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Old 22-06-2019, 01:10 PM   #76
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Old 26-06-2019, 09:00 PM   #77
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[quote from sure dividend newsletter]

Investing can be unnecessarily complicated. There's an incredible amount of highly intelligent and educated people who make a living in the investing industry.

With all that intellectual horsepower applied to investing over the last 100+ years, a thick haze of terms and acronyms surround the industry.

No, you don't need to know how to calculate the Omega Ratio or what exactly EBITDARM stands for to be a successful investor.

Instead of playing the complexity game, you can focus on what you actually need from your investments. Namely, reliable and rising income.

At the end of the day, that's why the vast majority of people invest. We want to make enough money from our assets to provide a reliable income stream throughout the remainder of our lives. And hopefully that income stream continues for our descendants after we are gone.

When you think about investing this way, it is clear that dividend income deserves our attention, not esoteric investing terms and ratios.

This takes us back to one of the fathers of intrinsic value and what I would call rational investing - John Burr Williams.

Williams believed that the value of a stock (or any investment) was ultimately the amount of money you could get out of it over time, discounted at an appropriate interest rate. In other words, dividend income and capital gains are where returns come from.

And sense market prices are largely determined by sentiment in the short-term, dividend income is where investors have the most control over their returns.

He saw through the 'mirage' of earnings for publicly traded companies. Note that if you 100% own a company, you can distribute earnings to yourself. But if you don't (as in investing in the stock market), then you don't actually get earnings - you only get what the company decides to distribute.

"Earnings are a means to an end and the means should not be mistaken for the ends. In short, a stock is worth only what you can get out of it."
- John Burr Williams
The following poem by John Burr Williams eloquently sums up the common-sense idea of focusing on dividend income while investing:

"Even so, the old farmer said to his son:
A cow for her milk, A hen for her eggs,
And a stock, by heck, for its dividends.
An orchard for fruit, Bees for their honey,
And stocks, besides, for their dividends.
The old man knew where milk and honey came from, but he made no such mistake as to tell his son to buy a cow for her cud or bees for their buzz.”

Buying stocks in hopes that they will appreciate in the future is like buying bees for their buzz. It's little more than speculation in many cases.

At Sure Dividend, we recommend investing in:
  • High quality dividend growth stocks
  • Trading at fair or better prices
  • With strong expected total returns
  • For the long run

[end quote]
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Old 27-06-2019, 05:00 PM   #78
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[quote from sure dividend newsletter]

The goal of retirement investing is to replace your working income with a sustainable passive income stream.

And the reality of our monetary system means that income stream can't just be static, it must grow by at least the rate of inflation.

To build a growing retirement income stream that lasts, you must invest in a reasonably diversified basket of income securities that have the following characteristics:
  1. Pay dividends (create income), the higher the yield the better
  2. Are likely to grow their payments, the faster the better
  3. Are priced at or below fair value, to protect your principle
  4. Have safe dividends, so you are likely to see stable or better income during a recession

Said another way, suitable retirement investments are safe, growing income securities trading at or below fair value.

At this point you may be nodding your head about what makes a suitable income security, but be wondering just what 'reasonably diversified' means.

By reasonable diversification, we mean a portfolio of 20 to 30 securities. Common sense should be used to spread these securities across different sectors as well.

Interestingly, the benefits of diversification decline significantly after just 12 to 18 holdings. Additionally, there are actually disadvantages to being extremely diversified. When over diversified, you have more money in your 50th or 100th or 200th best idea instead of investing that money into your current best idea.

“Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little
sense for those who know what they’re doing.”
- Warren Buffett
What will determine your success in building a retirement portfolio of for rising income is the actual securities you decide to invest in.

[end quote]
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Old 29-06-2019, 08:56 AM   #79
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Old 29-06-2019, 08:58 AM   #80
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Old 29-06-2019, 09:00 AM   #81
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some of u guys might think dividends growth is too slow
i'm sure there are free stuffs on the internet
just hav to spend some time to google.

stop wasting money and time on fake gurus trading/investing course sellers.
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Old 29-06-2019, 10:09 PM   #82
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[quote frm sure dividend newsletter]

“Under conditions of complexity, not only are checklists a help, they are required for success.”
- Atul Gawande, The Cheklist Manifesto

When you get right down to it, there's a great deal of complexity for selecting securities for your retirement income portfolio.

This email includes a concise checklist for identifying suitable retirement investment securities. This greatly simplifies and speeds up the process of finding the right securities for your portfolio.

Without further ado, the checklist is below.

Criteria #1: Dividend Yield
Any security you consider should have a yield at least equal to the threshold yield you need in your retirement portfolio. If you require a 4% yield, the securities you look at should yield 4% or more. This builds in a margin of safety as you only add securities at or above your minimum yield threshold.

Note 1: To find the minimum yield you require from your portfolio, first find your average monthly expenses over a year. Then subtract out income you receive from alternate sources, like social security. Divide your expenses less other income number by your portfolio size to determine your yield threshold.

Note 2: If you aren't yet in retirement and are building your portfolio, determine your minimum yield threshold by estimating your portfolio size and expenses on your expected retirement date, and work backwards. There's greater flexibility here, so an absolute yield threshold isn't as critical. For a rule of thumb, a 3% yield threshold for those building a dividend growth portfolio leaves plenty of quality dividend growth options while maintaining a reasonably high portfolio yield.

Criteria #2: Dividend Safety
A dividend that isn't likely to continue into the future simply can't be relied upon. For dividend safety, we recommend that a security you are considering match the following requirements:
  • Payout ratio under 90% at a minimum, and preferably much lower
  • No dividend reduction during The Great Recession
  • Ability to easily service debt
  • Dividend covered by cash flows and earnings
These minimum criteria will help you avoid securities likely to reduce their dividend relatively soon. The most important factor, by far, is the payout ratio. The lower the payout ratio, the better. A 90% payout ratio is only secure for the most stable business models. A payout ratio well under this is much preferable.

Criteria #3: Dividend Growth
A stagnant dividend is not acceptable. The reality of inflation means that the purchasing power of a stagnant dividend is actually declining. Any security in which you invest should be expected to grow its dividend at least at the rate of inflation going forward, and preferably significantly faster.

Looking at historical dividend-per-share and earnings-per-share growth, as well as expected earnings-per-share growth and dividend-per-share growth in the future is a good way to get comfortable with a securities dividend growth.

A long history of steadily rising dividends is also a very good sign that future dividend growth is likely. Looking at the earnings stability of a security also helps to know if it will be able to pay rising dividends throughout the economic cycle.

Criteria #4: Portfolio Fit
Does the security fit in your portfolio? If half of the securities in your portfolio are in the energy sector, then it makes little sense to add another energy sector security. The exact portfolio weight limit for any sector is up to the individual investor, but something in the 25% range to 35% (for stable sectors like consumer staples) makes sense in our view.

Criteria #5: Individual Fit
Is the security right for you? Some people feel uncomfortable investing in tobacco companies. Others may feel uncomfortable with some big health companies or consumer staple securities that sell addictive and sugary products. If a company doesn't agree with your ethics, don't invest in it.

Second, if a security is outside your circle of competence, then skip it. By this, we mean if its business model is too difficult to understand. If you don't really understand how a business makes money then you are less likely to hold during down periods as you won't be able to diagnose if the issue the security is facing is temporary or permanent. It's better to avoid these situations than pretend we 'know it all'.

Criteria #6: Valuation
Is the security trading at or below fair value? Investing in securities trading above fair value puts your capital at risk because the security is likely to 'mean revert' to its historical fair value over time, causing losses.

In general, we prefer to invest in securities trading below their 10 year historical average price-to-earnings ratio. One should assess fair value first, and then invest only when the security in question is trading at or below fair value.

Criteria #7: Expected Total Returns

Finally, we recommend investors look for securities with high expected total returns, and screen out securities with lower expected total returns.

Expected total returns are calculated as the sum of valuation multiple change, growth on a per share basis, and dividend yield.

We recommend investing in securities with expected total returns of 10% or greater. The market has historically averaged total returns of ~9% a year. Investing in securities with expected total returns lower than the market's long-term historical average makes little sense when one could simply get greater diversification benefits from a broad market fund.

Putting It All Together
The seven criteria checklist above will generate a portfolio of safe and growing high yield securities trading at fair or better prices with solid and better expected total return potential.

[end quote]
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Old 30-06-2019, 12:18 PM   #83
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just a question. with the 30% withholding tax in place you think US dividend companies are worth it?
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Old 30-06-2019, 12:37 PM   #84
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just a question. with the 30% withholding tax in place you think US dividend companies are worth it?
if only for dividends, no.
STI can give about 3% dividends tax free. the best STI companies give about 5%.

but strong dividend US companies are more likely to outperform SG companies over long run, so u not only get higher dividends, but also capital gains, which is non taxable.
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Old 30-06-2019, 12:41 PM   #85
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many course sellers like to make fun of "long term investors"
i do not think buy and hold and reinvest dividends is a bad thing.
Warren Buffett buys and hold almost forever for the VERY long term.

please understand dat course sellers are just dat. course sellers. they are selling u fake dreams can make 20% returns, can recover course fees in one trade, can retire early.

if they are so good, they wud hav been head hunted by SWF or fund houses to trade. no?
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Old 01-07-2019, 12:24 PM   #86
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[quote frm sure dividend newsletter]

The Warren Buffett Approach To Income Investing

Warren Buffett is arguably the most successful investor of all time. His $80+ billion net worth speaks to how effective his investing methods have been. Interestingly, the bulk of securities in Buffett's portfolio today are dividend growth stocks.

Buffett's Top 8 holdings make up 75% of his portfolio. Each of these holdings along with its corresponding dividend yield is listed below:
1. Apple (AAPL) - 1.6%
2. Bank Of America (BAC) - 2.1%
3. Wells Fargo (WFC) - 3.8%
4. Coca-Cola (KO) - 3.1%
5. American Express (AXP) - 1.3%
6. Kraft-Heinz (KHC) - 5.1%
7. U.S. Bancorp (USB) - 2.8%
8. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - 2.9%

This comes to a weighted average dividend yield of 2.5%. For comparison, the S&P500 currently has a dividend yield of 1.9%.

A hint as to why Buffett's top 8 holdings are all in dividend paying securities comes from Buffett's position as both a businessman and an investor.

"I am a better investor because I am a businessman, and a better businessman because I am an investor."

- Warren Buffett

As a businessman, Buffett looks for companies that are able to generate cash with little reinvestment, and return that cash to him so he can reinvest it.

Interestingly, that's exactly what dividend stocks do. They throw off cash and return it to their owners for reinvestment into other securities.

This creates a virtuous cycle of wealth compounding when followed diligently over the long run.

Now Warren Buffett is in a very different situation than almost everyone else alive. Buffett more than almost anyone does not need to hunt for higher yielding securities. Having an $80 billion net worth means that safety is more important than yield for Buffett today.

But even investors who need portfolio yielding 4%, 5%, or 6% should still make safety a paramount priority.

The Warren Buffett approach to investing can be nicely summed up in the quote below:

“We select such investments on a long-term basis, weighing the same factors as
would be involved in the purchase of 100% of an operating business:
(1) favorable long-term economic characteristics;
(2) competent and honest management;
(3) purchase price attractive when measured against the yardstick of value to a
private owner; and
(4) an industry with which we are familiar and whose long-term business
characteristics we feel competent to judge.”

- Warren Buffett

Said succinctly, Buffett looks to invest in businesses that are likely to grow their profits over the long run, with quality management teams. And he looks to invest in these businesses when they are 'priced attractively'.

As an income investor, the only thing left to add is to require a dividend yield
appropriate for your portfolio.

With this in mind, I believe the Warren Buffett approach to income investing would look like this:

1. Businesses with strong and durable competitive advantages
2. And shareholder friendly management teams
3. With a stock trading at or below fair value
4. And a dividend yield that makes sense for your personal situation

[end quote]
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Old 01-07-2019, 01:16 PM   #87
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Whenever people bring up the 30% tax on dividends, do also note, if you are earning(profitable on the counter), every $1USD you earned as dividends, it's worth 30% more in SGD or about $1.30.

So a simple math, USD$1 dividends, they tax deduct 30% become USD$ 70c, which is actually 70c*1.3 = SGD $91c
So you lost about 9% in SGD terms. Of course, if you wanna be strict about it, yes you lost 30%.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:12 PM   #88
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psychology plays an important part in market.

1. assuming share price do not move. over long run, u will be better off holding a 5% dividend paying SGX stock rather than a world conglomerate currently paying abt 2-3%.

2. many pple buy US stocks for the fast movement. yes, 1 day can move 10% up, but one day can oso move 20% down. yr heart can take it?

3. diversification. I do long some speculative and volatile stocks. However, there is one part which I want to be defensive and gives stable income for the next 10-20 years. Bear market will come. Bear market will go. We can be 99% sure dat bear will hit US, but US will oso be one of the earliest economy to recover.

Above all, I show pple dat, there are free and excellent stuffs on the internet. juz hav to google hard enuff. there is no rocket science to investing. do not waste yr hard earn money on course sellers who do no shat and cannot guarantee yr success.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:56 PM   #89
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if only for dividends, no.
STI can give about 3% dividends tax free. the best STI companies give about 5%.

but strong dividend US companies are more likely to outperform SG companies over long run, so u not only get higher dividends, but also capital gains, which is non taxable.
What if US Reits can give 11% dividend?

https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MFA
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:27 PM   #90
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What if US Reits can give 11% dividend?

https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MFA
purely frm dividends pov, it can be a good steady income investing. I understand dat reits give monthly divs instead of quarterly.

H/e I din look at the historical div yield and cap appreciation and whether is it sustain div payouts during crisis.

oso as a reit, most of their assets shud be overseas based, do you have info whether is it good or bad assets, occupancy rates.
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