Here my noob personal thought on Tesla

[amekago]

Once again, peepur keep toking like Tesla owns the battery tech...

https://electrek.co/2022/06/01/tesla-4680-battery-cell-samples-panasonic/
It's PRODUCED BY PANASONIC.

It is INVENTED/ DESIGNED by Tesla and outsourced to Panasonic to produce

However, Tesla is going to need so many cells that it is also partnering with current battery suppliers to deploy their own production of the new 4680 cell.

ownself share article but can't read


Tesla also makes 4680 at their Fremont factory

 

[amekago]

if the underlying tech is easily commoditized like you said then whoever has the best marketing wins.

Nothing wrong with having great marketing, brand equity isn't built in a day and it is a genuine competitive moat.

I do agree that too much lies in the cult of personality of elon musk, if he becomes unpopular then it will negatively affect Tesla and that's a real risk seeing as he's very unpredictable recently

yes, he tweet some jiaowehs the stock / crypto will go haywire

 

[Mechafanboy]

It is INVENTED/ DESIGNED by Tesla and outsourced to Panasonic to produce




ownself share article but can't read


Tesla also makes 4680 at their Fremont factory

If it can be produced by other battery producers, then there's nothing special nor revolutionary about Tesla 4680. U think China companies like CATL won't improve on Tesla designs and sell to other coys?

Tesla has no moat around its business. Other companies can kope the designs, improve upon it. FSD? There are other companies specialising in self driving tech. From battery to FSD, legacy automakers has no need for Tesla, they can sidestep Elon.

 

[Mechafanboy]

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-vs-byd-blade-vs-catl-qilin-structural-batteries-video/
If you think TSLA owns the EV battery race, think again... The advantage they have is slim..

 

[Chunchunmaru]

Elon's already used his trump card, i.e. his credibility.

Everyone now knows that he's full of hot air and no one's going to take what he says seriously anymore.

It's not going to move markets in the direction he wants them to.

My take is that if you have Tesla or anything tainted by Elon now, sell.

 

[Alphas]

The main problem with EV is the rising cost of lithium, lithium is not a common metal in the earth mantle and its price has been skyrocketing. Another problem is the fire risk of lithium batteries, unless both issues are resolved, EV can never be main stream vehicles.

 

[amekago]

If it can be produced by other battery producers, then there's nothing special nor revolutionary about Tesla 4680. U think China companies like CATL won't improve on Tesla designs and sell to other coys?

Tesla has no moat around its business. Other companies can kope the designs, improve upon it. FSD? There are other companies specialising in self driving tech. From battery to FSD, legacy automakers has no need for Tesla, they can sidestep Elon.

ur first point: haix....i bet u r not in the manufacturing line.....do u even know what is contract manufacturing?

to ur second point: sure they can, that's why Tesla works with CATL also

as for the moat...which major car coy got a moat? None....that's y Tesla can enter right

anybody with the money can start a car company....but to scale it and make it profitable is extremely difficult and Tesla almost failed

Apple and Dyson also say wanna make cars....where are they ar?

 

[amekago]

The main problem with EV is the rising cost of lithium, lithium is not a common metal in the earth mantle and its price has been skyrocketing. Another problem is the fire risk of lithium batteries, unless both issues are resolved, EV can never be main stream vehicles.

yes, that's y I think the next step is sodium ion batteries....there are challenges but researchers are working on it....i think CATL has some recent breakthrough as they say

 

[hardindex]

Bottom fisher would have entered at around 120, SIBEI Jialat

 

[d5dude]

The main problem with EV is the rising cost of lithium, lithium is not a common metal in the earth mantle and its price has been skyrocketing. Another problem is the fire risk of lithium batteries, unless both issues are resolved, EV can never be main stream vehicles.

Yes many people forget that EVs still cost about 70-100% more than ICE vehicles. EVs are even less attractive now that oil/petrol prices have tanked again, you dun even save that much money over the long run.

Oil must be priced a lot higher for renewables and EVs to be attractive.

 

[buttbERry]

got tldr ver?

 

[Dilemma6]

Have you got ICE cars trying to race you? I kenna it a few times. It's quite hilarious.

have, kana once, but i dont like racing so i just let them chiong.

 

[occifer]

Disclaimer. I do not know Tesla too well. Though I do not think it necessary

Here are my thoughts.

1. Tesla is highly marketing. The technology though great is highly exaggerated. Elon personality.

2. The other auto brands are not dumb. It cannot be they are doing nothing and let Tesla run away lead. Facts have shown their EVs also gaining market share. See Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, other brands. Apple is only only 22% smartphone. And I will argue Tesla cannot do better.

3. Tech advance so what. Other auto makers can throw money to buy your talents and know how. Tesla will not monopolise most of the tech.

4. EV still depend a lot on other factors, infrastructure for one, battery is another. All these can threaten Tesla survival. There is risk, imagine some country do not want to export some thing, chips or batteries or raw materials.

5. Countries will protect their auto makers, Germany China, they can tax Tesla or prejudice the market such that their own local industries and people gain more overall. Tesla sales will definitely not be great in many countries. Even it it does ok.

Just thinking macro and bits here and there. I dont know why Tesla HODL fanatics are so silly. Be aware of the risks bah. Not to mean I look Tesla down, it still have good chance for doing very well. Just that I see many risks.

Its a cult stock
Valuation dont matter much.

Finally, it has twitter as a risk. As long as twitter continues to burn money, Elon may need to sell more tesla in the future to fund twitter.

 

[occifer]

If it can be produced by other battery producers, then there's nothing special nor revolutionary about Tesla 4680. U think China companies like CATL won't improve on Tesla designs and sell to other coys?

Tesla has no moat around its business. Other companies can kope the designs, improve upon it. FSD? There are other companies specialising in self driving tech. From battery to FSD, legacy automakers has no need for Tesla, they can sidestep Elon.

Yep, new companies like lucid can make thats up to par with tesla specs.

Iirc, BMW has better fsd than tesla i think.

 

[Dilemma6]

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-vs-byd-blade-vs-catl-qilin-structural-batteries-video/
If you think TSLA owns the EV battery race, think again... The advantage they have is slim..

battery tech is only in the begining and it will only keep improving, so no point comparing. its like RAM in an android phone, having high ram doesnt mean better/faster if software isnt optimized to use them.

The advantage in tesla is the vertical integration and how the different features (super charger network, battery pack integrated into car body, FSD, over the air update etc etc) come together to create a compelling and competitive product.

 

[Evil_Boss]

Everything price in and performance numbers inflated with no CEO running the company.

$60 stock soon

 

[Dilemma6]

Yes many people forget that EVs still cost about 70-100% more than ICE vehicles. EVs are even less attractive now that oil/petrol prices have tanked again, you dun even save that much money over the long run.

Oil must be priced a lot higher for renewables and EVs to be attractive.

If oil drop price, that just mean electricity bills gonna be cheaper = cheaper to charge an EV.

current my tesla cost $431 to travel around 3.2k km (alot city driving) thats around $13.46/100km = 4-5L of petrol 95 for 100km = 20-25km/L for a 295 bhp car. easily save 50% compare to cars of similar horsepower. if compared to 98, save even more, but saving goes into road tax so doesn't really matter.

What i really like is that there isnt as much maintenance for a EV.
Probably only tires rotation every 10k km or check brake fluid or brake pad once in a while.
EV have regenerative braking = no brake needed in most case.

ICE vehicle must go back every year for maintanance, really waste of time and big distraction.
All these cost & time will add up.

 

[Mechafanboy]

Just look at Apple Iphone. You underestimated the ecosystems here.

Dont forget about Elon Musk other companies.
Elon Musk is the key here. If he can get twitter up, he might be one of the biggest influence man in the world.

According to Elon, Twitter is projected to lose 3 billion dollars this year. Quite likely Twitter will go bankrupt within the next couple of years. Elon is not even paying the rent for twitter HQ, and he is getting sued for it...

 

[theMKR]

tsla is in s&p500, it wun drop so much one la....

 

[televisione]

Investing in single stock is risky and highly volatile...

Anyway most investor have high risk appetite, go big or go home

Because the first concept of investing is only invest what you are willing to lose..