Seems like vaccine efficacy is now negative?

Mystyque

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Well, looking at 2020 "healthy no need wear mask" and our 150k dorm cases, I'm actually thinking it must be either the air or water that we drink that somehow results in so little deaths.

Maybe LKY's 8-sided $1 coin is giving protection. That protection is failing against Delta tho.

Soon Delta Plus / Mu start owning ez-link card to board SBS buses.
I posted before that researchers are looking into potential correlation between BCG vaccinated population and lower infection/fatalities rate.
 

wwenze

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I posted before that researchers are looking into potential correlation between BCG vaccinated population and lower infection/fatalities rate.

I saw one that says maybe but no conclusion.

So Singapore and Taiwan remains

FreeObedientAlleycat-size_restricted.gif


Must be the air lor. Or maybe hating communism.
 

zeroman

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Math, the same one used to get 95% efficacy.

Lets consider a population of 100,000 people where 80% are vaccinated and 20% are not.

And use the same infection rate in the pfizer mrna vaccine phase 3 trial, a mere 0.8% for the unvaccinated and 0.04% for the vaccinated (0.8 less 0.04 divide by 0.8 was what they meant by 95% efficacy).

In the 80/20 vaccinated 100,000 population, if 0.8% of the unvaccinated (160) are infected, then at 95% efficacy you can expect only 0.04% of the vaccinated (32) to be infected.

This means no more than 32/192 = 16.67% of the cases should come from vaccinated IF vaccine efficacy is 95%.

What happens if 80% of the cases are vaccinated? That gives, if unvaccinated infected remains at 160, vaccinated infected would be 640 (640/total 800 = 80%).

640 out of 80,000 infected is 0.8%, the same as 160 out of 20,000, meaning an efficacy of zero.

What happens if 50% of the cases are vaccinated? That gives, if unvaccinated infected remains at 160, vaccinated infected would be the same 160.

160 out of 80,000 infected is 0.2%, meaning an efficacy of 0.6/0.8 = 75%.
 

clon33

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Latest MOH stats for 10 Sep 2021
figure3_10sep2021.png




The percentage of infected vaccinated is about 1/3 higher than the unvaxxed infection rate. So if my calculations is not wrong, the vaccine current efficacy is negative 33.9%. I.e. vaccinated are more likely to get infected :s13:

Ah Bang,

Did you email MOH and PAP Minister Ong Ye Kun that the vaccine effectiveness is negative?

The vaccinated are 20% more likely to be infected compared to unvaccinated.

Relative risk (RR) = 1.20
Absolute risk reduction (ARR) = -0.00013
Relative risk reduction (RRR) = -0.20

Screenshot-20210911-182946-Sheets.jpg
 

Dilemma6

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Latest MOH stats for 10 Sep 2021
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The percentage of infected vaccinated is about 1/3 higher than the unvaxxed infection rate. So if my calculations is not wrong, the vaccine current efficacy is negative 33.9%. I.e. vaccinated are more likely to get infected :s13:

Kum gong way of looking at data.
vaccinated means greatly reducing the chance of hospitalisation, its not targeting infection rate.

out of 1000 people infected:
for unvaccinated = 45 hospitalised = 37 needed oxygen supplementation, 3 in ICU, 5 died = 4.5%
For vaccinated = 7 hospitalised = 7 needed oxygen supplementation. 0 in ICU, 0 died = = 0.7%

We have 5m people in SG
if 5m infected, that's preventing 3.8% of infected hospitalisation = 190k being hospitalised
Vaccination is the way to stop the collapse of our medical system.
 

TurboBumbleBee

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Kum gong way of looking at data.
vaccinated means greatly reducing the chance of hospitalisation, its not targeting infection rate.

out of 1000 people infected:
for unvaccinated = 45 hospitalised = 37 needed oxygen supplementation, 3 in ICU, 5 died = 4.5%
For vaccinated = 7 hospitalised = 7 needed oxygen supplementation. 0 in ICU, 0 died = = 0.7%

We have 5m people in SG
if 5m infected, that's preventing 3.8% of infected hospitalisation = 190k being hospitalised
Vaccination is the way to stop the collapse of our medical system.
Actually u should look up how the vaccine efficacy was calculated when they first boasted 95% efficacy…
It’s exactly like this
 

Mystyque

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Kum gong way of looking at data.
vaccinated means greatly reducing the chance of hospitalisation, its not targeting infection rate.

out of 1000 people infected:
for unvaccinated = 45 hospitalised = 37 needed oxygen supplementation, 3 in ICU, 5 died = 4.5%
For vaccinated = 7 hospitalised = 7 needed oxygen supplementation. 0 in ICU, 0 died = = 0.7%

We have 5m people in SG
if 5m infected, that's preventing 3.8% of infected hospitalisation = 190k being hospitalised
Vaccination is the way to stop the collapse of our medical system.

I know right, so kumgong that’s why Pfizer used the same method, that’s why FDA accepted it and that’s why PAP trumpeted it. Until the results no longer matches their needs :s13:
 

Mystyque

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Ah Bang,

Did you email MOH and PAP Minister Ong Ye Kun that the vaccine effectiveness is negative?

The vaccinated are 20% more likely to be infected compared to unvaccinated.

Relative risk (RR) = 1.20
Absolute risk reduction (ARR) = -0.00013
Relative risk reduction (RRR) = -0.20

Screenshot-20210911-182946-Sheets.jpg

Why need to email them? They got more data than us, earlier than us and better statisticians who can do predictive faster.

After hitting 80% vaccination KPI, it should be safer for everybody already right? But why PAP suddenly ask everybody to minimize interactions, don’t socialize blah blah? :s13:
 

pikafunk3

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Latest MOH stats for 10 Sep 2021
figure3_10sep2021.png




The percentage of infected vaccinated is about 1/3 higher than the unvaxxed infection rate. So if my calculations is not wrong, the vaccine current efficacy is negative 33.9%. I.e. vaccinated are more likely to get infected :s13:
What shiate is this
Vaxx cases are about 80%
Unvaxxed cases is 20%

Singapore vaxx rate is 80%

But

Unvaxxed have more restrictions

This proves that vaxxing works, and if you vaxx, you can remove restrictions.


Very hard to understand meh?
 
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