Wilmar International Limited *Official* (SGX: F34)

[Hoo8899]

.... as above ....

 

[nautilus]

0237 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan downgrades Wilmar International (F34.SG) to Underweight from Overweight and slashes its target price to S$4.60 from S$7.20. Says the stock is likely to underperform near term due to a regulatory overhang and competition in China; also cites an overly optimistic consensus earnings estimates and likely lackluster earnings momentum, while investors may accord a lower P/E multiple for its intended deviation from the core business. Reduces FY11/FY12 earnings forecasts by 5.3%/7.3% as the house lowers oilseeds crushing and consumer products margin assumptions; it also reduces the target P/E multiple to 14X from 20X. Says Wilmar''s deviation from its core business may attract a "conglomerate discount." Adds future property projects under its JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri-La "could see more capital reallocated to property investments than reinvested in its core agri-commodities business in future...this may lead to a lowering of the P/E that investors are willing to accord the stock." Stock off 0.2% at S$5.65. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

 

[Jarlaxle]

judging from the chart
theres are still room to go down more

the PE is relatively high compared to counter like goldenagri

 

[Chua Zhiming]

wow $4.60? short ah short !

 

[earthyblue]

wow $4.60? short ah short !

Analysts are downgrading Wilmar from them diversifying into China properties.

Personally, I feel agri-commodities is big business and unless Wilmar feels that there is no much bigger they can get, if not they really shouldn't diversify into something different.

There is this reasoning that many other corporations also diversify into properties when they make money in their core business. But let's not forget they are not McDonald's. McDonald's buy up lots of properties for their restaurants and are saving up a lot of money spent on leases. Unless Wilmar is buying China land to grow their oil seeds....

Price should be falling falling

 

[mikafire]

Kerry Properties, Shangri-La & Wilmar r all controlled by Kuok's famly..so either they use wilmar money as sharing of good fortune in china OR spread risks among themselves

anywher, hope great drop in wilmar price

 

[peterchan75]

Not sure if HE is paying homage or bailing out UNLCE.

 

[earthyblue]

Kerry Properties, Shangri-La & Wilmar r all controlled by Kuok's famly..so either they use wilmar money as sharing of good fortune in china OR spread risks among themselves

anywher, hope great drop in wilmar price

Not Wilmar's money. It's investor's money.

 

[mikafire]

Not Wilmar's money. It's investor's money.

exactly.. sigh....

 

[yellow_pen]

I MAY consider trading wilmar soon...going into long positions..but still have to see how it goes...feel that the downside may be limited already....

this is based on my personal feeling...

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[Hoo8899]

I MAY consider trading wilmar soon...going into long positions..but still have to see how it goes...feel that the downside may be limited already....

this is based on my personal feeling...

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On the chart, it is going to make a clear double bottom, or may be already hit and turn upward; indicators are oversold, poist to make a quick rebounce.

 

[Chua Zhiming]

UBS maintains wilmar $7 TP and straight away +0.12 !

amazing

 

[kinachi]

no.. !! Sell trigger for me!!

 

[hoks]

JPM downgrade, UBS maintains, what gives?

 

[Chua Zhiming]

Next they gonna say property bubble , then short it again...then say investments going well , possibility of extra dividend and whatnot..then chiong up again...then use korean tension and short it down again...

Set your own selling TP,holding period and then buy at a price where the profits become attractive to u. Just to share, my selling TP is $6.65

if cannot stand the volatility, best to buy stable div stocks like Singtel,Singpost,SPH and have a good night's sleep knowing the 4-6% dividends will always come on time.

 

[earthyblue]

Next they gonna say property bubble , then short it again...then say investments going well , possibility of extra dividend and whatnot..then chiong up again...then use korean tension and short it down again...

A lot of things we only see on surface. Like some companies, core business not making money, but report make money. People start to pump in funds because they see its good business. How to deal with the loss? Diversify to other business which is completely unrelated to their core business. If it lose money, report a bigger loss, cover the hole. No one will think core business has lost money.

It's good to be optimistic, but always be cautious because we are just small fishes in a sea filled with 2 big white sharks. Swim in the same area or go elsewhere. To each their choice.

If I want to do something big, I must first build a big profile. I must create news. The bigger the better. Example like bidding for one of the biggest football club in the world even though I am a fan of the rival club. Telling everyone its just business. Invest in education, media start to report the importance of new direction of this company with added funds and confidence. Invest in healthcare, give a good bid so that everyone will be confident.

If I am a horse owner, and my horses have to run on Saturday and Sunday. You are my friend, you ask me for tips, I give you 1 time 2 time and that's it. The 3rd time I just tell you frankly, I rear horses is for you and punters to make money or for myself to make money?

 

[worldir]

wilmar moving today... in the midst of the red sea

 

[earthyblue]

For those who love Wilmar, just for reading.

There is a call signal for BUY
=====================

SINGAPORE: Wilmar International (WIL SP) BUY
Price/Tgt: S$5.56/7.10 Mkt Cap: US$27.6b Daily Val: US$53.9m 1-Yr Hi/Lo:S$7.17/5.50

Successful in the bid for Laobian sites
Analyst: Singapore Research Team

Wilmar International has successful in the joint bids for six sites in Laobian District, Yingkou City, Liaoning Province for a total cash consideration of RMB1,357.4m (or US$204.4m). Wilmar’s investment for this project sites is approximately RMB2,627.8m (or US$395.8m), based on the maximum total investment of approximately RMB7,508.0m (or US$1,130.7m).

This investment would be larger than its first venture in Bayuquan, which Wilmar’s investment in Bayuquan is approximately RMB899.15m (or US$135 m), based on the maximum total investment of approximately RMB2,569m (or US$386m).

Assessment:
Wilmar’s investment in property has acted as a negative catalyst to its share price. Wilmar share price down 10% since the first announcement.

We believe market is overly concern on Wilmar’s property investment and diversification into non-commodity business, because
· We view this investment is relatively a better investment alternative for Wilmar to reinvest part of its strong cashflow vs investment in financial instruments.
· This investment provides a medium term opportunity to Wilmar as the both partners are established players with strong track record in high-end property development and hotel operation. High-end and commercial property development will provide higher return to this investment.

Focus on commodity unlikely to change. The property investment should not view as swift of business focus. Over the last one months, we also seeing Wilmar expanding its business reach and depth by
· Forming strong partnership with PPB Group to fast track its flour business in Indonesia and China. (refer note dated 3 Dec 2010).

· Tapping into branded consumer edible oils market in Africa with the proposed joint venture with PZ Cussons Plc (downstream player with operation in Africa) to establish a palm oil refinery and a branded consumer edible oils, spreads and margarines businesses in Nigeria.

Recommendation
We are maintaining our call and target price. For short term, Wilmar’s share price might need very strong catalyst for re-rating but do not overly negative as its margin turnaround can happen very fast with the reversal in its hedging position and cheaper soybeans from the release of China’s soybean inventory.
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I think 4th Quarter of Wilmar may not be as good as expected.

 

[Chua Zhiming]

Now already $5.70

 

[unclebutcher]

I will be getting wilmar CFD and warrants on monday. the TA indicators look good for a rebound