Buying china A50 ETF

[polyglob]

Fool you, fool me, say it for always, that's the way it should be ;-)

Using your logics, it is also questionable why anybody would be buying over-priced and risky S&P500 index ETFs and IWDA index ETF (which contains >60% of US S&P500 stocks) because:

* US banks are heavily over-leveraged, and any bank-run will render them collapsing! Given that US banks are privately run, they will not be bailed out by USA Government because USA Gov claimed that any Gov must not interfere in private market and zombie companies must be allowed to fail! (Ok, you may argue that this is not true in 2009 in USA, which then points to the fact that USA and USA Gov are full of hypocrites who do not eat what they "cooked" up!).
This is unlike China banks which are mostly state-owned and China Gov has a responsibility to bail out state-owned banks!

* US tech companies are already "trading at a truly monstrously expensive multiple of earnings" (NOT "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings")! These companies have very heavy weightage in S&P500 and IWDA and you still asking people to buy IWDA and DCA blindly at such "monstrously expensive multiple of earnings"?!
You should hear from the expert's mouth here (real expert, not those fake "self-proclaimed" experts here in HWZ) about this monstrous stock market bubble!:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...the-real-mccoy-this-is-crazy-stuff-2020-06-17

* USD and US T-Bills are the biggest ponzi scheme of all time! US Gov do not have the ability to repay all their T-Bills with real assets (not toilet paper USD) but are still issuing them like no tomorrow, and printing USD like printing toilet papers! That is why finance experts believe that USD crash is just a matter of time!
You can hear from the expert's mouth here (real expert, not those fake "self-proclaimed" experts here in HWZ):

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/dol...evitable-asia-expert-stephen-roach-warns.html


Need I say more? It is clear that Shiny Things are biased and anti-China, propagating the same anti-China propaganda like those White Western Media and their Gov officials!

Well, in fact, these White people and their allies (usually bribed by USA CIA) have been singing "The Coming Collapse of China" (see book by AMERICAN lawyer Gordon G. Chang) since 2001! People should just go to read this book yourself to remind yourself these kind of propoganda since 2001 and now is 2020!

And propogating another ponzi investment scheme like "DCA blindly into index ETF regardless of market conditions" to benefit early adopters is another story for another day!

 

[limster]

i generally try to avoid crowded trades, and US tech appears to be getting very crowded. Not everything is overvalued and there are some stocks that have very wide moats where the valuation may be justifiable.

For Zoom, I actually don't think it has a moat. Network effects do not apply that strongly. For example, even if I am using zoom, I can easily switch between google, cisco, microsoft easily and there really is nothing that forces me to stick to one system.

I actually think that google and Microsoft can eventually catch up with Zoom because of their ecosystem - eg: there is opportunity for tighter integration with other tools like google and jamboard and MS with whatever is their equivalent.

China on the other, is getting lots of negative press and it seems that many underestimated its ability to reopen the economy. On a 6mth and 1yr chart, 2801.HK outperforms SPY and IWDA, though on other timeframes, SPY outperforms. So for China you still need to get your entry point correct, and times like now, with lots of negative China news, seems to be a good time to enter.

 

[Shiny Things]

[...] wall of text [...] :

Switch to decaf.

 

[razoreigns]

Look, to be fair, Shiny is not saying US is good, China is bad. He can't read into the future and neither can we. He is saying, diversify, don't put all your eggs in one basket - that includes US. Buy everything and overweight nothing (except maybe your home country index), that way, you miss out on nothing (either the good nor the bad). You will not out perform, neither will you under perform.

 

[chrisloh65]

Not sure why you comprehend this way, because based on below Shiny Things' statements:

Firstly, are you sure you want to do this? When you buy a China ETF instead of a global ETF, you're betting that the Chinese stock market will outperform the MSCI World. For that to happen, one of three things has to happen:

* Chinese banks manage to work themselves out from under their GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans; or,
* Chinese tech companies go from "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" to "trading at a truly monstrously expensive multiple of earnings"; or,
* Chinese property companies manage to keep the Ponzi going. I have a few acquaintances who look at this stuff and none of them can figure out how the Chinese property sector hasn't imploded yet.

................
"China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades.

It is clear that:

(1) Shiny claimed that Chinese banks have GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans!
However, the fact is, this is just pure speculation that we frequently read in the Western media! There is no factual basis for such statement. Don't believe? You can go read Chinese banks' financial statements.

(2) Shiny claimed that Chinese tech companies are "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings"!
Well, strangely he didn't warn all of us here that many of the USA tech companies are now "trading at a monstrously expensive multiple of earnings" (worst than those titanically expensive stocks) when he advocated you all to buy IWDA, consisting of >60% US stocks (including those "mostrously expensive" tech stocks)!

(3) Shiny claimed that Chinese property companies are having Ponzi scheme!
Why? I have no idea.
The only ponzi scheme is know very well is USD and US T-bills! US Gov clearly has no ability to pay off all the T-bills without printing more USD like toilet papers!
And another ponzi scheme is to "DCA blindly into index ETFs regardless of market conditions" so that the earlier adopters will retire early very rich by persuading the latter comers to keep pushing up the price, very much like those MLM scheme!

From above, it is clear that Shiny Things is clearly biased and anti-China and has NO facts to backup all those bad claims he made about China and Chinese stocks!

Look, to be fair, Shiny is not saying US is good, China is bad. He can't read into the future and neither can we. He is saying, diversify, don't put all your eggs in one basket - that includes US. Buy everything and overweight nothing (except maybe your home country index), that way, you miss out on nothing (either the good nor the bad). You will not out perform, neither will you under perform.

 

[celtosaxon]

Just checked and China is 6% of my total equity allocation. Hmmm, is that too much? Let’s see, emerging markets is about 10% of the world market cap, and about 60% of that is China... seems like an acceptable weighting. I certainly wouldn’t want an overweight in China.

 

[chrisloh65]

Hearing from the expert's mouth here (real expert, not those fake "self-proclaimed" experts here in HWZ) about this monstrous stock market bubble!:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...the-real-mccoy-this-is-crazy-stuff-2020-06-17

and also hearing from the expert's mouth here (real expert, not those fake "self-proclaimed" experts here in HWZ) about USD crash being inevitable:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/dol...evitable-asia-expert-stephen-roach-warns.html

So given the high risks of USD crashing and US stock market bubble (as warned by genuine experts (not fake "self-proclaimed experts" like those in HWZ), I have totally 0% exposure to US stocks now. I had locked in all my profits from US stocks, been very profitable previously from owning US stocks but the risk is too high now.

 

[celtosaxon]

The so called real experts were all saying L shape recovery and predicting a retest of the March low. They have no credibility.

Hearing from the expert's mouth here (real expert, not those fake "self-proclaimed" experts here in HWZ) about this monstrous stock market bubble!:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...the-real-mccoy-this-is-crazy-stuff-2020-06-17

and also hearing from the expert's mouth here (real expert, not those fake "self-proclaimed" experts here in HWZ) about USD crash being inevitable:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/dol...evitable-asia-expert-stephen-roach-warns.html

So given the high risks of USD crashing and US stock market bubble (as warned by genuine experts (not fake "self-proclaimed experts" like those in HWZ), I have totally 0% exposure to US stocks now. I had locked in all my profits from US stocks, been very profitable previously from owning US stocks but the risk is too high now.

 

[chrisloh65]

real experts have no credibility? Then why are they regarded as experts and their views sought after?
For somebody to say real experts have no credibility must be an even more incredible expert! Are you or Shiny Things "incredible expert"?
From what I gathered here, both of you are not "incredible expert", in fact not even can be considered "expert", otherwise your views will be sought after and appeared in the news, not theirs!
From here we can see that both of you are not in any position to say that those genuine experts have no credibility isn't it? Really, who has NO credibility? You and Shiny Things or them?

The so called real experts were all saying L shape recovery and predicting a retest of the March low. They have no credibility.

 

[razoreigns]

Just checked and China is 6% of my total equity allocation. Hmmm, is that too much? Let’s see, emerging markets is about 10% of the world market cap, and about 60% of that is China... seems like an acceptable weighting. I certainly wouldn’t want an overweight in China.

China is about 40% of EM according to MSCI, but at 6%, should be within your tolerance.

 

[Kaypohji]

Anybody holding ishares MSCI all country Asia ex japan ETF??

 

[celtosaxon]

If they were credible, they would not have been talking about an L shape recovery and re-testing the March lows.

For those who used this to time the market, it turned out to be incredibly poor advice. I’m sure a great many sat on the sidelines and failed to reap the rewards of the market recovery as a result.

This is exactly why the overwhelming majority of investors are better off to simply DCA with a buy and hold strategy.

real experts have no credibility? Then why are they regarded as experts and their views sought after?
For somebody to say real experts have no credibility must be an even more incredible expert! Are you or Shiny Things "incredible expert"?
From what I gathered here, both of you are not "incredible expert", in fact not even can be considered "expert", otherwise your views will be sought after and appeared in the news, not theirs!
From here we can see that both of you are not in any position to say that those genuine experts have no credibility isn't it? Really, who has NO credibility? You and Shiny Things or them?

 

[celtosaxon]

Thanks for the correction!

China is about 40% of EM according to MSCI, but at 6%, should be within your tolerance.

 

[Shiny Things]

Avoid 2823 because it is a synthetic ETF - meaning it does not hold real stocks but options and ETNs etc (no idea who is counter-party, may be the ETF provider itself?)

C'mon, Chris, you're smarter than this. The only part of this that's correct is "avoid synthetic ETFs".

2823 HK is not a synthetic ETF. It used to be, but it changed from synthetic to physical at the end of 2017.

Synthetic ETFs don't hold "options and ETNs", but they do hold real stocks. (They also hold total-return swaps, which swap the return of the stocks held by the fund for the return of the target index.)

And synthetic ETFs almost always disclose their swap counterparties. Here's an example: KT4, a synthetic CSI-300 ETF listed on the SGX, lists Barcs, Deutsche, and SocGen as its swap counterparties.

Are you or Shiny Things "incredible expert"?

I mean, you just screwed up the definition of a synthetic ETF. And this is not the first time you've screwed up pretty fundamental stuff.

Chris, you keep making very basic mistakes over and over again, which give the impression that you don't know what you're talking about. Now, I'm sure that's not true, but your mistakes make people trust you less. If you calmed down, and did some research and thinking before you posted, people would trust you more (and you wouldn't keep getting infracted).

Also: switch to decaf.

 

[celtosaxon]

Yes, I have about 5% in that one, and about 10% in S&P Asia 50 Index. That is the sum total of my emerging market exposure. This makes me a bit overweight in EM and skewed to Asia (home region bias).

After looking at what broad emerging market indexes include, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and South Africa and the underlying companies... these are countries & companies that I would never invest in personally. From what I can see historically, they tend to be a more of a drag on the emerging markets index.

Anybody holding ishares MSCI all country Asia ex japan ETF??

 

[chrisloh65]

[<Yawn! -- ... WALL OF TEXTS ... -- Yawn!>]

OK, please stop parroting after me about "avoid synthetic ETFs"!
The detail is immaterial since you are going to avoid it!

Shiny Things,
Why don't you do yourself a favor and backup your below claims here?

Firstly, are you sure you want to do this? When you buy a China ETF instead of a global ETF, you're betting that the Chinese stock market will outperform the MSCI World. For that to happen, one of three things has to happen:

* Chinese banks manage to work themselves out from under their GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans; or,
* Chinese tech companies go from "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" to "trading at a truly monstrously expensive multiple of earnings"; or,
* Chinese property companies manage to keep the Ponzi going. I have a few acquaintances who look at this stuff and none of them can figure out how the Chinese property sector hasn't imploded yet.

................
"China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades.

Could you please provide facts to back up your claims that:

(1) You claimed that Chinese banks have GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans!
Where is the evidence? Please point to the Chinese bank financial statements, etc. ICBC, and show us where is the GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans?

(2) You claimed that Chinese tech companies are "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" that should be avoided!
But yet why you didn't warn all of us here that many of the USA tech companies are now "trading at a monstrously expensive multiple of earnings" (worst than those titanically expensive Chinese tech stocks) when you advocated others here to continue to buy IWDA, consisting of >65% US stocks (including those "mostrously expensive" US tech stocks)?

(3) You claimed that Chinese property companies are having Ponzi scheme!
What ponzi scheme and where are the facts and evidence?

(4) You claimed that "China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades!
Please back up your claim.

From what I can see, comparing VWRD etf (that you recommended) and 2822.HK China etf since 2012 (near their inception), 2822.HK has beaten VWRD handily since 2012! Wow! so much for underperforming market but beating VWRD (that you recommended) handily hands down!

And strangely, why you don't want to tell us that USD and US T-bills is the biggest ponzi scheme of all time in history?!
US Gov clearly has no ability to pay off all the T-bills without printing more USD like toilet papers!

And another ponzi scheme is to "DCA blindly into index ETFs regardless of market conditions" so that the earlier adopters will retire early very rich by persuading the latter comers to keep pushing up the price, very much like those MLM scheme!

Now, if you can't provide facts to backup your above claims, that brings into question whether you Shiny Things are purposely spreading lies here or you are really so ignorant and making those false claims in your post?

Well, I was told that you have been complaining about me so many times for exposing your false claims that I was inevitable to get infracture at one point or another due to my casual writings and rebutting you. But that doesn't matter as long as I can expose the truth for the goodshake of all people here!

View Postchrisloh65 wrote:
Avoid 2823 because it is a synthetic ETF - meaning it does not hold real stocks but options and ETNs etc (no idea who is counter-party, may be the ETF provider itself?)

C'mon, Chris, you're smarter than this. The only part of this that's correct is "avoid synthetic ETFs".

2823 HK is not a synthetic ETF. It used to be, but it changed from synthetic to physical at the end of 2017.

Synthetic ETFs don't hold "options and ETNs", but they do hold real stocks. (They also hold total-return swaps, which swap the return of the stocks held by the fund for the return of the target index.)

And synthetic ETFs almost always disclose their swap counterparties. Here's an example: KT4, a synthetic CSI-300 ETF listed on the SGX, lists Barcs, Deutsche, and SocGen as its swap counterparties.

View Postchrisloh65 wrote:
Are you or Shiny Things "incredible expert"?

I mean, you just screwed up the definition of a synthetic ETF. And this is not the first time you've screwed up pretty fundamental stuff.

Chris, you keep making very basic mistakes over and over again, which give the impression that you don't know what you're talking about. Now, I'm sure that's not true, but your mistakes make people trust you less. If you calmed down, and did some research and thinking before you posted, people would trust you more (and you wouldn't keep getting infracted).

Also: switch to decaf.

 

[Kaypohji]

U hold 15% of EM and it is considered as overweight and skewed?

What benchmark do you compare yourself with?

Same sentiments with the Russia, Brazil countries etc

Yes, I have about 5% in that one, and about 10% in S&P Asia 50 Index. That is the sum total of my emerging market exposure. This makes me a bit overweight in EM and skewed to Asia (home region bias).

After looking at what broad emerging market indexes include, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and South Africa and the underlying companies... these are countries & companies that I would never invest in personally. From what I can see historically, they tend to be a more of a drag on the emerging markets index.

 

[celtosaxon]

If you add up the market capitalization of EM stocks, they represent about 10% of the value of all equities worldwide. So I’m about 50% overweight. I have gone as high as 2x overweight, but won’t go higher than that.

Skewed because Asia represents 75% of total EM, and I’m sitting at 100%.

U hold 15% of EM and it is considered as overweight and skewed?

What benchmark do you compare yourself with?

Same sentiments with the Russia, Brazil countries etc

 

[Kaypohji]

Why do u choose to follow the proportion and keep it less than 10%?

U r into the theory of diversifying based on world index ??

I’m thinking to have more than 10% like about 50% of my portfolio

If you add up the market capitalization of EM stocks, they represent about 10% of the value of all equities worldwide. So I’m about 50% overweight. I have gone as high as 2x overweight, but won’t go higher than that.

Skewed because Asia represents 75% of total EM, and I’m sitting at 100%.

 

[chrisloh65]

In terms of asset allocation based on market cap, you have to be careful because it means the more over-valued a market is, the higher their market cap and higher weightage you would give it. I personally do the reverse, and avoid over-crowded trades (just like limster), hence I now have 0% exposure to US stock market since US stock market is now a GARGANTUAN bubble!

Why do u choose to follow the proportion and keep it less than 10%?

U r into the theory of diversifying based on world index ??

I’m thinking to have more than 10% like about 50% of my portfolio