Thai Beverage *Official* (SGX:Y92)

asdjajk

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actually now is a good time into this counter as they will benefit from the payout by F&N and they could use the money for other investment to make profit..
 

Departure81

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Kinda surprised that this counter and F&N are receiving so little attention, with the takeover offer and all. Currently vested, 100 lots at .38 last week and another 50 lots .41 on Friday!
 

Departure81

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Dividend in baht? 370 baht only? Convert to sg equal nothing much liao.. can only wait for capital growth

At current price, yield is around 3.5%. CIMB target price is currently at $.060. Personally I plan to hold this long term, so I'm collecting now.
 

flyfox

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but why the price keeps dropping from highest of 0.440 to 0.395?

The volume is quite small as well on Friday and many stocks appreciate too right?
 

Departure81

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but why the price keeps dropping from highest of 0.440 to 0.395?

The volume is quite small as well on Friday and many stocks appreciate too right?

Scare the F&N deal fall through lor. A lot of people taking profit too. Then got some waiting to see if deal will be successful. But if you believe in this company, if drop, can collect lor.
 

flyfox

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btw, when F & N hits and closes at 8.88 (e.g yesterday's closing) , isit possible for for the ThBev to buy over the shares?
 

flyfox

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Advice to F&N investors of limited help
by Conrad Raj
04:45 AM Oct 18, 2012
When gauging the merits of a takeover offer, shareholders would hope for clear advice from the independent assessors employed to weigh its pros and cons.

However, in the case of the bid by Thai whiskey king Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi for Fraser and Neave, investors have been left little wiser.

The advice, provided by JP Morgan, presents shareholders with something of a Hobson's choice. Saying that the offer is "not compelling, though fair" is not very helpful for those unsure about what to do with their shares. And investors interested in the future prospects of the company with Mr Charoen, already a significant shareholder, have been left in the dark.

The recommendation to shareholders who think they cannot get a better price is to either sell all or part of their shares on the open market or accept the offer from Mr Charoen's takeover vehicle, TCC Assets.

For those who think the offer is not compelling, the advisers tell them to hold on to some or all their shares, but there is no guarantee that there would be a market for these shares if the offer is successful.

The advisers value F&N's shares at between S$8.30 and S$11.22 each, placing the offer price of S$8.88 at the lower end of the range.

On their part, F&N's nine-member board - who all consider themselves independent for this offer - agree with JP Morgan that the offer is "not compelling, though fair".

However, those directors who are also shareholders are not accepting the offer unless it becomes unconditional, which indicates they do not find the offer is "compelling".

The board also points out that the premiums over historical prices "may not fully reflect the realised value of S$5.6 billion" for the sale of F&N's stake in Asia Pacific Breweries.

It also notes that the bottom end of JP Morgan's valuation of F&N's property business grossly undervalues the asset by giving it an implied value of S$2.56 billion at a 48 per cent discount compared with S$3.46 billion if a 30 per cent discount was used as is usual for comparable companies.

Furthermore, the board points out the value of the company's 55 per cent controlling stake in its Myanmar brewery is also grossly undervalued at S$211 million, or 7.1 times the attributable profit for the 12 months to the end of June this year. The board feels it should be worth at least three times that amount if comparable multiples for other breweries were used.

The board said the Myanmar brewery is "a unique asset, with a leadership position in the Myanmar beer market, at a time when Myanmar is attracting foreign investor interest with the recent positive and economic developments in the country". The F&N brewery also produces the country's best-selling brew and has potential for growth in a country with a population of over 60 million.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan pointed out that its terms of reference did not require it to express an opinion on the future growth prospects of the company or the F&N Group. But that is key information that would undoubtedly help shareholders make an informed investment decision.

In particular, shareholders will need to assess what Mr Charoen and his companies can bring to F&N, given that they already own 33.5 per cent of the Singapore company.

Even if the takeover offer does not go through, Mr Charoen will want to safeguard and grow his investment, for which he has already paid over S$3 billion.

He has similar businesses to F&N, such as property and food and beverage, although not on the same scale. And he depends on the domestic market for most of his sales while F&N has more of an ASEAN footprint.

And if Japan's Kirin continues to be a substantial shareholder (it currently has a 14.7 per cent stake in F&N), it could work with Mr Charoen's ThaiBev to find more synergies to grow the Singapore company way beyond its present boundaries.

These are some of the things that JP Morgan could have been asked to explore and give advice on.

As it stands, though, F&N investors, unless they are desperate for the money, might be better off holding on to their stakes and riding their fortunes with the new shareholders.





Conrad Raj is Editor-at-Large at TODAY.
 

flyfox

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Anyone else vested? Today high of 0.445. Tempted to partial sell..

I was thinking of buying again , i wonder if its too high, and the volume isnt high enough to justify the bullish-ness.

RSI is around 70+, kinda overbought?

anyone mind sharing? and give your opinions, should i buy ThBev ?
 

Departure81

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I was thinking of buying again , i wonder if its too high, and the volume isnt high enough to justify the bullish-ness.

RSI is around 70+, kinda overbought?

anyone mind sharing? and give your opinions, should i buy ThBev ?

Volume isn't high? It's been really high lately! It's been steady going up, not one shot shoot up, so I think can sustain. I got 200 lots. And all making quite a lot. Regret that time 38 cents never add more.
 
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