Ho Bee Land *Official* (SGX: H13)

Perisher

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Seeing as I'm a small vested holder, I scratch my head and wonder why this counter is falling... Many sites and analysis has positive rating...

The gearing is 30%, P/B is 0.53
http://foreverfinancialfreedom.blogspot.sg/2015/06/recent-action-fraser-commercial-trust.html

Ho Bee recently announced the sale of an industrial property in Singapore, expected to bring about $7 mil in profits for the company. Development property sales should continue to be challenging in the current year but strong rental revenue from its offices and residential properties should help the company to weather the storm until better economic conditions appear.

http://www.investark.com/Analysis56hobee1q15.html

Market has" ' overdiscounted" challenges facing developers: UOB Kay Hian

March 30, 2015 : 4:26 PM

SINGAPORE (March 30): Investors have " overdiscounted" headwinds facing Singapore-listed property developers such as Wing Tai Holdings and CapitaLand , whose current share prices offer deep value, according to UOB Kay Hian.


One such headwind is rising mortgage rates.

Housing loans are becoming more expensive following the sharp rise lately in the Singapore interbank offered rate (Sibor) and the Swap Offer Rate. Sibor has gone up to more than 1% from 0.4% in the past four months.

Still, affordability remains manageable, according to UOB Kay Hian analysts Vikrant Pandey and Derek Chang, who estimate that every one percentage point rise in interest rates will lead to a $500 increase in monthly mortgage payments for a $1 million, 25-year housing loan.

" Those who are able to rent out their units will continue seeing positive carry as rental yields of 2.5% to 3.5% exceed mortgage rates of 1.5%-2%," they wrote in a note.

The total debt servicing ratio used by banks offers another safeguard, they said, as it factors in a much higher mortgage rate of 3.5% in assessing loan eligibility while actual loans charge lower rates of 1.5% to 2%.

" This leaves room for another 100- to 150-basis-point rise in mortgage rates before the borrower' s ability to repay is impacted," they noted.

That said, property investors are finding it harder to rent out units as more completed homes are released into the market and the number of foreigners in Singapore decreases, pushing up vacancy rates, they said.

" Another 100-basis-point rise in Sibor, or alternatively a 30% drop in rents from here on, would result in the positive carry situation turning into a negative carry situation."

UOB Kay Hian has " buy" calls on Wing Tai, CapitaLand, GuocoLand , Ho Bee Land and OUE and respective price targets of $2.50, $4.08, $2.48, $2.68 and $2.80.
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharej...e=Ho Bee Land&topicTitle=Why Ho Bee UP and UP.

RHB Research 2015-07-06: Ho Bee Land - Strong Balance Sheet, Substantial Exposure in Sentosa. Maintain BUY.

Prices of residential units in Sentosa Cove had plunged sharply in the last few years but transactions are now picking up as buyers stepped up their buying amid a sense that prices have bottomed out.
At The Oceanfront, two condominium units were sold in the $2000 psf range in April, a price not seen since October 2012 where a unit was sold at $2,190 psf. One of the two units was a 2,788 sq ft four-bedder which sold for $5.73m ($2,055 psf) while the other unit was a $1,765 sq ft three-bedder which sold at $3.45m ($1,954 psf).
Other projects in the enclave, from Seascape to The Coast and Turquoise, had also seen a pickup in transactions with done deals ranging from $1400-1600 psf.
We think the play on Sentosa properties is still ultimately about the scarcity story, with a limited stock of some 2000 plus units. The biggest player there is Ho Bee Land (HOBEE SP), which clinched eight sites on the island since 2003 and have since sold most of the projects there, raking in $800m of profits which were recycled to acquire investment properties in Singapore and London.
Its remaining exposure in Sentosa is still substantial: we estimate its portfolio of completed units in Turquoise, Seascape and Cape Royale to be worth some $700-800m.
Most of these units are currently rented out as management awaits a turn in the residential cycle.
Meanwhile, the group has a strong balance sheet with net gearing at a modest 0.3x, and enjoys a stream of recurring income from its investment properties that puts the company in good stead even as the residential market remains uncertain in the near term.
We maintain our BUY rating on the stock and $2.60 TP, which is premised on a 35% discount to our RNAV of $4.01.

http://sgshareinvestor.blogspot.sg/2015/07/rhb-research-2015-07-06-ho-bee-land.html

Need to know why the fall is so drastic.
 
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Perisher

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Despite Singapore's weak real estate market, property tycoon Chua Thian Poh enters Forbes' Billionaire ranks for the first time on new information about his private holdings, which include a stake in chocolate retailer FNA Group. Shares in his property developer Ho Bee Land, known for developing posh condos in Sentosa Cove, have fallen in the past six months but earnings stayed aloft thanks to steady rentals from its two office towers at The Metropolis in Singapore and two prime office buildings in London. To offset the sluggish home market, Ho Bee is continuing expanding abroad; in October, it bought another London office building in Covent Garden for $68 million.

http://www.forbes.com/profile/thian-poh-chua/

Ho Bee Land: Sale Of Forte No. 29 New Industrial Road For S$66 Million.
29 Jun 2015 17:43
Ho Bee Land Limited's wholly-owned subsidiary, Ho Bee Realty Pte Ltd, has entered into a contract for the sale of Forte, a block of 8-storey high-tech industrial building located at No. 29 New Industrial Road, Singapore 536213 to Laura Ashley (Asia) Pte. Ltd.. The Property with a net lettable area of 98,254 square feet is sold to the Purchaser who is a sole tenant under a tenancy agreement dated 12 December 2014. The sale price of S$66 million worked out to approximately S$672 per square feet. The sale is expected to yield a net gain of approximately S$6.9 million...
http://www.btinvest.com.sg/markets/news/114803.html?source=si_news

Is Ho Bee Land keeping a commercial REIT hidden up its sleeve?

Its commercial portfolio stands at over $2b.

Ho Bee Land is most easily associated with its luxury residential developments. Its high-profile residential developments often overshadow its substantial commercial portfolio, which analysts say might eventually be injected into a commercial REIT.

UOB Kay Hian analysts Vikrant Pandey and Derek Chang say that Ho Bee’s commercial portfolio currently stands in excess of $2b, which could well pave the way for a commercial REIT spin-off.

The group’s portfolio was propelled by The Metropolis, which saw valuation gains of $270m as of end-14. Committed occupancy at The Metropolis has reached 98% by NLA, with current asking rents at S$7-8 psf pm.

“With the acquisition of two additional commercial properties in London last year, the possibility of a commercial REIT spin-off looks increasingly distinct. We reckon that future commercial acquisitions are likely to be the tipping point for the establishment of a commercial REIT, with potential significant revaluation gains adding further impetus for capital recycling,” they said.

http://sbr.com.sg/commercial-proper...l-reit-hidden-its-sleeve#sthash.tBbkpEkc.dpuf
 

martin

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Sigh, i also want to know.

Perisher bro, you are my idol. I followed you and vested at 2.21 and and its been downhill all the way since. So low PE doesn't mean good!
 

Perisher

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Sigh, i also want to know.

Perisher bro, you are my idol. I followed you and vested at 2.21 and and its been downhill all the way since. So low PE doesn't mean good!

omg... didn't know I got a fan. Thank arh. Haha. I suggest not to follow me though. My stakes are low and widely diversified. US counters are easier for me to made a sure bet. I can get tons of information just using SA, not to mention all the other sites. All these information help me form a informed decision.

SG counters is less widely discussed. Looking for numbers and analysis is damn difficult. I'm lazy to run through the numbers or even calculate all these things. That's why my SG counters are mostly blue chips.

Anyway, I still have no idea why this counter plunge like that other than general news like

'One such headwind is rising mortgage rates.
Housing loans are becoming more expensive following the sharp rise lately in the Singapore interbank offered rate (Sibor) and the Swap Offer Rate. Sibor has gone up to more than 1% from 0.4% in the past four months. '

And it seems no one else here has any interest.
I'm vested and considering to average down at 1.9 level, if it plunge further from this level then I won't buy liao. Will wait and see.
On the other side, I added Kingsmen Creative and bidding for MM2. DYODD.
 
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HaplessN

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As a small retail investor, this counter really doesn't appeal to me. It's long term debt shot up massively since 2013. From something along the lines of 100 million to 1.3 billion at third quarter 2015. Of course, the company's profits shot up significantly, if you pump this amount of capital into it. I haven't done much research on it so take everything I say with a grain of salt, but I would say the drop in share price is the market pricing in the substantial risk.

Unless you really understand their business model very well, it's not worth investing in a company that is increasing their leverage massively, without a corresponding high return on capital. Also, they have very little cash reserves so if their business turns south, there is little margin of safety and they have to pile on more and more debt to survive, a perpetual black hole

That's why I really dislike reading those analyst reports and stock pundits analysis. Ultimately the company's balance sheet speaks volumes and all these fanciful reports on the business prospects and model tend to obsfucate the fundamentals of the business, which is what counts the most usually.
 
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wahkao3

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As a small retail investor, this counter really doesn't appeal to me. It's long term debt shot up massively since 2013. From something along the lines of 100 million to 1.3 billion at third quarter 2015. Of course, the company's profits shot up significantly, if you pump this amount of capital into it. I haven't done much research on it so take everything I say with a grain of salt, but I would say the drop in share price is the market pricing in the substantial risk.
dont look at their debt on an absolute term, look at it on a relative term


That's why I really dislike reading those analyst reports and stock pundits analysis. Ultimately the company's balance sheet speaks volumes and all these fanciful reports on the business prospects and model tend to obsfucate the fundamentals of the business, which is what counts the most usually.

agreed:o
 

cubana

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hobee broke its multiyr 2006-2016 bull trendline last mth.

now its righ at 23.6% fib retracement n still below broken trendline.

unless it recovers above 2.0, possible lower target is 1.6-1.7, near the 38.2% retracement.

id short this stock on strength as long as its below 2.0
 
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Takodoro

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Chart looks interesting so went and see see...SGX website put TP $3.08. Then I see:
- net income higher than gross profit?
- current liabilities more than current asset???
 

Average

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Chart looks interesting so went and see see...SGX website put TP $3.08. Then I see:
- net income higher than gross profit?
- current liabilities more than current asset???
wah red flags ah? i oni see the P/RNAV very cheap
 
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