Market turmoil of Feb 2018

revhappy

revhappy

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Creating a thread for the ongoing turmoil in the markets. It is will be nice to jot down our thoughts and emotions in this thread, just in case this turmoil becomes historic, we can then look back and ponder :)

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FrontierX

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If u are worrying abt your portfolio, it means u shouldn’t hold that much in the first place
 
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limster

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I've been buying small amounts every day. Wonder what to buy today? :D

I'm just using up my GLP privatisation proceeds, haven't touched my regular warchest yet. :D
 
revhappy

revhappy

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To share my thoughts at this moment. About 25% of my networth is in equities. 10% gold and rest in fixed income. No house.

My game plan is to continue DCA this year put all new salary savings into equities. I should be able to add about 50K SGD into equities, or 6% of my current networth.

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simon_84

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FrontierX said:
If u are worrying abt your portfolio, it means u shouldn’t hold that much in the first place
Click to expand...

yup, in uncertain markets maybe is wiser not to hold too much.
keep at least 40% cash reserves for buying opportunities.
 
Kinetic88

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so many ppl never see big snake pee, DOW dropp 1,000 points ish small Wu see big Wu if chiu even come across Pan El, AFC and CLOB international. :s8:
 
Mecisteus

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I posted this in the US discussions thread.

MikeDirnt78 said:
I think it is not going to be easy to look at charts when identifying bottoms.

For long only investors, it is better to have such strategies assuming you have 100% capital left.

buy with 20% - on 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop

If index is down more than 50%, then you better sell house and wife to buy stocks. :s13::s13::s13:

Notes:
1) Use S&P500 as a market reference. Not sector specific index like Nasdaq.
2) S&P500 worst declines were 86%, 60% and 57% in 1929, 1937 and 2007 respectively.

Personally, I think this correction is 20% max only. Now we are around 11% fall.
Click to expand...

Share if you have some other better systematic strategies.
 
revhappy

revhappy

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MikeDirnt78 said:
I think it is not going to be easy to look at charts when identifying bottoms.

For long only investors, it is better to have such strategies assuming you have 100% capital left.

buy with 20% - on 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop
buy with 20% - next 10% market drop

If index is down more than 50%, then you better sell house and wife to buy stocks. :s13::s13::s13:

Notes:
1) Use S&P500 as a market reference. Not sector specific index like Nasdaq.
2) S&P500 worst declines were 86%, 60% and 57% in 1929, 1937 and 2007 respectively.

Personally, I think this correction is 20% max only. Now we are around 11% fall.
Click to expand...
I am giving 50% chances that this correction will not end before the end of the year. Lower highs and lower lows until end of the year. By the end of the year we should be about 50% down.

This is why I am planning to continue with DCA rather than trying to buy the dip and increase allocation. If markets indeed fall 50%, I will increase my allocation.

Sent from Xiaomi REDMI NOTE 4 using GAGT
 
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Mecisteus

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revhappy said:
I am giving 50% chances that this correction will not end before the end of the year. Lower highs and lower lows until end of the year. By the end of the year we should be about 50% down.

This is why I am planning to continue with DCA rather than trying to buy the dip and increase allocation. If markets indeed fall 50%, I will increase my allocation.

Sent from Xiaomi REDMI NOTE 4 using GAGT
Click to expand...

That's like literally flipping a coin that market correction is over or not over.

US economy is stronger now. Corporate profits are getting stronger. Oil price has recovered. I don't foresee any major calamity events that could trigger a 50% fall.
 
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light84

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This is nothing. I guess you haven seen the likes of the sub prime crisis or AFC where almost everyday is red and the only green is a dead cat bounce to suck more people in. It goes red until people just give up on stock market but that is the best time to buy.

My strategy is similar to MikeDirnt78 but I will open my warchest at every 10 to 15% drop.

My only regret is my warchest is not huge enough.
 
revhappy

revhappy

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MikeDirnt78 said:
That's like literally flipping a coin that market correction is over or not over.

US economy is stronger now. Corporate profits are getting stronger. Oil price has recovered. I don't foresee any major calamity events that could trigger a 50% fall.
Click to expand...
I hope you are right. But when a correction comes after so long and after so much of leverage and one way bets getting built into the system, I doubt it is going to be a 1 week or 1 month thing. It takes time to unwind. Confidence has been dented badly. When markets go up all bad news is ignored and good news moves the market up. Now during a downturn the opposite is true. We have lots of triggers lined up for downside, trade wars, real wars, inflation, removal of stimulus etc

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Mecisteus

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With the proliferation of algos and high speed computers, a flash crash and bear market may happen in days instead of the usual months.

In this example, we have already seen 10% fall in a few days. If market falls another 10%, I think this correction is going to be over quickly.

What goes down fast in stocks, will bounce back equally fast. Unlike due to gravity, what goes down, will never go up again. :D

So the magnitude is important not the period of the bear. My opinion is 20% max correction. But I will prepare for a 50% fall.
 
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xitrumch

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MikeDirnt78 said:
I posted this in the US discussions thread.



Share if you have some other better systematic strategies.
Click to expand...

Your strategy is best when your warchest is large enough to make 20% deployment a meaningful one, and a 10% market drop happen often enough.

For average people (myself for example), a 20% deployment could hardly make a dent even when we are not already invested.

That strategy may end up with you sitting on a large pile of cash reserve and missed out on the bull run during 2017.
 
Mecisteus

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light84 said:
This is nothing. I guess you haven seen the likes of the sub prime crisis or AFC where almost everyday is red and the only green is a dead cat bounce to suck more people in. It goes red until people just give up on stock market but that is the best time to buy.

My strategy is similar to MikeDirnt78 but I will open my warchest at every 10 to 15% drop.

My only regret is my warchest is not huge enough.
Click to expand...

Yeah I went through the last crisis. I got smacked during the early period of the decline. I used up my capital too quickly.

By the time the market bottomed, I don't have enough bullets except to leverage with CC balance transfers.

This time around I am just 26% (stocks/(stocks+cash) invested.
 
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buaytuckchek

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Time to jump into the market? Last year Feb also drop until laosai... STI was like $2.5 and DBS was like $15. Now waiting to enter even thought my existing paper loss is 9%, (but I've hit my this year target for realised gain.)
 
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ceciltan

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I Guess if market want to correct itself. Just give us a one time shoik shoik correction of 50%, call it a day and restart the bull again. Dun keep us in suspense how Low and fast it can drop.
 
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Mergui219067

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This report ‘incidentally’ coincided with recent high :o

lkZKWaL.jpg


This time is different 😳 HardwareZone Forums app
 
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