Rise and Fall of Superpower

[Machim]

The current era that we are living are presenting very challenging environment not only to the individuals but also to the very societies due to the global resource constraint and technology bottom neck.

In the past, there were enough technologies breakthrough and innovations that allowed the the country with the most advanced scientific power to become superpower in terms of economy and influence. Example is America and Japan, where their innovations allowed them to develop leading technology and products that dominated the world economy. When technology innovations are at that plenty, the direction of the future development is clear and obvious for the world leaders. USA and Japan would always manufacture the most leading products, while the less developed cheaper countries would manufacture more mainstream products at a cheap lower cost.

What happened later is that there is a slow down of technology innovations. there is less and less new leading products coming to the market, USA and Japan start running out of leading products to manufacture and find themselves hard to compete against less developed countries to manufacture more mainstream products. Slowly USA and Japan find themselves losing manufacturing power to less developed countries, at first to South American and Asia. So USA have no choice but slowly turned its attention to service sector and domestic demand, such as finance, multimedia such as films, books and others.

Initially the South America and Asia are booming, but India and China suddenly become the big players as they start opening their market and opening themselves to the world. Due to their huge population size and low wage cost, they become the biggest mainstream products manufacturing with the potential to become some of the largest domestic market globally. Suddenly, India becomes the world largest IT oursourcing venue and China becomes the largest mainstream product manufacturing venue.

Therefore, as the economies of USA and Japan become stagnant, India and China are growing at a staggering pace. As USA continues to focus on its domestic market, India and China is supplying their cheap services and products to USA and the rest of the world. Soon USA finds that it needs to borrow money to substain the current lifestyle of living. Just like a fisherman borrowing money from the moneylender. The fisherman keeps on borrowing money from the moneylender and the moneylender dare not refuse as it depended on the fisherman for enough fishes for his diet. If one day the moneylender able to catch enough fish on his own, he will refuse to lend money to the fisherman and fisherman will become broke.

 

[cherry6]

Moral Decay and the end of American political economy

Moral Decay and the end of American political economy

Source Thread: 'Rise and Fall of Superpower'
The current era that we are living are presenting very challenging environment not only to the individuals but also to the very societies due to the global resource constraint and technology bottle neck.
In the past, there were enough technologies breakthrough and innovations that allowed the the country with the most advanced scientific power to become superpower in terms of economy and influence. Example is America and Japan, where their innovations allowed them to develop leading technology and products that dominated the world economy. When technology innovations are at that plenty, the direction of the future development is clear and obvious for the world leaders. USA and Japan would always manufacture the most leading products, while the less developed cheaper countries would manufacture more mainstream products at a cheap lower cost.
What happened later is that there is a slow down of technology innovations. there is less and less new leading products coming to the market, USA and Japan start running out of leading products to manufacture and find themselves hard to compete against less developed countries to manufacture more mainstream products. Slowly USA and Japan find themselves losing manufacturing power to less developed countries, at first to South American and Asia. So USA have no choice but slowly turned its attention to service sector and domestic demand, such as finance, multimedia such as films, books and others.
Initially the South America and Asia are booming, but India and China suddenly become the big players as they start opening their market and opening themselves to the world. Due to their huge population size and low wage cost, they become the biggest mainstream products manufacturing with the potential to become some of the largest domestic market globally. Suddenly, India becomes the world largest IT outsourcing venue and China becomes the largest mainstream product manufacturing venue.
Therefore, as the economies of USA and Japan become stagnant, India and China are growing at a staggering pace. As USA continues to focus on its domestic market, India and China is supplying their cheap services and products to USA and the rest of the world. Soon USA finds that it needs to borrow money to sustain the current lifestyle of living. Just like a fisherman borrowing money from the moneylender. The fisherman keeps on borrowing money from the moneylender and the moneylender dare not refuse as it depended on the fisherman for enough fishes for his diet. If one day the moneylender able to catch enough fish on his own, he will refuse to lend money to the fisherman and fisherman will become broke.
[bold font and spelling edits added]

Not to sure if the fisherman scenario is that apt an example bc the US in reality, now doesn't borrow, it simply PRINT$$$$; anyhow, I think that recent US Presidents in recent times have breed an increasingly STUPID population based upon their 'job printing' policies to that lull lay electorate from genuine concern.

From what I do hear, many American citizens are still stuck in their pre-Lehman (2007-8) profligacy, (then and still) funded by the USA housing boom funded perpetuated by deception, aka "fraudulent underwriting practices".

Currently, their chieftain, Mr Ben Bernanke, Chairman of US FED, seems to be of the opinion that if by hook or crook, the share markets can be propped up by quantitative easing (aka printing $$$), then the economy can glow again, but all this silliness is no contest for the stable Asian concept of 'love' whereby individuals are taught to place others' (family/ country) first.

My current view is that rather than sticking to the purity of its own religion (Christianity (mainly protestant AFAIK))- as exemplified by mutual caring and love between men as the alter of God bestows, American citizens have instead increasingly believed in the deceptive statistics spewed by economist, in conspiracy with 2 querulous political parties- democrats and republicans, purporting on each side- skewed, half baked economic theories.

Whilst money printing aka "quantitative easing (QE)" in the short term might indeed boost the economy (raise GDP), this effect is temporary (think drug doping in cycling sport/ Lance Armstrong), unfortunately, the cost of such myopic endeavor is oft devastating. For the profit of aggrandizing Obama's joblessness/ GDP statistics/ Presidency short term, here's what QE will do to human (American) society:
- Widen rich poor divide because only equity (bonds, stocks etc) holders and home owners profit from the FED's US$1trillion p.a. QE plan (US$85billion/ month = US$1020 Billion p.a.). The $ sloshing around the economy will immediately raise stock prices and housing prices through cheap mortgage rates but the consequences of such are manifold:

- More money around makes people more stressed and the economy more complicated- essential public services are strained and eventually will costs more to run (healthcare, police, fire service)- eventually dragging down the economy if mismanaged.
- People become more unreasonable and demanding because there is excessive dependence upon government powers to provide jobs/ sustain the economy since inflation is often a delayed side effect of loose monetary policy: this disquiet will be politically challenging to control down the road for politicians of today's standards (e.g. Bush, Obama).
- Politicians who depend upon loose monetary policies (borrowing against future generations) rather than "leading by example" set the example for dishonesty amongst the citizens of the country. 'Like father like son', bad leaders beget bad followers, the Americans of tomorrow will not be more virtuous then their leaders today who rather borrow money against the credit of their unborn children than lead society by moral example.

- needless to say, I do indeed believe that the US economy is heading in the wrong direction as it seems a growing economy devoid of moral foundation. Obama's theory seems to be that by increasing the food pile upon the table of the rich, more food will fall off the table as scraps for the poor- an extremely inefficient method of alleviating poverty in the world today.

Still, little does Obama realize that over eating by the rich will result in indigestion, and over a longer term, a fatal coronary. The scraps the poor get from the floor are also stale and the indignity of receiving half eaten food isn't significantly uplifting. Worse, all the food wasted in this process only serves to pollute the environment, making it less hospitable for all (read global warming, Fukushima nuclear disaster*, environmental pollution). Ultimately, an economy that encourages 'creative accounting' and other moral hazards and plagued by an ever increasing class divide cannot be described as a resilient society and where push comes to shove, civil discord/ war will again take hold and reduce all liberties to that of a police state. One full circle, the rise and the fall of the Unites States of America.

In short, the American economy, originally built more like a house upon a rock, is now built like one upon shaky soil; the moral compass of America is broken.

Where love and liberty fail, corruption and authoritarianism take hold.
A political system not driven by moral interest (love) but by the unilateral and irresponsible desire for personal wealth(at all costs)- is doomed to fail.

Pre-Lehman was a mirage, post Lehman is truth.

Sans moral purpose and direction, the citizens of this world have little, if any, to look forward to.

1 John 4:8; New International Version (NIV)
God’s Love and Ours
8 Whoever does not love does not know God, because God is love.

Matthew 7:15-20, New International Version (NIV)
True and False Prophets:
15 “Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves. 16 By their fruit you will recognize them. Do people pick grapes from thornbushes, or figs from thistles? 17 Likewise, every good tree bears good fruit, but a bad tree bears bad fruit. 18 A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, and a bad tree cannot bear good fruit. 19 Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. 20 Thus, by their fruit you will recognize them.


Matthew 7:24-27; New International Version (NIV)
The Wise and Foolish Builders
24 “Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. 25 The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock. 26 But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. 27 The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash.”

*PS: 'Fukushima nuclear disaster' is used as an example of a man made disaster: wherein it was declared by the investigation commission that: "the Japanese Nuclear Industrial and Safety Agency had been promoting nuclear energy without being open about the inherent risks.
It said that a culture of complacency about nuclear safety and poor crisis management had led to the nuclear disaster." [Japan nuclear plants 'still not safe', (aljazeera, 23July2012)]

Caption: Inflation is an extinct concept in textbooks written by Chairman of Fed, Mr Ben Bernanke.[pict source: Dear Ben, Please Print Us More Money]

Caption: Currency currency everywhere, yet not a bit to spend [Source: Hyperinflation In Zimbabwe]

Tags: America, economy, morality, quantitative easing, development, GDP, inflation, poverty, world, stability, hyperinflation, Ben, Bernanke, QE, Love, budget, fiscal, economics, Christian,

 

[tequila_powered]

Why are you referring to Bible in economics?

 

[cherry6]

Why?...

Why are you referring to Bible in economics?

2 big topics that I love to study?

 

[cherry6]

Bernanke's the arsonist who caused the Lehman meltdown in the first place (even though he saved worl

Remembering that one yr on, the situation is still getting worse...
(A reply to TS thread post at another discussion forum..)

Bernanke's the arsonist who caused the Lehman meltdown in the first place (even though he saved world economy from the ammagedon he brought on).

Thread source (PF): Moral Decay and the downfall of the American economy
Most every government that has ever existed is some sort of kleptocracy. (whatever that is) Basically, might makes right. We're in charge, you're not, gimme. That's how government, hell, that's how LIFE, works.
Moral decay has nothing to do with it. The first thing any despot does is "clamp down" on all the "immorality", going on. The Nazis systematically killed 13,000,000 people, and started the worst war in history killing 37, 000,000 more before they were done. But, boy, they were sure moral as all hell. Their soldiers, and even their worst opponents admit this, were brave, loyal and regularly fought to the last man. And that's just how they died, too.
All the love in the world won't fill an empty belly, all the good intentions that have ever existed won't stop a single infection. A good hug might keep make you feel a little better until the other person's heat runs out but a blanket will keep you a lot warmer and doesn't snore.
It's OK for society to let rich people keep some of their money. Even letting them keep MOST of it is a good idea, but letting them keep ALL of it is a recipe for disaster because, surprise, surprise, they'll do just exactly that if you let them and then, very soon, you don't have roads, police, fire depts, but you do have people starving and dying in the streets.
And if you have enough people, like the majority, starving and dying in the streets, or even knowing someone who is, then the rich people won't have any money any more, or at least they'll find it difficult to spend while hanging from a post outside their house.

Hi Mr Ulyanov, U r Russian?
What I mean by 'morals' was a commitment to good conscience: e.g. A commitment to the good of the world in one's actions.
I guess some people use the word 'moral' loosely like the word 'reasoning' and thus use it like a allegiance to some dictator and thus justify crimes with it (such as the Jewish Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazis as U have rightly described).

Often too do common folk confuse love with lust: why else does a large proportion of marriages end in divorce?

I have a saying that (morally):
The rich is someone who brings good to the world,
The poor man is one who brings evil.

A good man will teach a poor man to fish,
A bad guy will give a man a fish, simply as distraction to rob his possessions.

There were people able to love despite the harsh life under the Nazi occupation, there were occupied/ persecuted people happier than Hitler despite his totalitarian rule. Sometimes, it is the power of love and the strong moral mindset that really counts.

That said, the current Bernanke/ Abenomics is like the Hitler/ dictator's usual bait and switch trick: it all sounds good on first presentation: like Robin Hood did at first: robing the rich or those with money. But neither economic ideology is a complete RobinHood-pro-poor one: the ultimate result being the poor suffering more whilst the rich prosper. Maybe I am being extreme, but I have read commentators praising Bernanke's quantitative easing as successful fire fighting by a criminal arsonist: it looks like a successful job, until U find that it was the fireman guilty for starting the fire in the very first place.

 

[cancer81]

keep your bible studies to yourself

it makes your economic ideas more palatable...

 

[tequila_powered]

It is hard to say today that India is an economic superpower. So much negative things there. Dysfunctional government, terrible politics/politicians, racial/religious/class/caste strifes of violent nature, highly protected market, not many world-beating company (almost none) for its population size, vaunted IT-outsource industry taking a beating and losing some customers to ...China. Let's just say India has big potential to be economic superpower if or when they finally get most ducks lined up.

China? Their economic superpower status is hithertho driven mainly by cheap labor. The Soviet Union (and WarsawPact bloc) had relatively cheap (free perhaps in some sense) labor that up to some point in time generated huge $ for the nation. But they, due to ideology of course, could not transit from cheap command economy to higher productivity beyond mere manufacturing. Economic superpower perhaps but for only few decades. Same with many other small nations that failed to make it out from the middle class trap, witness the latest set of 'victims' in South America that were until recently toasted all over to make into developed nation status but alas. To China's government's credit, they recognized value of (1) capitalism/free-market (2) dead end trap of cheap labor economy. Debit side - large lowly educated population, higher-worth job creation, coming silver tsunami from the one-child policy, internal regional issues with large minorities, huge military overhead (PaulKennedy's trade off between plow and sword), treatment of potential large customer/supplier base eg Japan etc. What they do with the current big surplus will determine if they get to be economic superpower longer than defunct Soviet Union, or Japan. Getting up there may be easier than staying up there.

 

[cancer81]

You can no longer depend on producing products from your own country as your driving force behind trade.

Supply chains and manufacturing chains are now multinational.

iPhones and iPods (the vaulted things that sinkies like to cite when saying SG no ppl innovate/create) is merely designed in Apple. It is made across the globe. With each bit coming from some place and being assembled in the cheapest, fastest place possible: China.

the current generation of youths there do not quite feel so fulfilled doing "a tiny pin" role. It is like here where lots of people are no longer satisfied with things are feeling.

China will shift focus from being the factory of the world to something else. It is easy to see who they are targeting. Korea currently designs most electronic appliances you use. They also supply you with most of your entertainment if you let them. The country that used to do that? Japan.

I am not holding my breath about China taking over that role yet....

it is not just economical. Cultural also plays a big part

 

[Providence]

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR for short) used to be a major global superpower during the Cold War and it used to be on par with the United States technologically. After the Cold War, the USSR is disintegrated into several independent countries and the Russian Federation became the successor to the USSR. However, the United States is still regarded as a global superpower but the Russian Federation's global status still remains uncertain. It has remained idle in most global affairs and it is not that interested in the invisible feud between the People's Republic of China and the United States at the moment. Or in the case of North Korea's weird behavior, the Russians did not do much about it and the Chinese were the ones trying to resolve the issue peacefully. In my opinion, the Russians are trying to stabilize their own territories since the Islamist terrorists continue to ravage them occasionally. Without resolving domestic problems first, the Russian Federation may not be able to become a true superpower. Now it can only bask in its former glorious days as the USSR and let the US continue to reign supreme over the world without agitating the 'hibernating Cossack giant'. Trust me! Russia will rise again to become the next global superpower which will rival China and the US in the future.

 

[Inzaghi009]

Therefore, as the economies of USA and Japan become stagnant, India and China are growing at a staggering pace. As USA continues to focus on its domestic market, India and China is supplying their cheap services and products to USA and the rest of the world. Soon USA finds that it needs to borrow money to substain the current lifestyle of living. Just like a fisherman borrowing money from the moneylender. The fisherman keeps on borrowing money from the moneylender and the moneylender dare not refuse as it depended on the fisherman for enough fishes for his diet. If one day the moneylender able to catch enough fish on his own, he will refuse to lend money to the fisherman and fisherman will become broke.

Did you wrote the article or did you cut and past, if yes could you paste the link. Thank you

 

[Machim]

Did you wrote the article or did you cut and past, if yes could you paste the link. Thank you

I wrote the article from what I felt at that point in time, all the words just come out as my thoughts. Think I neglected to include the consideration of money printing into my thinking.

Anyway USA is banking on the world still need US dollars as world currency and USA is too important for the world, 'Too Big to Fail' applies not only to Big Banks but also USA in relation to the world.

USA will do all it can to retain its superpower status but as you all are witnessing is the decline of this superpower both in terms of economically and militarily. I am not implying that USA military technology has lagged but simply that USA is counting every penny when it comes to war nowadays. That's why you see cyber-war, economic sanctions as weapon of choice for USA nowadays as it is cheaper to use than conventional war.

USA is playing chess with China, in order to keep China power in check or slow them down. They are trying to get all the China neighbours to be in not so friendly terms with China, especially over the south china sea. China of course allies itself with Russia to counter what USA is doing.

How it turns out in the future will be very tricky. If China is smart enough, it will rebuilt its relationship with its neighbours and co-develop the south china sea resources. One stone hit two birds, getting the resources it wants while projecting China influence and power.

If USA is smart enough, it should go back to its basics, going back to its roots of hard work and creativity to bring the economy and technology to new levels that it becomes leader again.

If you ask me if Singapore is smart enough, what will it do? My personal feeling is that currently our culture cultivates and encourages obedient and hardworking workers. This has worked well in the past, but looking at the future, I think we need to make some changes to our culture to cultivate and encourage innovators, creators and visionaries like Steve Jobs to create Apple kind of innovations, Facebook kind of application and Angry Bird kind of game. Attracting talents to accumulate in Singapore will only make it a hub, utilising talent to lead the world in terms of innovations will keep Singapore always ahead of the rest of the world and the way to keep Singapore prosperous in the future. It is not impossible for others to catch up on us to be the Hub, but it is far more difficult for others to be as innovative as us if we do it right.

The above is just my two cents worth

 

[colonelbenders]

Singapore just play neutral and try to get into good books of all tyhe superpowers lo. What else can we do

 

[Machim]

You maybe wondering if India and China may influence the world by the their sheer population, why can't Indonesia do the same as it is holding a large population? Why is the Westerners churning out Apple, Facebook, Angrybird while Asians can't?

If Isaac Newton is born as a Chinese and he saw the apple fall down from the tree, he begins ponder why the apple would move vertically from higher place to lower place, his Chinese father would use a bamboo stick to beat him up and scold him why thinking about useless things like this, he should study books and thinking about how to do business, make more money and make his family proud. Why the Chinese invented fire powder and it is the Westerners that developed guns?

If a talented genius is born in the wrong culture, the talented genius would not able to utilise his potential to the fullest that resulted in discovery of gravity. Someone else that born in the right culture would replace Newton to discover gravity.

What makes a person succeed, character of the person. What makes a country succeed, culture of the country. A country is like a person. A person with the wrong character, no matter how much money he has, he will squandered away. A person with the right character, although he does not have much money, but he work hard smartly and invest his money to become rich person.

The character is the backbone of a person that helps to determine the success. Similarly the culture is the backbone of a country that helps to determine success. A smart person notices the change of the environment and invest his time and money on things that will be valuable in the future will become successful. A smart country notices the change in the global environment and shapes the culture of the country to create values in the future will enjoy success.

Just my another two cents ranting

 

[ASM_HWZ]

You maybe wondering if India and China make influence the world by the their sheer population, why can't Indonesia do the same as it is holding a large population? Why is the westerners churning out Apple, Facebook, Angrybird while asian can't?

If Isaac Newton is borned as a Chinese and he saw the apple fall down from the tree, he begins ponder why the apple would move vertically from higher place to lower place, his Chinese father would use a bamboo stick to beat him up and scold him why thinking about useless things like this, he should study books and thinking about how to do business, make more money and make his family proud. Why the chinese invented fire powder and it is the westerners developed guns?

If a talented genuis is borned in the wrong culture, the talented genius would not able to utilise his potential to the fullest that resulted in discovery of gravity. Someone else that borned in the right culture would replace Newton to discover Gravity.

What makes a person succeed, character of the person. What makes a country succeed, culture of the country. A country is like a person. A person with the wrong character, no matter how much money he has, he will squandered away. A person with the right character, although he does not have much money, but he work hard smartly and invest his money to become rich person.

The character is the backbone of a person that helps to determine the success. Similar the culture is the backbone of a country that helps to determine success. A smart person notices the change of the environment and invest his time and money on things that will be valuable in the future will become successful. A smart country notices the change in the global environment and shapes the culture of the country to create values in the future will enjoy success.

Just my another two cents ranting

So Zhuge Liang, Liu Bowen, Tao Zhugong, and more all born in the wrong era or place.

 

[Machim]

So Zhuge Liang, Liu Bowen, Tao Zhugong, and more all born in the wrong era or place.

I don't understand why you said they are born in the wrong era or place? If they are born today, they are most likely corporate strategist aka consultant or government advisor.

If they are born in western countries in the same era, they would also likely to be successful military strategist or businessman.

Chinese are brilliant as a businessman and military strategist, look at the number of chinese doing business outside of China and SunZi's art of war. Chinese also likes to gamble and likes face.

One thing that Chinese don't like is losing face infront of others, that's why Chinese families tend to cultivate their children to be scholars or rich businessman or high ranking officials so that the family has face. Such is the culture of Chinese that this may inhibits people from venturing into something that is out of the norm, something that may lose face. Due to this nature, Chinese culture don't really encourage scientist or inventors although Chinese have a few people invented paper, firepowder and others.

I like to use Chinese as an example for culture as I know Chinese the best out of the many races.