2020 market expectations and positioning

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coolhead

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But then again, you see, what Donald Duck wants most is the damn stock market to rise and chiong so that joker can tweet some sheet.

First round of emergency cut, markets tanked, 2nd round, futures limit down.

That doesn*********t serve that idiots purpose at all.

Unless that Duck and friends have loaded heavy short positions.


:s22:

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coolhead

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Removing banks' reserve requirement, that's basically mean technically the bank can borrow up to all of their cash reserve(including customers deposit) to suffering businesses in this time of crisis? When 1 default starts coming it, it may very likely cause a domino effect across the financial sector. Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, like the 2008. 2008 was caused by deregulation of debt management



that's what i find totally reckless. to think the fed can think of this stupid move, I'm not sure what's up in their kuku head. it doesn't instill confidence at all.

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AWholeNewWorld

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My own opinion, What I foresee is that, Trump just wants more money into the market to make the them looks good. To be ready for his re-election. He doesn't cares about the other things. What it means to us is that the market is supposed to fall even deeper, but it was only stopped by Trump's and his gang. They have to exit some days, it only means that the recovery will also be stopped by them exiting. A very long U-shape recovery for the investors and traders.
Stating the very obvious I guess.
 

theMKR

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My own opinion, What I foresee is that, Trump just wants more money into the market to make the them looks good. To be ready for his re-election. He doesn't cares about the other things. What it means to us is that the market is supposed to fall even deeper, but it was only stopped by Trump's and his gang. They have to exit some days, it only means that the recovery will also be stopped by them exiting. A very long U-shape recovery for the investors and traders.
Stating the very obvious I guess.

which means if trump doesnt get elected, it will go into a L shape gg.com?
 

gnoes85

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Actually what’s the Fed doing man?

First emergency cut, markets tanked, now cut again, the bloody futures limit down.

They’re like cutting for no purpose at all right like that....

Noob here. :s31:

Below is what I posted on March 6, of cos, most people laugh at me back then say market wont collapse. Interested can check out my past 3 weeks post.
History shows sudden announced lower interest = start of recession. Normally will announced 2 more times, by that time will negative rate, dunno what will happen
800px-Federal_funds_rate_history_and_recessions.png
 

DukeCS33

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that's what i find totally reckless. to think the fed can think of this stupid move, I'm not sure what's up in their kuku head. it doesn't instill confidence at all.

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The Fed has lost the plot.

Even if we have coordinated intervention across various Central Banks and Governments, it would still not stroke demand as consumers stay home.... I was in Orchard road today - major malls there is like a ghost town. The neighbourhood malls have better traffic but I still gauge traffic to have reduced by 30%. The longer the virus lingers, the higher the chance of a recession. I do not think the stock market has priced a recession into the picture as yet.
 

havetheveryfun

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Below is what I posted on March 6, of cos, most people laugh at me back then say market wont collapse. Interested can check out my past 3 weeks post.

ppl laugh at u is not because they think the market wont collapse
is because u are so sure the market will collapse but your actions say otherwise

gnoes85: told u so the market will collapse
person A: so did u short the market ?
gnoes85: no, i short crypto instead
person B: u didnt short the market? not just even a little bit?
gnoes85: no, i short crypto instead

:s13::s13::s13::s13::s13::s13:
 

Eraval

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My own opinion, What I foresee is that, Trump just wants more money into the market to make the them looks good. To be ready for his re-election. He doesn't cares about the other things. What it means to us is that the market is supposed to fall even deeper, but it was only stopped by Trump's and his gang. They have to exit some days, it only means that the recovery will also be stopped by them exiting. A very long U-shape recovery for the investors and traders.
Stating the very obvious I guess.


Since he was elected, he has been basing his success on the stock market, when it rises it was due to his great leadership etc etc. So now tanking, people will link it back to him mah. He die die also won't want that to happen, thats why the feds kena pressured into cutting the rates so early. But now all they can do is done, the futures still red red. It looks bleak for now bah.
 

coolhead

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The Fed has lost the plot.

Even if we have coordinated intervention across various Central Banks and Governments, it would still not stroke demand as consumers stay home.... I was in Orchard road today - major malls there is like a ghost town. The neighbourhood malls have better traffic but I still gauge traffic to have reduced by 30%. The longer the virus lingers, the higher the chance of a recession. I do not think the stock market has priced a recession into the picture as yet.



but we agree jerome powell is smart right? which economist will say "Ok, to save the world from financial doom, let's lower the RRR to 0."

The purpose of RRR is to buffer the banks from bank run, ok fine a bank run can happen if all acts in unison but all the more having RRR is important.

?????????????

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gamerx

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The Fed has lost the plot.

Even if we have coordinated intervention across various Central Banks and Governments, it would still not stroke demand as consumers stay home.... I was in Orchard road today - major malls there is like a ghost town. The neighbourhood malls have better traffic but I still gauge traffic to have reduced by 30%. The longer the virus lingers, the higher the chance of a recession. I do not think the stock market has priced a recession into the picture as yet.

I think by now most market participants know this and think this is the most reasonable assumption.

Which is why the feds' move seems to have backfired. People are interpreting it as signs of some deeper impending issues.
 

AWholeNewWorld

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Since he was elected, he has been basing his success on the stock market, when it rises it was due to his great leadership etc etc. So now tanking, people will link it back to him mah. He die die also won't want that to happen, thats why the feds kena pressured into cutting the rates so early. But now all they can do is done, the futures still red red. It looks bleak for now bah.

Being the "Free" country US, the market has already looked not as bad as what I or maybe a lot of us expected it to be already.
I was expecting the drops to be even steeper and hit the bottom, then stay there for a long time.
 

DukeCS33

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I think by now most market participants know this and think this is the most reasonable assumption.

Which is why the feds' move seems to have backfired. People are interpreting it as signs of some deeper impending issues.

Let's see if we may have history tonight with a 13% or 20% circuit breaker trigger.
 
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