Yyhwin HK stock investment journal(update on random basis)

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Kinetic88

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Hope today drop not so extreme.

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Kinetic88

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Vomit out all gains since start of the year, think today not many people willing to come in and support the price.

srsly, most of us except those satki SSI paper warriors lost money in market like this. :(

and for sure not many ppl willing to take the risk in a falling market. All looking for exit door. :s22:
 

OngHuatHuat

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Last year I embraced the correction, ended the year with superb gain, not sure this year can repeat.


srsly, most of us except those satki SSI paper warriors lost money in market like this. :(

and for sure not many ppl willing to take the risk in a falling market. All looking for exit door. :s22:
 

OngHuatHuat

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https://sites.google.com/site/hocheongwong/香港股災重溫

第一輯 香港股災重溫

熊市資料檔案

不知道大家有沒有計算過,每一次熊市的跌幅有多大?每一次的跌市持續的時間又有多久?以下是本港過去有恆生指數以來,五次熊市的資料。

第一次熊市恆生指數從120點下跌到58.61,所需時間不詳,跌幅約51%。

第二次熊市恆生指數從一九七三年三月九日的1774.96,大幅暴瀉到七四年十二月十日的150.11,需時共一年零九個月,跌幅高達91.5%。

第三次熊市恆生指數從八一年七月的1810.20開始,反覆跌到八二年十二月的676點,需時共一年零五個月,幅度約63%。雖然熊市的最低點已見,但剛巧遇上了香港九七前途這問題,因此港股未能回升,只是在低位大幅波動,反覆爭持到八四年中。以此計算,這次熊市持續的時間則達三年之久。

第四次熊市恆生指數從八七年十月一日的3968.70開始,最低跌到同年十二月七日的
1876.18,歷時僅二個月左右,跌幅則達53%。

第五次熊市則發生在一九八九年五月十五日,當日恆生指數為3329.05,下跌到六月六日的2022.15,這跌市同樣歷時很短,不足一個月的時間,跌幅亦不算太大,共跌去39.26%而已!

有人亦把九○年美、伊戰爭所觸發的跌市視之為一次迷你股災,但我則認為這只是一次開市中的中期性調整,因此不算是熊市。

熊市有趣現象

上文詳細列述出本港五次熊市的跌幅和時間上道一次倒想從這些數字談談其中有趣的現象。

在這五次熊市中,跌幅最大的一次仍然是七三年的一次,跌幅多逾九成,這不單是香港的一項紀錄,也是世界上熊市的最大跌幅紀錄,可列入世界健力士紀錄大全。相信香港未來所出現的熊市,都不會打破這紀錄吧?不知道現在中國上海和深圳的股市,未來的下跌會否向這紀錄挑戰?

至於香港股市最大的單日跌幅紀錄,則是在八七年十月二十六日當日創下,全日指數共下跌1120.70,跌幅多達33%,此一紀錄迄今尚未打破,將來市場會否有更慘厲的跌市就不得而知了。

本港熊市歷時最長的一次要算是八一年的熊市上逗可說是一隻「長壽老熊」,持續了三年方告死亡。而壽命最短的熊市就是八九年「六四」所引發的一次,只有不足一個月的時間。兩次跌市同樣是「政治市」,但情形卻是大相逕庭!

八九年跌市不但歷時最短,而且還是跌幅最小的一次,大市僅是跌去約四成左右.殺傷力不算太大。

最近的二次熊市(八七和八九年),下跌的時間愈來愈短,經歷過熊市的人相信都有同感,跌市時間愈長,愈是難以忍受。想不到現代社會凡事講速度講效率,連跌市的效率也大大提高了。


現代熊市快而急

從八七和八九年的二次熊市下跌情形來看,香港跌市似乎有愈來愈快、愈來愈短的趨勢,這當然不是社會進步,跌市也講求速度和效率所致,只不過是市場成熟了,投資者的投資技巧成熟了,才會做成這現象的。

無論任何市場,價格大幅暴挫的最主要原因就是市場的借貸買賣活動過於頻繁,說得簡單點,就是做「孖展」的客戶太多,因此當市場下跌到某程度,財務機構要求客戶增加按金額而客戶卻又沒法做到時,財務公司就會代客戶進行斬倉,不計價沽售所投的股票(或商品),於是市場便會出現骨牌式的暴跌了。所以,愈瘋狂上升愈久的市場,一旦市勢逆轉,跌勢也就相當驚人。

至於市場大跌的另一原因,就是投資者不願意入市接貨,人人反而爭相沽售,市場一面倒只有賣家沒有買家的情形氐下,跌勢就會一發不可收拾。過去許多投資老不懂得甚麼投資理論,看見價位下跌,覺得很「抵」便告買入,孰不料愈買愈公,結果泥足深陷。
現在他們都學乖了,懂得「壯士斷臂」,卻可惜人人都壯士斷臂,結果那隻斷臂沒人願要,結果市道下跌,往往一瀉如注。

由於香港股民經歷過許多次慘烈的戰役,已見慣大場面,恐怕將來的跌市出現時,人人都會爭相斷臂,所以未來的熊市若是出視,下跌將會是「快」而「急」的。



歷年熊市比較

論熊市震撼性之強,八七年十月的一役為最,由於當時沒有人見過一天之內下跌1200點的「悲壯」場面,因此當時的跌市廣受注目,不但報章電台頭條新聞報導,甚至從沒沾手股票的人,也會留意事態發展。

然而這一次熊市的殺傷力卻是有限,若論熊市殺傷力,七三年的一次最強,不但許多上市公司紛紛破產清盤,許多小股民更是因而傾家蕩產。當時民間就流傳一個笑話,說青山精神病院裏也設有證券交易所,專為因炒儂股票發了神經的人而設
,直到現在我也未能證實此說是真是假。


最消耗投資意志力的熊市就是八一年的一次,那一次熊市全世界都在八二年中告終,但香港偏就在此時遇上了九七前途問題,結果熊市壽命延長了二年,這一年裏,股市時而和風細雨,時而暴雨狂諷,投資者期待黎明出現,但始終看不見黑暗中的曙光,不少投資者心灰意冷,陸逐離開市場。股市把所有人的鬥志消磨殆盡之後,才重納升軌。

至於八九年的熊市則令港人最陷於絕望無助的境地,投資者對中國的政局完全絕望和憤慨,不少投資者拋售股票並非是為了避免進一步出現損失,而是永遠離開這無可計算政治風險的市場,「時間是醫治歷史傷口的最佳靈藥」,當市場情緒性拋售過後,市道又再重新依循經濟的軌逃運行了。

「以古為鏡,可知興替」,我們吸收了歷史的教訓,又可否在未來的熊市中做得更好呢?

熊市何時結束?

牛市永遠都是悄無聲息地死亡,熊市也是一樣,當人人都懾於老熊的威力時,老熊也就悄然逝去了。許多人都想探知老牛死之前種種的市場徽兆,但老熊的死亡人們似乎不太關心。其實,我們能夠及時避過跌市雖可保持利潤不失,然而懂得及時入市,才是創造財富最首要的條件。

六七年的跌市怎樣結束?由於手上欠缺文獻,詳情不得而知。當時的跌市因暴動而起,相信也是因為暴動平息而止。

七三年大跌市結束的借口是市場當時盛傳銀行可能在年關將近放鬆銀根,於是市場便告回升了。當然,大市跌到極不合理的偏低水平,才是真正上升的因素。

八一年的熊市始於利率過高,令經濟陷入衰退,則因香港九七前途問題而持續,擾攘到八四年九月,中英雙方終於達成草簽協議,這次熊市也就正式壽終正寢。

八七年股災可說是一次錯誤的跌市,因為當時人人都擔心美國經濟經過五年的繁榮之後,可能會再次步入經濟循環性衰退階段,加上擔心所謂西方經濟模式六十年一次大蕭條,於是人人爭相拋售股票,令美股大跌,拖累了港股。當美股跌後喘定,重拾升勢時,港股熊市也就悄然逝去了。

八九年的跌市再因政治問題而起,打擊投資者信心,政治風潮平靜下來,跌市也就隨之而完結。

雖然每一次熊市死亡的誘因都不盡相同,然而有一點絕對相同的是每一次當所有的投資者都對市場百分百悲觀,人人黯然離市時,也就是老熊告終的時刻。



七五年至八四年股市重溫

從一九七五年開始,香港股市開始了另一次牛市,這次牛市持續上升到八一年七月十七日星期五,恆生指數最高升到1810.20,當日四會總成交達八億七千六百萬元。

和每一次熊市來臨沒有兩樣,事情總是沒有人能夠察覺的,當日傍晚本港銀行公會會議之後,決定把銀行各項利率提高一匣,加息後最優惠利率從十七厘上升至十八厘,儲蓄存款利息為十二厘,樓宇按揭利率則調升到十九厘。

該次加息的原因,銀行公會解釋是為了挽救疲弱的港元。當時港元與歐洲美元利息差距達三厘半,加上美元不斷上升(當時港元沒有和美元掛鉤),形成資金外流,不少港資調住海外套息。為防止情形繼續惡化,所以決定加息。

加息後第一個交易日(即七月二十日星期一),港股應聲下跌,但跌幅有限,全日恆生指數下跌了三十二點二零,交投依然暢旺,市場投資情緒仍然高漲,並未因加息而虛怯,沒有人料到另一次熊市的幔幕經已揭開。
 
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Perisher

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Got once my account was close to 400 - 500 % gain, now all wipe out. Luckily my mentality strong, not affecting my mood a lot.

Indeed, test of mettle...
The biggest fall I ever experienced in 5 years. :zotto:
 

cokezero

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Got once my account was close to 400 - 500 % gain, now all wipe out. Luckily my mentality strong, not affecting my mood a lot.

Do you seldom take profits? Multi baggers still holding ... :eek:
 

OngHuatHuat

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Actually I exegerrated a bit in my statement, should be one account from up 400-500 % back to up 300 %? Not so sure, never really check, coz don't dare to check.

Indeed, test of mettle...
The biggest fall I ever experienced in 5 years. :zotto:
 

cokezero

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I always hold, everytime got dividend then put back market, stupid right?

Nope. Think I read before on average the returns are about the same for buy and hold and hit and run... But most people lose trying FIFO.
 

OngHuatHuat

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What is the difference between fifo and hit and run?

Coz now I am semi retired to recover my body and my mental strength, then I kind of rely on dividend to pay off my mortgage and sightseeing trips(one short one long, to keep my promise to my wife), I cannot really do hit and run.

Nope. Think I read before on average the returns are about the same for buy and hold and hit and run... But most people lose trying FIFO.
 
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cokezero

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What is the difference between fifo and hot and run?

Coz now I am semi retired to recover my body and my mental strength, then I kind of rely on dividend to pay off my mortgage and sightseeing trips(one short one long, to keep my promise to my wife), I cannot really do hit and run.

Oops ... My bad... Can't remember the correct term. :o

Difference is one is investing on a longer term, but will take profits when target price is hit.
The other is more like trading within a few days like contra etc ...
 

OngHuatHuat

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I tend to agree to some extent. I will try experiment that out after my sustainable model is done. Currently still short of some funds.

The biggest problem is hard to do valuation for certain Hong Kong stocks, they may appear expensive considering the superb run since last year, but valuation wise still lower compared to USA market or even Singapore market. Reason why is because 2015-2016, most stocks in Hong Kong market performance very lousy.

Oops ... My bad... Can't remember the correct term. :o

Difference is one is investing on a longer term, but will take profits when target price is hit.
The other is more like trading within a few days like contra etc ...
 

OngHuatHuat

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Anyone here do trading using rsi? I realize for Hong Kong market rsi tends to be very accurate.
 

OngHuatHuat

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https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/ar...sed-by-china-s-love-for-hsbc-check-out-the-ex

Just some interesting read about china investors' love towards HSBC:

The one thing Chinese investors have learned from black swan events like Brexit is that global market sell-offs present nice buying opportunities.

In the first two days of this week, they bought a record HK$16 billion ($2 billion) net of Hong Kong shares through the connect programs that link the city's market with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, unfazed by the Dow's worst intraday points plunge in history.

Buying the Dip
Mainland investors bought a net more than HK$16 billion of Hong Kong shares on Monday and Tuesday.

Source: Bloomberg
The target of their interest may surprise some, though. Mainland buyers didn't bottom-fish their beloved Tencent Holdings Ltd., or pile into the fattening bond yields of the largest domestic banks. They went for HSBC Holdings Plc, purchasing a net more than HK$5 billion of stock. Through the connect, Chinese investors now own 5.7 percent of HSBC's shares, up from 2.3 percent last March, according to data collected by Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd.


To be sure, some of the buying can be attributed to the impressive performance of the London-based bank's stock, which returned about 88 percent from its post-Brexit-vote trough in June 2016 through Tuesday. Then again, China Construction Bank Corp.'s 77 percent return isn't too shabby either. So why do they love HSBC so much?

The answer is good corporate governance, and HSBC's long track record of caring for shareholders. Throughout 2015 and 2016, sell-side analysts muttered about whether the British bank could maintain its generous dividends. But even as it posted losses and cut jobs, HSBC didn't hurt small investors by reducing payouts.

Compare that with the horror stories unfolding in China
 
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