Which Direction Will Property Prices Go ?

CaptainSGP

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This video about 11:00 explains why ccr and certain more central area, price seem reasonable but difficult to exit.
Even if PR8 can find buyers at 2xxx psf, does not mean there are upgrader/ ready buyers at 23xx psf for central regions?

(Upgraders prefer areas they are familiar with either the Pasir Risians or the tampinians or the jurongians...)




###

Curious to find out what’s NiShiZhu’s thoughts on the following comments Aaron made:

1) Cannot compare New Launch & Resale. Have to take into account building aging, lease decay, maintenance issues etc.

2) Have very rarely seen ppl make money from buying older resale (other than enbloc)

Asking NiShiZhu as you seem (Correct me if I’m wrong) to be advocating resale compared to current New Launches.

Personally, I don’t see any attractively priced properties in both resale & new launch now.
 
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NiShiZhu

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Curious to find out what’s NiShiZhu’s thoughts on the following comments Aaron made:

1) Cannot compare New Launch & Resale. Have to take into account building aging, lease decay, maintenance issues etc.

2) Have very rarely seen ppl make money from buying older resale (other than enbloc)

Asking NiShiZhu as you seem (Correct me if I’m wrong) to be advocating resale compared to current New Launches.

Personally, I don’t see any attractively priced properties in both resale & new launch now.
hi bro,

1) haha, did I mentioned resale must always be buying those old old type with lease decay?

2) sometimes, I like to buy those resale that r still under subsale or just newly TOP units. For example, some 2018 units on propguru listing are still asking at near 2018 price. U really need to keep track of theses new launch pricing at different years and look hard to find them.
This is very prevalent for those projects that r not meant for self stay type but mainly for investment type. U won’t get to find them in OCR usually, because buyers r usually buying for self stay and they r prepared to hold long term. It’s mostly found in RCR or CCR where buyers bought for investment purpose. Because some of these investors did not buy and plan to hold long term to begin with, they usually hold for 3 years and when they realised not much profit margin, they may want to do a quick exit at breakeven or sell at thin profit margin. So, for such cases, why do I want to buy new launch at 2021 price when I can get newly top projects at 2018 price if it’s for investment purpose?

3) with current and upcoming ridiculous prices in new launches, I can say in 2024/2025, u will get to buy some of these units cheaper than what u bought in 2021.

4) if buy for self stay, it’s different. for example, in 2006, I bought a newly TOP resale at a price 100k plus higher than my neighbours who bought during launch. But I know this unit is very big size unit and it’s gonna be a self stay unit for me in the next 10 years. So I stayed from 2006 to 2017 and sold it off. Still made around 400k. Coz self stay means time is on my side mah, even though I pay 100k more than my neighbour who bought during new launch. Of coz some of my neighbour more huat than me if they exit the same time as me. But u will be surprised I can still be more huat than some of my neighbours though they bought cheaper than me. Why? Because they exit in 2015 (property lull period) and I exit in 2017 (where property price starts to pick up during massive enbloc).

5) to summaries, i can time my enter and exit plan. But I can’t time so accurately when is the highest and when in the lowest price point. I don’t really advocate die die must buy resale or new launch. I actually quite flexible tbh. I simply just don’t like to buy in a seller’s market. I only like to buy in buyer’s market coz there’s usually more choices to choose from and price r usually more negotiable.

Just sharing my Two cents :o
 
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wetdreamx

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hi bro,

1) haha, did I mentioned resale must always be buying those old old type with lease decay?

2) sometimes, I like to buy those resale that r still under subsale or just newly TOP units. For example, some 2018 units on propguru listing are still asking at near 2018 price. U really need to keep track of theses new launch pricing at different years and look hard to find them.
This is very prevalent for those projects that r not meant for self stay type but mainly for investment type. U won’t get to find them in OCR usually, because buyers r usually buying for self stay and they r prepared to hold long term. It’s mostly found in RCR or CCR where buyers bought for investment purpose. Because some of these investors did not buy and plan to hold long term to begin with, they usually hold for 3 years and when they realised not much profit margin, they may want to do a quick exit at breakeven or sell at thin profit margin. So, for such cases, why do I want to buy new launch at 2021 price when I can get newly top projects at 2018 price if it’s for investment purpose?

3) with current and upcoming ridiculous prices in new launches, I can say in 2024/2025, u will get to buy some of these units cheaper than u what bought in 2021.

4) if buy for self stay, it’s different. for example, in 2006, I bought a newly TOP resale at a price 100k plus higher than my neighbours who bought during launch. But I know this unit is very big size unit and it’s gonna be a self stay unit for me in the next 10 years. So I stayed from 2006 to 2017 and sold it off. Still made around 400k. Coz self stay means time is on my side mah, even though I pay 100k more than my neighbour who bought during new launch. Of coz some of my neighbour more huat than me if they exit the same time as me. But u will be surprised I can still be more huat than some of my neighbours though they bought cheaper than me. Why? Because they exit in 2015 (property lull period) and I exit in 2017 (where property price starts to pick up during massive enbloc).

5) to summaries, i can time my enter and exit plan. But I can’t time so accurately when is the highest and when in the lowest price point. I don’t really advocate die die must buy resale or new launch. I actually quite flexible tbh. I simply just don’t like to buy in a seller’s market. I only like to buy in buyer’s market coz there’s usually more choices to choose from and price r usually more negotiable.

Just sharing my Two cents :o
I like point number 3!

If I may ask regarding point 4 sifu, you exit earn but sell high also buy high mah, so what’s the best strategy after selling your property that made you 400k during that time?
 

NiShiZhu

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I like point number 3!

If I may ask regarding point 4 sifu, you exit earn but sell high also buy high mah, so what’s the best strategy after selling your property that made you 400k during that time?
I would like to pull out some years that r very unique in property market.
1) 2007 - while massive enbloc start to take place and property price starts to pick up, there’s still value buys in market.
2) 2012 - while many says 2012 is the peak, but interestingly, I bought 2 properties in 2012 and they still make decent money. But if i bought during 2013, then really gg. U see, one year gap can make so much difference.
3) 2017- is basically the same as 2007, year of massive enbloc and price starts to pick up, but u still can sell at decent price and buy at decent price eg seaside residence at 16xxpsf/17xxpsf.
it is also the year many foreigner starts to enter the market and buy CCR like new futura.
Because property lull period starts from 2014-2016, market needs to take some time to react.

The above 3 has one thing in common, that is known as “transition period” or we call it, start of bull cycle.
I like to enter or exit during these periods because I’m not selling low and I’m not buying at highest. Of coz, u need to react fast because the window period is usually very short.
lastly, on top of self stay unit, always hold on to another property so that when u sell off, u got somewhere to stay before u wait out patiently and starts to hunt again. :o
 
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Hyphos

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I'm not as experienced as NiShiZhu shifu above but I would just like to chip in my experience.

First property (own stay), bought 2rm 99LH condo at 969 psf in 2018 (TOP 2014). Owner was going overseas for long term posting, so damn lucky I managed to get this good deal. Sold this year for 1143 psf.

Second property (own stay, use wife's name), bought 3rm FH condo at 1280 psf this year (TOP 2010). Owner is foreigner, currently overseas due to covid and wanted to let go - he/she bought it at 1261 psf 10 years ago it's huge loss for him/her while for me it's only marginal top up.

Now my third property which I buying for investment, I eyeing a 99LH condo (4 years old) which have 6 real listings for the layout I'm keen in. They are all asking 1.3K+ psf, but my target price is 1.27K psf. Some of them selling because migrating or want to upgrade soon, and so far like not many buyer offers, so for me I won't budge until I get my price. I am not in urgent rush to buy so I am willing to wait them out.

Even in seller's market, I believe can always find resale property owners who are urgent or keen to let go at low price, just need to be patient. It will be easier to earn than if you buy at market price.
 

Mokette

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I'm not as experienced as NiShiZhu shifu above but I would just like to chip in my experience.

First property (own stay), bought 2rm 99LH condo at 969 psf in 2018 (TOP 2014). Owner was going overseas for long term posting, so damn lucky I managed to get this good deal. Sold this year for 1143 psf.

Second property (own stay, use wife's name), bought 3rm FH condo at 1280 psf this year (TOP 2010). Owner is foreigner, currently overseas due to covid and wanted to let go - he/she bought it at 1261 psf 10 years ago it's huge loss for him/her while for me it's only marginal top up.

Now my third property which I buying for investment, I eyeing a 99LH condo (4 years old) which have 6 real listings for the layout I'm keen in. They are all asking 1.3K+ psf, but my target price is 1.27K psf. Some of them selling because migrating or want to upgrade soon, and so far like not many buyer offers, so for me I won't budge until I get my price. I am not in urgent rush to buy so I am willing to wait them out.

Even in seller's market, I believe can always find resale property owners who are urgent or keen to let go at low price, just need to be patient. It will be easier to earn than if you buy at market price.
Care to share your investment property District that you are eyeing? And why 4 years old?
 

TeamUSA

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This video about 11:00 explains why ccr and certain more central area, price seem reasonable but difficult to exit.
Even if PR8 can find buyers at 2xxx psf, does not mean there are upgrader/ ready buyers at 23xx psf for central regions?

(Upgraders prefer areas they are familiar with either the Pasir Risians or the tampinians or the jurongians...)




###

I would rather top up 700 psf to stay at midtown modern (also direct link to MRT, integrated development, much less supply in area) then PR8. This is so ridiculous. So many idiots around.
 

fluxos

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I would rather top up 700 psf to stay at midtown modern (also direct link to MRT, integrated development, much less supply in area) then PR8. This is so ridiculous. So many idiots around.
the top up game... 3 bedder 900sqft Midtown will cost 2.5M. I rather top up a bit more stay in landed than squeeze in a 900sqft.
 

NiShiZhu

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I noticed that properties that r priced near 2.8-3kpsf always suffer the fate of price stagnation or losses. Maybe also your targeted audience is lesser when reach certain psf range.
 

Hyphos

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Care to share your investment property District that you are eyeing? And why 4 years old?

I got my insights from this video. It's long but got a lot of good info. Main things I took away:

1. For 99LH, the best profits are from new launch to TOP, 5 - 10 yrs from TOP, and 10 - 15 yrs from TOP.
2. When you sell your place, the majority of the buyers will be locals - you should target districts with high number of HDB MOPs in the coming years. He got show the data for this, I forgot which timestamp.





Anyway, I'm looking at resale because new launch prices now too high, though I plan to try for Watergardens if really can get 1.3-1.4K psf on first day.

EDIT: My first point I meant to say 99LH, not resale.
 
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ThinkCarefully

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the top up game... 3 bedder 900sqft Midtown will cost 2.5M. I rather top up a bit more stay in landed than squeeze in a 900sqft.

###

that’s the problem higher psf ccr and more centrally located condo face:
1.
Heartlanders prefer heartlands, so who will buy and how to exit?

2.
If quantum too high, may as well go landed...

###
 

arctician

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basically 2 things sum up for me

1) Time vested in market is better than trying to time the market

2) Resale buyers can pay below fair value, while new launch has to pay fair value

regardless of new or old, profit is made at point of purchase not point of sale, as long as buyers remember this, it will be difficult to lose money.
 

CaptainSGP

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hi bro,

1) haha, did I mentioned resale must always be buying those old old type with lease decay?

2) sometimes, I like to buy those resale that r still under subsale or just newly TOP units. For example, some 2018 units on propguru listing are still asking at near 2018 price. U really need to keep track of theses new launch pricing at different years and look hard to find them.
This is very prevalent for those projects that r not meant for self stay type but mainly for investment type. U won’t get to find them in OCR usually, because buyers r usually buying for self stay and they r prepared to hold long term. It’s mostly found in RCR or CCR where buyers bought for investment purpose. Because some of these investors did not buy and plan to hold long term to begin with, they usually hold for 3 years and when they realised not much profit margin, they may want to do a quick exit at breakeven or sell at thin profit margin. So, for such cases, why do I want to buy new launch at 2021 price when I can get newly top projects at 2018 price if it’s for investment purpose?

3) with current and upcoming ridiculous prices in new launches, I can say in 2024/2025, u will get to buy some of these units cheaper than what u bought in 2021.

4) if buy for self stay, it’s different. for example, in 2006, I bought a newly TOP resale at a price 100k plus higher than my neighbours who bought during launch. But I know this unit is very big size unit and it’s gonna be a self stay unit for me in the next 10 years. So I stayed from 2006 to 2017 and sold it off. Still made around 400k. Coz self stay means time is on my side mah, even though I pay 100k more than my neighbour who bought during new launch. Of coz some of my neighbour more huat than me if they exit the same time as me. But u will be surprised I can still be more huat than some of my neighbours though they bought cheaper than me. Why? Because they exit in 2015 (property lull period) and I exit in 2017 (where property price starts to pick up during massive enbloc).

5) to summaries, i can time my enter and exit plan. But I can’t time so accurately when is the highest and when in the lowest price point. I don’t really advocate die die must buy resale or new launch. I actually quite flexible tbh. I simply just don’t like to buy in a seller’s market. I only like to buy in buyer’s market coz there’s usually more choices to choose from and price r usually more negotiable.

Just sharing my Two cents :o
Thanks for the great points. Especially on Market Timing vs Entry price part. I think market timing (when u buy/sell) is not as frequently discussed as it deserves to be.

Do you think the 2018 cooling measures when the ABSD is raised to 12% has significantly shifted the buyer base from investors to own stay & removed speculative buying? And if this is the case, will your point 2 (i.e Paper Hands) still hold moving forward?

On point 3, lets revisit this post in 2024/2025.

Personally, i think prices for OCR/RCR new launches in the last year that manage to sell >50% within 6 months from launch will have big price appreciation on TOP. Lets see the prices for NP, PR8, Clavon, Penrose, ONE, Ki at TOP.
 

ThinkCarefully

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basically 2 things sum up for me

1) Time vested in market is better than trying to time the market

2) Resale buyers can pay below fair value, while new launch has to pay fair value

regardless of new or old, profit is made at point of purchase not point of sale, as long as buyers remember this, it will be difficult to lose money.

###


point 2 should read
...new launch buyers must pay what developers demand of them as fair price to the developers
(after all developers are profit driven not charity)

###
 
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TeamUSA

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the top up game... 3 bedder 900sqft Midtown will cost 2.5M. I rather top up a bit more stay in landed than squeeze in a 900sqft.
Er, bro... when compare, its ceteris paribus (attributes must be the same)... for purpose of comparison with PR8 i used midtown modern as an example as its also a condo with direct linkage to MRT and with retail and F&B tenants within development.. Where got landed with same attributes?
 

fluxos

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Er, bro... when compare, its ceteris paribus (attributes must be the same)... for purpose of comparison with PR8 i used midtown modern as an example as its also a condo with direct linkage to MRT and with retail and F&B tenants within development.. Where got landed with same attributes?
Not trying to pick a fight with you, as I agree your comparison is fair (ie; integrated development).

The problem here is the quantum increase is too significant to ignore 3bedder 1.8M PR8 vs. 2.5M MM. Most will be able to stomach a 1.8M 3 bedder, especially for an integrated development, but if you were to up it to 2.5M budget, the choices are different.

Personally, I would not pay 2.5M for a 900sqft condo, regardless of where it is. With 2.5M budget, I would demand a larger condo at least 1200-1400sqft, even if it is a few minutes walk away from the integrated development OR top up a bit and go with landed.
 

ThinkCarefully

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I noticed that properties that r priced near 2.8-3kpsf always suffer the fate of price stagnation or losses. Maybe also your targeted audience is lesser when reach certain psf range.

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exactly. That’s why always look for lower entry for growth, even ocr, if enter at 13xx of 14xx psf... to ask for 17xx is likely more do-able than centrally located unit starting at 25xx psf and needing to exit at 3xxx psf for the same % upside.


also, if overall quantum reaches like 2.5 to 3 mil, many may actually consider landed...which is not far from this..

###
 

wetdreamx

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exactly. That’s why always look for lower entry for growth, even ocr, if enter at 13xx of 14xx psf... to ask for 17xx is likely more do-able than centrally located unit starting at 25xx psf and needing to exit at 3xxx psf for the same % upside.


also, if overall quantum reaches like 2.5 to 3 mil, many may actually consider landed...which is not far from this..

###
True, that’s why some CCR died hard.. OCR always winner$
 
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