Look at how Mah Bow Tan dramatically scaled down the flat supply from 2001 to 2010

[cancer81]

You live in 3 constituencies? U can vote 3 times?

How do you kick 3 seating MPs out?

 

[mccmmm]

A bunch of useless mp should we say?
Created unrest domestic problems to the society

 

[mynameisjon]

Essentially, gahmen was left with large stock of surplus units (ranging from 20,000-40,000 depending on sources) towards the begining of 21st century. They came under heavy criticism from public for waste of tax money from all those empty new blocks of flats (I would be surprised if folks - except for youngsters - forgot about that era of 'haunted deserted blocks). The HDB Build Strategy (build ahead) was then changed to lean more towards a new approach (build to demand) aka BTO.

Most graphs will show essentially a picture like this

In a manner, the introduction of BTO for a greater part of last decade did not cause price rise that many folks are trying to pin it to. BTO worked in typical laissez faire manner. The rights of the BTO is that without its introduction back then, the graph above will, instead a flat line in the middle, you may see a deeper longer sag and Opposition would continue to rail about waste tax money and perhaps some families would suffer financial issues like American home owners in recent home crisis. However, the strength of BTO is also the achilles heel in the BTO strategy in the long lead time to build a block of units (about 4yrs from placing order to taking keys). It fails when there is unexpected increase in demand. By reducing the amount of surplus units, it also removes a buffer stock to hedge against surge.

It is hard to say MBT should be tried for treason for scaling down HDB production when the "scaling down" was actual orders for greater part of that decade (minus some orders that went into soaking up surplus or rejects). It is better to say he was asleep at the wheel and not reacting faster to change in demand (perhaps by replenishing a small buffer stock; or adopting the private developers method of forecasting - with fair amount of hits and misses and some people may still hate any national programs for even the smallest of miss), but then again it still take years for construction programs to be reviewed, enacted, and results showing downstream. This is one big ship that is hard to turn like a speedboat.

2cents

You put forth a reasonable argument for MBT, but remember; He was literally paid millions to do his job.

Perfect performance and flawless planning is therefore expected.

 

[cancer81]

There are two ways HDB could go about things

1)Artificially keep prices high at certain levels, growing apace with inflation but almost disregard income growth. Care only about 1st timers and heck the other portions. Especially upgraders.

2)Artificially suppress prices and suppress growth to below inflation levels. Further suppress the market by simply building blocks upon blocks of flats. Push the supply up and simply unleash them onto the market via "balance sales". Almost half the 1st timers walk into HDB can pick a ready made flat. Even if it is in say Lim Chu Kang....

I wonder what a vote on the 2 resolutions could look like...

 

[RobbieJ]

Another honest mistake that can easily be forgiven (or explained away) without any raised eyebrows.

 

[Jarlaxle]

Saw this else where. Leave you pple to analyze.....

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=...s/marriages_and_divorces/keyind%20smd2011.xls

more data from ROM!

148.7k marriages between 2006 to 2010.
26k hdb built during this period.

i wonder where the rest of the 122k couples are staying sia.
plus there are incoming FTs LOL

 

[cancer81]

there are also many couples whose combined incomes are above the HDB income thresholds...

do not simply use the numbers and state that HDB need to build a unit for every couple produced

why do you not take out the number of divorces per year? Or are you implying that with a flat available that couples will not split?

 

[Kyoji83]

My wife, children & I are living in my parent's house for more then 5 years before we can move in to our HDB BTO 3-room flat. Why 3 room?

Cause...

1) 4 room & 5 room flat have the most demand compare 3 room flat.

2) Salary may play a part (Tested with my peers where they do not have children but their family gross salary is higher then mine. They manage to get a queue number but those 'backup stand by' number. I did not even get a queue number. This has been tested for a few years & the only time I have a 'backup stand by' queue number is my 1st time of applying flat with 1 child when my family gross salary is higher then my friends).

3) Base on factor 1 & 2, chances to get 4 room is near to zero. Since we cannot afford 5 & 6 room flat, we have to apply 3 room to increase our chance since my children is getting bigger & my wife is getting impatient.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=...s/marriages_and_divorces/keyind%20smd2011.xls

more data from ROM!

148.7k marriages between 2006 to 2010.
26k hdb built during this period.

i wonder where the rest of the 122k couples are staying sia.
plus there are incoming FTs LOL

 

[Carnage]

You put forth a reasonable argument for MBT, but remember; He was literally paid millions to do his job.

Perfect performance and flawless planning is therefore expected.

Being paid millions aside, that doesn't mean he's not allowed to make mistakes.

What I find it hard to believe is, Goh Chok Tong had been saying for a long time that Singapore needed foreign labour to keep the economy vibrant. Not to mention URA and HDB probably have analysts working in their departments to project supply and demand. So how can they just keep cutting supply without knowing where the demand was coming from?

 

[Jarlaxle]

there are also many couples whose combined incomes are above the HDB income thresholds...

do not simply use the numbers and state that HDB need to build a unit for every couple produced

why do you not take out the number of divorces per year? Or are you implying that with a flat available that couples will not split?

i tot of that too!
then someone will ask me, wat about those who remarried again?!
its not going to end lah. we juz need a ballpark figure can liao.
if u like, u can put a 50% discount to that.
or u can use the NEW PR or CITIZEN to offset the divorce rate lor

but since 80% of the singaporeans live in HDB.
safe to say that 80% of the couples will hv to buy lah.

more than 70% of the ppl will benefit from wage supplement policy!
and that has a cap of GROSS MONTHLY WAGE of 4K
i dun tink there are as many ppl who are above the income ceiling lah.

definitely not so many until we hv a 122k gap between house built vs couple married.

tio bo ?

 

[Jarlaxle]

My wife, children & I are living in my parent's house for more then 5 years before we can move in to our HDB BTO 3-room flat. Why 3 room?

Cause...

1) 4 room & 5 room flat have the most demand compare 3 room flat.

2) Salary may play a part (Tested with my peers where they do not have children but their family gross salary is higher then mine. They manage to get a queue number but those 'backup stand by' number. I did not even get a queue number. This has been tested for a few years & the only time I have a 'backup stand by' queue number is my 1st time of applying flat with 1 child when my family gross salary is higher then my friends).

3) Base on factor 1 & 2, chances to get 4 room is near to zero. Since we cannot afford 5 & 6 room flat, we have to apply 3 room to increase our chance since my children is getting bigger & my wife is getting impatient.

yeah... kinda bo pian.
by circumstances instead of by choice.

then u see ppl giving up when their numbers fall within the total number of units

 

[xdivider]

Being paid millions aside, that doesn't mean he's not allowed to make mistakes.

What I find it hard to believe is, Goh Chok Tong had been saying for a long time that Singapore needed foreign labour to keep the economy vibrant. Not to mention URA and HDB probably have analysts working in their departments to project supply and demand. So how can they just keep cutting supply without knowing where the demand was coming from?

The problem is, 1 yr b4 the election, he maintained that it was bcos of choosy people, and not a supply issue. Only when paper cannot cover the fire, then he admitted there was an 'imbalance'. Asking MBT to say, sorry I f**k up is impossible. Hence, he deserves all the scorn heaped on him and more........

 

[Providence]

My girlfriend and I just registered for a BTO flat at Punggol this afternoon. The launch was announced by Straits Times in the morning but I only received the SMS alert around 1600 hours today. It seems that the announcement is very slow and HDB may be getting too much to handle at the moment. Overflow??

 

[polar1993]

Really looking to kicking this Mah HDB-is-affordable Bow Tan out in GE2016.

These too:
- Raymond Increase-transport-Fares-to-increase-quality Lim
- Vivian (I overspent the budget by 4 times. Do you want 3 meals in a restaurant) Balakrishnan

Well said man. I really dont know how they can screw up housing, which is like the most basic requirement in any civilization lor. If one cannot afford a roof over your head, how are you expected to do anything else??

 

[Providence]

Go back to basics to make housing afforable: ex-CEO of HDB

SINGAPORE: Housing must be affordable, but the Housing & Development Board (HDB) must also remain financially viable, said former HDB chief executive officer Liu Thai Ker.

He was speaking about Singapore's housing policies at a lecture organised by the Ministry of National Development (MND) on Thursday.

Dr Liu, who is also the chairman of the Centre for Liveable Cities, said that Singapore must remain prudent, making sure that "government finance is sound".

He also gave suggestions on making housing more affordable.

He said supply should match with demand, adding that it might not be a bad idea to over-supply "marginally".

He said this would keep market prices in check.

Dr Liu also spoke about the difficulties and challenges faced in executing public housing policies.

He also discussed how the Singapore model may be applied to highly dense cities in developing countries.

Dr Liu Thai Ker, former chief architect and chief executive officer of HDB, said: "We should go to the basics, in the sense that we should not emulate condominiums, because... (they) require more expensive materials...

"Go back to the basics, keep the housing prices still affordable, and let the residents embellish the house."

 

[Providence]

In my opinion, HDB shouldn't be following those private estates when it is designing new HDB flats. Just build normal HDB flats and let the residents renovate the interiors on their own. This will definitely bring the pricing down as compared to now. The ex-CEO has a point there.

 

[cancer81]

In my opinion, HDB shouldn't be following those private estates when it is designing new HDB flats. Just build normal HDB flats and let the residents renovate the interiors on their own. This will definitely bring the pricing down as compared to now. The ex-CEO has a point there.

well as we often say in hockkien... mai hiam is buay bai... ai hiam is jin eh si KNS...

true, if HDB goes back to building "barebones" designed blocks. Things might be cheaper. OR would they? The other thing is also that if the overall look of the block looks bad (hey the old blocks do look quite bad) when new imagine 30 years down the line.

Sure, I would admit that flats in say Tiong Bahru look rustic and even nostalgic. I would love to live in one of those but not because of the look of the place... I want there as the location is rather convenient in terms of travelling.

The other thing would be how much cheaper can it get? 10-20%?? I think that is the maximum. To make it worth the sacrifice of looks... 40% cheaper seems more like it. Doubt it can get that low though. Not with the new levy levels incoming...

 

[Carnage]

To be frank, the new HDB flats really look very stylish. Not just nice and spanking.

I've a few friends from overseas remark that our public housing look as good as their private housing in their home countries.

The issue here is, some Singaporeans actually want the aesthetics.

 

[koxinga]

To be frank, the new HDB flats really look very stylish. Not just nice and spanking.

I've a few friends from overseas remark that our public housing look as good as their private housing in their home countries.

The issue here is, some Singaporeans actually want the aesthetics.

This was because the government encouraged and set the tone for it in the 1990s with the change from a simple roof over the head into an property 'asset'. People are now conditioned to expect designer quality and high valuations as an unintended consequence of those policies.

 

[cancer81]

think abt it from another angle

80% of the populace lives in HDB flats

if they look like the projects in New York city, the public housing in Hong Kong... would it look nice?

I do not know of a country/city where more than 80% of it's population lives in public developed housing. in HK it is less than half.