quantitative tightening.

Just won't make sense as a policy maker to do rate cut and quantitative tightening at the same time.
Not that I know of apart from random memos from other investors, gotta know how to dig and find.

It's almost impossible to predict central bank movements, so I don't bother. Look at the Fed, BOJ, ECB and SNB in the recent years
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