*Official* Forex Trading thread. (DYODD advised) - Part 2

[siaoboh]

While I was jiak hong in USA, on 22/01/2018 uncle Trump declared a steep 30% U.S. tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines.

China will not take this lying down. This trade war will play it out in 2018/2019 and combined with Fed's increased pace of rate hikes + balance sheet reduction, USD will strengthen instead of weakening. Right now the market has not fully priced in asset price drops yet.

If you have a large allocation of stocks and bonds I wish you all the best if you are not hedged. I hope my deduction is wrong but if not cash and gold will soar.

trade war, imo is a heaven for forex traders.

but i think jpy cannot be left out this year. might get windy in the yen.

 

[ipaq4444]

While I was jiak hong in USA, on 22/01/2018 uncle Trump declared a steep 30% U.S. tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines.

China will not take this lying down. This trade war will play it out in 2018/2019 and combined with Fed's increased pace of rate hikes + balance sheet reduction, USD will strengthen instead of weakening. Right now the market has not fully priced in asset price drops yet.

If you have a large allocation of stocks and bonds I wish you all the best if you are not hedged. I hope my deduction is wrong but if not cash and gold will soar.

what instrument wil you use to hedge it that can act it? USD/ Gold/Yen? directly?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Song boh stock punters? DJI closed with 4 figures at -1032 points again. SSE, HSI and Nikkei having bloodbath now!

You have nothing to fear if you got in at a good price and did not chase the buy the dips hype. Nothing to worry if no stop loss and not on margin trading.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

what instrument wil you use to hedge it that can act it? USD/ Gold/Yen? directly?

Someone has got to pay for the QE1/QE2/QE3 unwinding. That is the kum gong who bought into the asset inflation hype and did not get out in time as too greedy.

USD, EM currencies with high yields and hard assets to hedge.

 

[siaoboh]

Song boh stock punters? DJI closed with 4 figures at -1032 points again. SSE, HSI and Nikkei having bloodbath now!

You have nothing to fear if you got in at a good price and did not chase the buy the dips hype. Nothing to worry if no stop loss and not on margin trading.

actually wont die one lah.
too many hands supporting them below. even if it drop more, by next year this time, chances are, its another record high.
no us president have ever ended their term with a negative stock market.

besides what it is now, is a correction, well overdue. so lets see how it goes moving forward.

what is your exposure? i thought you are mainly fx?

 

[rider83]

When govt around the world starts to increase interest rates, I think we will have problems soon

US increase interest rates, our banks also increasing, putting pressure on debtors. Investment will be affected, especially properties...

UK yesterday gave a hawkish statement too... Soon they will do the same

Only left EU still printing money and will end 2nd half this year. Once they stop, then the global liquidity will get lesser and lesser.

Think Asia will be affected as these countries pull out their funds from here

 

[Mr.Canberra]

what is your exposure? i thought you are mainly fx?

100% Cash.

17% Forex Trading
30% Non-Stocks/Bonds assets
53% Fixed Income

Not touching stocks as leveraging with stocks has higher funding costs. If any brokerage firm offers me 0.0001% margin funding costs I will gladly switch to stocks.

By sticking to almost zero funding cost with Forex leveraging I can use lesser equity to derive ROI so more equity can remain in stable Fixed Income instruments passively earning on average 4-5% p.a. yields.

When govt around the world starts to increase interest rates, I think we will have problems soon

US increase interest rates, our banks also increasing, putting pressure on debtors. Investment will be affected, especially properties...

UK yesterday gave a hawkish statement too... Soon they will do the same

Only left EU still printing money and will end 2nd half this year. Once they stop, then the global liquidity will get lesser and lesser.

Think Asia will be affected as these countries pull out their funds from here

I am glad you are able to see the bigger picture. It is all about the central bank's balance sheet size. Unfortunately many have overlooked on this fact.

 

[siaoboh]

When govt around the world starts to increase interest rates, I think we will have problems soon

US increase interest rates, our banks also increasing, putting pressure on debtors. Investment will be affected, especially properties...

UK yesterday gave a hawkish statement too... Soon they will do the same

Only left EU still printing money and will end 2nd half this year. Once they stop, then the global liquidity will get lesser and lesser.

Think Asia will be affected as these countries pull out their funds from here

As with all hiking cycles, it ends in a crash of some sort. afterall, it is their intended purpose, to slow down inflation, and mitigate growth.
it is something that needs to be done, unfortunately, yellen got no O O to do it right, but i guess she is soft and pushed into her stance. Look at how poloz manage it from when crude traded under $30, till now. Sword of a surgeon. Sharp and precise.

I dont think ECB can manage 2H this year. lol. maybe more forward guidance but, EU is so fragile...

all trade full time here? or as a side?

 

[siaoboh]

100% Cash.

17% Forex Trading
30% Non-Stocks/Bonds assets
53% Fixed Income

Not touching stocks as leveraging with stocks has higher funding costs. If any brokerage firm offers me 0.0001% margin funding costs I will gladly switch to stocks.



I am glad you are able to see the bigger picture. It is all about the central bank's balance sheet size. Unfortunately many have refused to acknowledge this.

wah fix-income. must be nice time to go shopping.. sure nice to have $$ hor.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

wah fix-income. must be nice time to go shopping.. sure nice to have $$ hor.

I run my cash portfolio as a personal pension fund. Any time need to use money can just tap on it instantly. A good example is my recent USA jiak kong trip.

I do not believe in CPF system. Most Singaporeans are rich on paper only. Can see but cannot touch.

 

[siaoboh]

I run my cash portfolio as a personal pension fund. Any time need to use money can just tap on it instantly. A good example is my recent USA jiak kong trip.

I do not believe in CPF system. Most Singaporeans are rich on paper only. Can see but cannot touch.

Yea, I full agree with you.
CPF system is very flawed, the 401k is much much better. is ok to pay tax, just let us withdrawal and do as we wish.


buy yellow metal too?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

buy yellow metal too?

No extra funds to buy physical gold bars in 2017 as gold has no yield.

Any extra equity lying around will use it as margin to hoot Forex better for me lah. If position tio stucked can earn swap points also song. NO STOP LOSS of course.

My hands will be itchy if there is idle cash parking in bank account. Lock up idle cash in Forex positions better than spending it indiscriminately lah hahaha.

Now you guys know why my cash flow is always very tight because I use this to method to prevent myself from excessive spending on junk products and services.

 

[siaoboh]

No extra funds to buy physical gold bars in 2017 as gold has no yield.

Any extra equity lying around will use it as margin to hoot Forex better for me lah. If position tio stucked can earn swap points also song. NO STOP LOSS of course.

in long run, inflation alone can make it worth $$ ma.


so you only spec in +ve swap pair? market in -ve swap ones moved decent leh

 

[ExtremeWays]

No extra funds to buy physical gold bars in 2017 as gold has no yield.

Any extra equity lying around will use it as margin to hoot Forex better for me lah. If position tio stucked can earn swap points also song. NO STOP LOSS of course.

My hands will be itchy if there is idle cash parking in bank account. Lock up idle cash in Forex positions better than spending it indiscriminately lah hahaha.

Now you guys know why my cash flow is always very tight because I use this to method to prevent myself from excessive spending on junk products and services.

Discipline of ExtremeWays?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

China plans to launch crude oil futures on March 26 - sources

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...oil-futures-on-march-26-sources-idUSKBN1FT0P2

'Petroyuan' lai liao.

Not many people are positioned to take advantage of RMB's slowly but surely penetration into every day life.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Mr.Canberra Forex Trading Perfomance 2018

After USA jiak hong trip tabulate how much damage I incurred and did some book keeping and portfolio update.

____________________________________________________________
PROFIT & LOSS (REALISED) 2018

30/06/16 - 30/06/17: S$4003.67 [2016 ROI 27.61%]
31/07/17: S$1264.09 [Jul ROI 8.42%]
31/08/17: S$5806.60 [Aug ROI 35.69%]
30/09/17: S$4157.42 [Sep ROI 15.94%]
31/10/17: S$1944.68 [Oct ROI 5.85%]
30/11/17: -S$1843.27 [Nov ROI -5.24%]
29/12/17: S$1299.92 [DEC ROI 3.90%]
31/01/18: S$1565.13 [JAN ROI 4.52%]
08/02/18: S$299.31

~6 trading days till date for month of Feb 2018.

LIFETIME PERFORMANCE SINCE JUN 2016 (19 MONTHS)
101.10%

STRATEGY: CARRY TRADE/NO STOP LOSS
____________________________________________________________

 

[Mr.Canberra]

WISHING ALL PUNTERS A HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR!

I have come to a humble conclusion that this thread's activity is heightened only during the following events. Trolls participation excluded.

1) The Trump trade rally from Q1 to Q3 2017. Seems that every Ah Pig and Ah Dog trader is making money including lousy traders like me.
2) USD crashed badly since mid Jan 2018 causing chua sai boy to hurl verbal abuse at me for propagating NO STOP LOSS strategy. This incident is a good leverage for me to suan chua sai boy forever hahaha.

From personal experience my ROI is higher when volatility is high which is lacking for the past 6 months until DJI correction in the past week.

More volatility = huat.

WISHING ALL PUNTERS A HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR!
HUAT AHHH!
​

 

[havetheveryfun]

I have come to a humble conclusion that this thread's activity is heightened only during the following events. Trolls participation excluded.

1) The Trump trade rally from Q1 to Q3 2017. Seems that every Ah Pig and Ah Dog trader is making money including lousy traders like me.
2) USD crashed badly since mid Jan 2018 causing chua sai boy to hurl verbal abuse at me for propagating NO STOP LOSS strategy. This incident is a good leverage for me to suan chua sai boy forever hahaha.

From personal experience my ROI is higher when volatility is high which is lacking for the past 6 months until DJI correction in the past week.

More volatility = huat.

WISHING ALL PUNTERS A HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR!
HUAT AHHH!
​

who is chua sai boy ? daimon ?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Home Loan Rates To Rise

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/standard-chartered-bank-fdr-fixed-052038284.html

Inflection point is coming step by step. The signs are out there. Most people are very complacent and are not 'pricing in' for such events.

Remember that Mr.Canberra have told you so way in advance.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

who is chua sai boy ? daimon ?

All the regulars here will know who so will not be stating the obvious.